China Takes On Greater Import For Japan's Firms
China reaches economic milestones on a regular basis, and this year it is set to replace the U.S. as Japan's biggest trading partner. That puts Japan in a difficult position: It is realizing its future will be increasingly tied to China at a time when many Japanese are worried about their fast-rising neighbor.
Recent diplomatic disputes have stirred fresh concerns in Japan about China's growing political ambitions and military might. Last month, Japan protested after its warships chased a Chinese submarine out of Japanese waters.
A poll released Dec. 18 by Japan's Cabinet Office shows that the number of Japanese who say they have "friendly feelings" toward China has fallen to 37.6%, the lowest figure since the poll began in 1978. Last Wednesday, China summoned Japan's ambassador to officially protest a decision by Tokyo to grant former Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui a tourist visa -- Beijing claims self-ruled Taiwan is a part of China's territory.
MANAGING THE YEN
Japan Has a Currency Puzzle
But recent trade numbers tell a different story. Japan's current economic recovery has been driven largely by trade, and China has risen to become the single biggest contributor to trade growth. Combined imports and exports of goods and services accounted for about a third of Japan's growth rate of 1.9% in the fiscal year ended March 2004, according to the Cabinet Office. While exports to the U.S., Japan's traditional leading market, have been flat, exports to China have been increasing in recent years at a blazing annual rate of about 30%. Japan's trade with China, including Hong Kong, topped the U.S. in monthly figures for the first time in August 2003.
Now China is on course to pass the U.S. in annual terms. In the first 11 months of this year, China and Hong Kong's trade in goods and services with Japan totaled 20.21 trillion yen, or $194.93 billion, compared with 18.77 trillion yen with the U.S.
Japan's combination of political concerns and economic need regarding China for now could lead to a relationship like that of Germany and France, which maintain strong commercial ties despite mutual suspicions. In the long run, analysts say, Japan's growing ties to China eventually could loosen Tokyo's traditional focus on Washington, a move that could alter the balance of power in Asia.
Nicholas Lardy, A senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington, says, "Businesses and politicians pay attention to where the marginal growth comes from. The U.S. is still big, but the rapid growth is coming from China."
A greater emphasis on China already is apparent in Japan's private sector, where companies increasingly have focused on China since the mid-1990s. Japanese car companies, once latecomers to China, produced about 330,000 cars there in the first 10 months of this year, about 20% of China's total auto production, according to analyst group Automotive Resources Asia. Consumer-electronics giant Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. has proclaimed China a global "growth engine" and says a quarter of its 290,000 world-wide employees are in China. Last year, Komatsu Ltd., Japan's largest construction-equipment maker, transferred its president of U.S. operations to China to build up its sales network. (See related article.)
This year, for the first time, camera and printer maker Canon Inc. says it has more expatriate Japanese employees in China than in any other country, as it erects new factories and tries to increase sales there. It even has more expats in China than in the U.S. -- 269 in China versus 260 in the U.S. -- reversing three decades in which the U.S. had the biggest number. "China is the market of the future," says Canon spokesman Bunji Yano.
China's growing economic presence is making itself felt more broadly in Japanese society. While English remains the language of choice for young Japanese aspiring to careers in international business, an increasing number are studying Chinese. Some parents even want to give their children a head start by sending them not only to weekend cram schools to learn the language, but also to full-time schools where most of the instruction is in Chinese.
At Yokohama Yamate Chinese School, a full-time institution just outside Tokyo that teaches kindergarten through junior high, so many Japanese are inquiring about enrollment that administrators are drawing up plans to move to bigger buildings. While most of the current 400 students are ethnic Chinese living in Japan, about a third of the applications from new students are now from Japanese, says Keimi Sugai, the school's administrative manager. "Parents nowadays want their kids to speak Chinese," she says.
Of course, China still is far from supplanting the U.S. in Japan's mind, even in economic terms. For one, Japan has far more money invested in the U.S. than in China. From 1951 to 2002, Japan built up holdings of U.S. factories, companies and other direct investments totaling 43.4 trillion yen, compared with 2.8 trillion yen in China during the same period, according to Japan's Finance Ministry. Japan also holds about $720 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds, larger than the economy of New York State.
Japan also is discovering economic downsides to its new reliance on China. For one, Japan is exporting products such as machine tools and steel used to build factories, which ultimately may be used to compete with Japan.
Still, many in Japan now expect their country to rely on China as its biggest foreign market for decades to come. Unlike the U.S. and other mature economies, China appears to offer almost limitless growth potential as its 1.3 billion people strive to raise their still relatively low living standards. If China's blazing annual economic growth rates of 9% continue, it could overtake Japan as the world's No. 2 economy after the U.S. by 2020, some economists say.
"The only place in Asia with real purchasing power is China," says Yoshikiyo Shimamine, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "Everything will be directed at China."
中国即将成为日本最大的贸易伙伴
经济连上新台阶的中国今年将取代美国成为日本的最大贸易伙伴。这将使日本处于尴尬的境地：它意识到自己的未来将越来越紧密地与中国联系在一起，而与此同时这个快速崛起的邻国却令许多日本人感到不安。
中日两国间最近爆发的几起外交争端使日本对中国不断增长的政治目标和军事力量产生了新的担忧。上个月日本向中国提出了抗议，因为它的军舰在日本领海追踪到了中国的潜艇。
日本内阁府(Cabinet Office)于12月18日公布的一份民意调查结果显示，称自己对中国有“亲近感”的日本人已经减少到了37.6%，降至1978年开始进行这项民意调查以来的最低水平。上周三，中国外交部召见了日本驻华大使，对日本政府决定向台湾前总统李登辉发放赴日旅游签证一事提出了正式抗议。中国政府认为台湾是中国领土的一部分。
但两国近来的双边贸易数据却呈现出了火热的景象。日本当前的经济复苏很大程度上是靠对外贸易拉动的，而中国已经成为日本外贸增长的最大推动因素。日本在截至2004年3月的财政年度内实现了1.9%的经济增长，而据日本内阁府称，商品和服务贸易的进出口贡献了这一增幅的约三分之一。美国以往一直是日本最大的出口市场，但日本近年来对美国的出口却停滞不前，而对中国的出口却以每年约30%的速度大幅攀升。2003年8月，日本当月与中国大陆和香港的贸易额首度超过了与美国的贸易额。
从目前情况看，中日两国的年贸易额也将超过美日年贸易额。今年前11个月，中国大陆和香港与日本间的商品和服务贸易额已经达到20.21万亿日圆，合1,949.3亿美元，而同期美日两国的双边贸易额为18.77万亿日圆。
日本目前对中国这种政治上担心、经济上需要的态度有可能使中日关系呈现出德法两国双边关系的特点。德法两国尽管存在相互猜疑，但却保持著很强的商业联系。分析人士指出，从长远看，日本与中国间联系的加强最终可能会使日本减轻对传统盟友美国的关注，而这有可能改变亚洲的力量平衡。
华盛顿国际经济研究所(Institute for International Economics)的高级研究员尼古拉斯?拉迪(Nicholas Lardy)说，企业和政治家们关注的是边际增长率，美国市场虽然仍是一个大市场，但中国市场的需求增长则要快得多。
日本的私营部门给予了中国更大关注已经成了不争的事实，自上世纪九十年代中期以来，日本企业已经越来越重视中国。日本的汽车制造商曾经是中国市场的后来者，但分析机构亚汽资源公司(Automotive Resources Asia)提供的数据显示，今年前10个月它们在华生产的汽车已经达到约33万辆，约占中国汽车总产量的20%。消费电子产业巨头松下电器产业公司(Matsushita Electric Industrial Co.)则宣称，中国是该公司的“全球增长引擎”，并说该公司全球29万雇员的四分之一在中国。去年，日本最大的建筑设备生产商小松制作所(Komatsu Ltd.)将其美国业务的总裁派到中国，以开发当地的销售网络。
而日本的照相机和打印机生产商佳能公司(Canon Inc.)今年首次宣布，中国是其派驻日籍员工最多的国家，原因是该公司在华建立了新的工厂，并正努力增加在那里的销售。该公司派驻中国的员工有269人，甚至超过了派驻美国的260人，从而改变了30年来美国一直是该公司员工最大海外派驻地的局面。佳能公司发言人Bunji Yano说，中国是该公司未来的市场。
日本社会已经更广泛地感受到了中国不断增长的经济实力。虽然有志到海外闯天下的日本青年仍会选择学习英语，但正有越来越多的日本年青人在学习中文。有些父母为使子女中文学习方面获得领先优势，不仅送孩子去周末补习班学习中文，甚至还将他们送到主要以中文授课的全日制学校学习。
东京附近的横滨山手中文学校(Yokohama Yamate Chinese School)是一所提供从幼儿园到初中教育的全日制学校，由于申请到该校就读的日本学生太多，这所学校的管理人士正计划将学校搬到更宽敞的建筑中去。虽然该校目前400名学生中的大部分是旅日华人，但据校长Keimi Sugai说，目前申请入学的新生中约有三分之一是日本人。她说，“父母们现在都想要自己的孩子说中文。”
当然，中国仍远未能取代美国在日本人心目中的地位，即使仅就经济方面而言也是如此。理由之一是，日本对美国的投资要远高于对中国的投资。日本财务省(Finance Ministry)的统计数据显示，从1951年到2002年，日本对美国的直接投资达43.4万亿日圆，而在此期间对中国的直接投资只有2.8万亿日圆。日本还持有价值7,200亿美元左右的美国国债，这一数额要高于纽约州的经济规模。
日本发现自己对中国经济新近形成的依赖有可能对自己造成不利影响。比如说，日本向中国出口施工机械和钢铁，而用这些产品建造起来的工厂最终可能会对日本构成竞争。
不过也有许多日本人预计中国在未来数十年内能够成为日本最大的海外市场。与美国和其他成熟的经济体不同，13亿中国人努力提高其生活水平的进程会提供几乎是无穷无尽的需求增长潜力。一些人估计，如果中国仍能维持高达9%的年经济增长率，那么到2020年时它将取代日本成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体。
日本第一生命经济研究所(Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute)的首席经济学家Yoshikiyo Shimamine说，中国是亚洲唯一真正具有购买力的国家，中国对各种商品都有需求。
