A slow boat to China is no longer good enough
Odete Sousa, a Brazilian who lives in Liechtenstein, is one of the more unlikely lobbyists to emerge from the most heavily contested aviation route battle in the US in the past five years the right to fly direct to China.
But the emergence of Ms Sousa, a former Continental flight attendant who has written to the Department of Transportation to back the company's application, reflects the fact that airlines will stop at nothing to boost their chances of winning a slice of a potentially lucrative market.
In her emotional letter she said she had been laid off since September 11 2001. “On the basis of a tourist trip and reading, I concluded that flights between the US and China would become increasingly important in the years to come.”
She had studied Chinese to improve her job prospects. “I hope to return to Continental in the spring of 2005 as a qualified Chinese speaker on flights to China,” she said.
It remains to be seen whether her commitment to self-improvement will sway the DOT officials who next month are expected to pick two more passenger airlines to offer services to China in 2005 and 2006 the first such awards for more than 20 years. What is not in doubt is the size of the stakes.
An expansive US-China bilateral aviation agreement, signed in July, allows new US cargo and passenger carriers to enter the market. It envisages a five-fold rise in flights by 2010, phasing in 200 additional flights a week.
Karan Bhatia, assistant secretary for aviation and international affairs, talks of a landmark agreement of great significance to US airlines, consumers and the broader US economy. “Over the next seven years the total economic impact for the US will be $12bn, from [the opening up of] passenger and cargo routes.”
But the experience of US airlines already flying directly to China suggests the route is not a licence to print money Northwest ended its non-stop flights from Detroit because it could not make the route pay.
Yet establishing a foothold in China, where demand is expected to boom, is seen as critical. Delta forecasts its proposed Atlanta service will attract 165,000 passengers annually.
American Airlines has marshalled the support of 26 senators, 78 house representatives, seven governors, 24 mayors and 38 airports. Delta and Continental have submitted email-freezing blockbuster applications, sending at least 10,000 employee letters.
These applications offer an insight into why convenient access to China is considered vital. Coca Cola, which backs Delta's bid to fly from Atlanta in 2006, noted China was its fifth largest market. .
American's proposed Chicago-to-Shanghai service has flushed out unexpected China aficionados across the academic and commercial spectrum. The Wartburg Theological seminary in Dubuque, Iowa argued it would increase tourism and cultural ties, while Chicago's Museum of Contemporary Art said its Chinese exhibition would have cost less had American served the Shanghai airport.
In another twist, two passengers wrote to the DOT to argue in favour of fewer services from New York. Backing Delta's bid, they attacked Continental's plan to offer a Newark-Beijing service from 2005. “As New Yorkers we assure the department that we do not need any more non-stop services to China,” they declared.
Their contention goes to the heart of the inter-airline battle. Delta says if its application is successful it will open up a direct service from the southeast of the US. “You need to go to Chicago or California and change planes, which is not convenient,” says Scott Yohe,Delta's senior vice-president for government affairs. “Chicago does not need another service [ahead of] the south and the southeast. If American got this, three out of six daily non-stops would be from Chicago.”
Continental, which is battling American for the 2005 rights, nevertheless has a strong case for flying from Newark. But American, as the world's largest airline, seems the natural next-in-line to break into the China market. The Oneworld alliance, of which it is part, is the only international alliance without direct access from the US to the country. Moreover its previous efforts in 1998 were hampered by United, which announced plans to open a Chicago-Shanghai service, undermining American's case for the same route. But United put its plans on ice and did not start flights until October this year. That perceived unfairness could buoy American's case for 2005.
As Will Ris, senior vice-president, government affairs at American, says: “United has said they won't make money if American gets the routes, as there are not enough people to serve. We look at it from a 10-year perspective. It is absolutely clear that China is where you want to be five or ten years from now even if you don't break even initially.”
瓜分中国航线之战
奥黛特?苏萨(Odete Sousa)是个巴西人，生活在列支敦士登。过去5年中，美国各航空公司为获得中国直飞权展开了激烈的航线争夺战，而苏萨女士在这场争斗中以一个比较令人意外的游说者面目出现了。
但苏萨女士的出现反映出一个事实：各航空公司都想在一个可能有利可图的市场上分一杯羹，而且为了提高胜算将不惜采取任何手段。苏萨女士原是大陆航空(Continental flight)的乘务员，她向美国交通部致信，支持公司的申请。
在这封动情的信中，她表示，自2001年9月11日以来，她一直处于停职状态。“基于观光旅行和阅读的感知，我断定，在未来几年中，美国与中国间的航班将变得越来越重要。”
她已经学了中文，以期改善就职前景。“我希望在2005年春季重返大陆航空，担任飞往中国航班上一名说汉语的合格乘务员，”她写道。
她进行自我提高的努力是否会打动交通部的官员，这还有待观察。这些官员们预计将于下月再挑选两家客运航空公司，在2005年和2006年向中国提供服务。这是20年多来首次提供这种授权，这笔“赌金”规模之大毋庸置疑。
一份广泛的中美双边航空协议于7月签署，它允许新的美国货运和客运航空公司进入中国市场。该协议设想，到2010年，飞往中国的航班数将增长5倍， 每周逐渐多开200次航班。
卡兰?巴蒂亚(Karan Bhatia)是负责航空与国际事务的助理部长，他认为这一里程碑式的协议对美国航空公司、消费者，以及更广泛的美国经济都意义重大。“未来7年间，(开设)客运和货运航线对美国经济影响的总额将达120亿美元。”
但一些美国航空公司已在直飞中国，它们的经历表明，这条航线不是一张印钞许可证。西北航空(Northwest)停飞了从底特律到中国的直达班机，因为公司无法使这条航线赢利。
但在中国取得立足点被认为非常重要，因为预计来自中国的需求将迅速提高。达美航空(Delta)预测其拟议的亚特兰大服务每年将吸引16.5万名乘客。
美利坚航空(American Airlines)已征得26位参议员、78位众议员、7位州长、24位市长和38个机场的支持。达美航空(Delta)和大陆航空已经以邮件轰炸方式提交了大量申请，并向员工发出了至少1万封信。
这些申请让人了解到，为什么方便地进入中国被视为至关重要。达美航空申请2006年开通从亚特兰大飞往中国的航线，予以支持的可口可乐公司(Coca Cola)指出，中国是它的第五大市场。
美利坚航空拟开通芝加哥至上海的航线，没想到该提议在学术界和商界引出许多中国迷。爱荷华州迪比克的沃特堡神学院认为，这将增加旅游和文化交往；而芝加哥的当代艺术馆则表示，如果美利坚航空开通至上海的航线，它的中国展成本就会便宜些。
另一件意想不到的事是，两名乘客写信给运输部，赞成减少从纽约飞往中国的航班。两名乘客支持达美航空的申请，并攻击大陆航空自2005年起开设纽渥克至北京航班的计划。两位乘客宣布：“作为纽约人，我们向运输部保证，我们不再需要直飞中国的航班了。”
他们的观点触及了航空公司间争斗的核心。达美航空表示，如果它的申请获批，它将开设一条从美国东南地区直飞中国的航线。“现在你需要前往芝加哥或加利福尼亚转机，这很不方便，”达美航空负责政府事务的高级副总裁斯科特?瑶何(Scott Yohe)说，“相对南部和东南地区而言，芝加哥并不更需要另一条航线。如果美利坚航空得到这条线，那么6个每日直达航班中将有3个会从芝加哥起飞。”
但是，大陆航空正与美利坚航空争夺2005年向中国的直飞权，它很有理由从纽渥克起飞。但作为全球最大的航空公司，美利坚航空似乎理所当然是下一家进入中国市场的公司。在国际航空联盟中，美利坚航空所在的星空联盟(Oneworld)是唯一没有从美国直飞中国航线的联盟。此外，美利坚航空之前在1998年的努力受到联合航空的阻挠，后者当时宣布了开设芝加哥至上海航班的计划，令美利坚航空没有理由再开设同样的航线。但联合航空一直冻结该计划，直到今年10月才开出航班。这种可觉察的不公平现象可能有助于美利坚航空获得2005年的航权。
正如美利坚航空负责政府事务的高级副总裁威尔?里斯(Will Ris)所说：“联合航空曾说，如果美利坚航空得到这些航线，它们就赚不到钱，因为服务对象不够多。我们从未来10年的角度来看这一点。绝对清楚的是，中国是你从现在起5至10年内肯定要进入的市场，哪怕你一开始无法实现盈亏平衡。”
