What If Dollar Keeps Falling?
Every range has its outer limit, and forecasting how low the dollar can go against the world's major currencies, especially the euro, is no different.
Few currency strategists see the U.S. currency falling further than $1.45 to the euro, weakening from $1.3387 now. But in a recent report that sets the synapses singing, economists at ING Financial Markets analyzed what the world -- and particularly Europe -- would look like if the dollar slid to $1.80. The answer makes for some unpleasant reading, especially if your native tongue is German, French or Italian.
Even the brain trust at ING doesn't see the dollar falling another 26% from current levels. In fact, during the next three years they don't see the dollar falling much below $1.40 to the euro.
But they contend that there are good reasons to examine the impact of a much weaker dollar -- and a much stronger euro.
For one, an additional rise in the euro to $1.80 from current levels represents only about half of the percentage-point climb the euro already has achieved in advancing from its October 2000 low of 82.28 U.S. cents to its Dec. 7 peak of $1.3469.
"A further rise to $1.80 wouldn't be that unusual, given the tendency of currencies to overshoot their fair values," says Rob Carnell , a senior economist at ING in London.
Indeed, from its 1985 highs to its 1987 lows, the dollar tumbled 54% against the yen, and from those 1985 highs to its post-World War II low in 1995, it plunged 70%. Or consider that before the war, the British pound was worth $4.86; by February 1985, it fetched only $1.03. So, if history is any guide, a potential 54% decline in the dollar to the $1.80 level from its all-time highs against the euro might not seem so far out, after all.
Moreover, there are good reasons why the dollar could sink further. One is the huge U.S. deficit in its current account -- the broadest measure of trade in goods and services.
Currently, the U.S. is relying on foreigners' purchases of dollar-denominated assets to fund that deficit. That means that U.S. assets have to remain sufficiently attractive for them to do so, either because they yield high enough returns or because there is a prospect for decent capital gains. If foreigners don't purchase U.S. assets -- because they don't like the returns, already hold enough U.S. investments or for some other reason -- they don't need to buy dollars. That means the dollar will fall. A weaker dollar in turn helps to reduce the deficit by making U.S. exports cheaper while raising the price of imports.
A recent study by economists Maurice Obstfeld of the University of California at Berkeley and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University reckons that the dollar, adjusted to reflect trade between the U.S. and other countries, must fall by a further 20% to 40% to bring the current account deficit down to a sustainable level.
The two academics point out that in the late 1980s, the trade-weighted dollar fell 40% against the currencies of U.S. trading partners. That was a period during which the U.S. current-account deficit peaked at 3.5% of gross domestic product. Now that deficit is running at 5.6% of GDP, with many economists projecting it to rise to above 6%. Yet the trade-weighted dollar has receded only about 15% from its 2002 peak.
Bottom line: The dollar's decline hasn't yet run its course, if the current-account deficit is to be brought down to sustainable levels.
Exactly how far the dollar eventually falls against individual currencies is a hard call. A lot depends on how much Asian currencies, which represent countries that account for the lion's share of the U.S. trade deficit, eventually rise against the dollar. The more they climb, the less pressure there is on the euro to rise. Still, Mr. Carnell says that examining the impact of further euro appreciation to $1.80 "isn't exactly radical."
Now for the good news: The odds of the euro rallying to $1.80 aren't very high.
Considering that European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet called the common currency's rise "brutal" and "unwelcome" when it rose to $1.30 in mid-November, it is unlikely the bank won't act aggressively to stem further rallies.
如果美元“跌跌”不休
任何区间都有边界，预测美元兑全球主要货币，尤其是欧元，到底能下跌到何种地步也不例外。
没有几个汇市策略师认为美元会进一步下跌至1欧元兑1.45美元的水平。但ING Financial Markets的经济师们描绘了跌至1.80美元时世界的景象，尤其是欧洲的景象。从他们的描述中看出，若你来自德国、法国或意大利的话，情况对你有些不妙。
即便是ING的经济师们也不相信美元会从当前水平再下跌26%。实际上，过去3年来，他们一直不认为美元兑欧元会跌破1.40美元。
不过，他们承认将美元走软的影响推向极至来加以研究并非没有道理。
首先，若欧元从当前水平进一步走高至1.80美元，其百分比涨幅仅仅为欧元从2000年10月份低点0.8228美元至今年12月7日高点1.3469美元涨幅的约一半。
ING驻伦敦资深经济师Rob Carnell称，“进一步涨至1.80美元并没有那么不同寻常，因为汇率经常偏离其合理价值。”
实际上，从1985年高点至1987年低点，美元兑日圆下跌了54%，从1985年高点至1995年创出的二战后低点，该汇率下跌了70%。而二战前英镑价值4.86美元，到1985年2月份时价值仅为1.03美元了。因此美元再下跌54%，至1.80美元水平并非遥不可及。
而且，有理由支持美元进一步走低。其中之一是美国巨额的经常项目赤字。
目前，美元依赖外国投资者购买美元计价资产来填补这一缺口。这意味著美国资产不得不保持对外国投资者足够的吸引力，或者回报率较高，或者能带来可观的资本增值。
若外国投资者不购买美国资产，他们将不需要买入美元。这意味著美元将下跌。美元走软反过来将有助于改善美国经常项目赤字状况。
加州大学(University of California)伯克利分校经济学家Maurice Obstfeld和哈佛大学(Harvard University)的Kenneth Rogoff最近的研究显示，经调整以反映美国和其他国家贸易状况后，美元必须再下跌20%至40%，以使经常项目赤字下降到可能持续的水平。
两位学者指出，八十年代晚期，美元贸易加权汇率下跌了40%。这一时期，美国经常项目赤字达到高点，占国内生产总值(GDP)的3.5%。而目前的赤字占到GDP的5.6%，而且很多经济学家预计将进一步上升至6%左右，而贸易加权美元汇率较2002年高点仅下滑了15%左右。
因此，若将经常项目赤字收缩至可持续的水平，美元的下跌就仍未到位。
美元兑具体货币的最终跌幅很难预测。很大程度上依赖于亚洲货币兑美元最终的涨幅，因为同亚洲国家的贸易逆差导致了大部分的美国经常项目赤字。亚洲国家货币兑美元升幅越大，欧元的上涨动力就越弱。Carnell称，欧元进一步走强至1.80美元并非无稽之谈。
现在公布好消息：欧元涨至1.80美元的可能性不算很大。
欧洲央行行长特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)在11月中旬欧元涨至1.30美元时表示，欧元的上涨“猛烈”“不受欢迎”，因此欧洲央行有可能大笔干预遏制欧元进一步走强。
