Surging Economy, Stock Market Fuel Recent Revival of Big Mergers
Amid an improved economy and climbing stock prices, the long-dormant market for big mergers is showing signs of awakening.
So far this month, deals valued at a total of $80 billion have been unveiled around the globe -- compared with $97 billion for all of December last year -- and several potential blockbusters are under consideration. While the number of transactions is roughly in line with that seen in recent years, the dollar value has soared -- in the U.S. that figure is up about 30% in 2004 compared with last year.
Even with several big transactions still in the works, global deals this year already total $1.7 trillion -- up from $1.3 trillion for all of 2003, according to Thomson Financial.
The activity in the U.S. is especially remarkable given the recent weakening of the dollar and moves by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The Fed is widely expected to boost its target on a key short-term interest rate by another quarter-percentage point to 2.25% today, in what would be its fifth consecutive tightening this year. In the past, such moves augured a slowdown in the economy.
Executives, bankers and lawyers cite many reasons for the uptick, from high stock prices and healthier balance sheets that provide ample currency for purchasers to a recent easing of fuel prices that has reassured them about costs next year. Indeed, the rebounding economy is sowing optimism about the future -- a key to sparking a deal surge.
Yesterday, enthusiasm over the wave of deals helped push the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index to its highest level since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a nine-month high.
Even the interest-rate increases are helping drive deals, since buyers want to move while interest rates remain near historic lows and financing is relatively inexpensive.
Strategic needs also are a big factor; technology and telecommunications, for instance, two booming industries from the 1990s that suffered heavy setbacks in the downturn early this decade, have seen several big deals lately among companies seeking new growth. The deals could force further industry consolidation and boost competition.
Yesterday's agreement for Oracle Corp. to acquire PeopleSoftInc. for $10.3 billion after an 18-month pursuit demonstrates how software companies that are perceived as leaders in their niches are flush with cash and have enjoyed big run-ups in their stock prices, giving them two forms of currency to use in big deals. Since hitting a 52-week low in August, Oracle's stock has risen 50%, boosting its market value to $68.1 billion.
In explaining Oracle's acquisition to investors yesterday, Chief Executive Larry Ellison noted that the company believes both the economy and spending are improving.
In another big technology deal, International Business Machines Corp. agreed last week to sell its personal-computer division to China's Lenovo Group Ltd. for $1.25 billion. Meanwhile, two far bigger transactions are under discussion, one a roughly $22.5 billion merger between health-care company Johnson & Johnson and medical-products maker Guidant Corp., the other an estimated $33 billion deal between telecommunications giants Nextel Communications Inc. and Sprint Corp.
In Europe, mergers are being driven in part by an ongoing wave of corporate restructuring, which began in 2001. Earlier this month, Telecom Italia SpA bid �20 billion, or about $26.5 billion, to buy the 44% of its mobile affiliate Telecom Italia Mobile SpA in one such example, a deal that would allow Italy's biggest phone carrier to manage both companies more efficiently.
Several smaller firms, meanwhile, have been snapped up by U.S. purchasers. Earlier this month, Cendant Corp. agreed to acquire ebookers PLC, one of Europe's leading Internet travel sites, for $404 million. Honeywell International Inc., meanwhile, agreed to come in as a so-called white-knight buyer and pay a total $2.4 billion for Novar PLC, a British industrial holding company. And last week Gambro AB of Sweden said it will sell its U.S. dialysis clinics to California-based dialysis treatment provider DaVita Inc. for $3.1 billion.
It helps that the stock market has warmly greeted many of the recent deals, encouraging a self-fulfilling enthusiasm that has other companies considering deals of their own. Though most recent transactions have been aimed at capturing and increasing earnings growth, a riskier proposition than deals that offer clear gains through cost-cutting, the shares of acquirers and potential acquirers generally have remained robust, signaling the market's approval. Often large transactions cause an acquirer's stock to fall, amid concerns of overpaying.
"The environment for risk-taking has changed in the past six months," says Jack Levy, co-chairman of mergers at Goldman Sachs. "Before then, boards [of directors] were fearful the market would not reward deal-making."
Indeed, U.S. companies are paying a premium of 28% above the share prices of targeted companies to get them to agree to deals, compared with 22% in 2003. That suggests buyers are more willing to open their wallets for the right acquisition -- and that they feel pressure to shell out now before an improving economy sends deal prices even higher. Shares of General Electric Co., for instance, are up 10% since Nov. 1, despite three expensive pending purchases, including a $1.1 billion acquisition of water-treatment company Ionics Inc., for which GE is paying a nearly 50% premium.
At the same time, Mr. Levy and others caution that a return to the frenzied deal-making of the late 1990s is unlikely for the foreseeable future -- and even the pace of blockbuster deals might ease. "My sense is that executives are feeling better about doing deals," he says. "That said, we are not back to a late '90s M&A market -- make no mistake about it."
And not all deals have been embraced. Yesterday, shares of 3Com Corp. dropped 36 cents, or 8.1%, to $4.08 on the Nasdaq Stock Market, after the network-equipment maker agreed to buy TippingPoint Technologies for about $430 million, as it beefs up security for offerings such as voice-over Internet Protocol.
Going forward, many larger companies say they will focus on smaller, strategic acquisitions instead of headline grabbers, especially in the technology industry. Yahoo Inc. has acquired 14 businesses over the past two years for example, and recently said its acquisition focus had shifted from larger-scale deals to acquiring smaller companies for talent and technology to support or complement its existing businesses. People who have spoken with Google Inc. expect it too will stick to smaller acquisitions, preferring to build from within.
Cisco Systems Inc., a serial acquirer just a few years ago, has resumed its acquisitiveness, buying 11 companies so far this year, compared with four last year. But none of its deals this year has been valued at more than $200 million, and the company is aiming for small acquisitions. At Cisco's annual analyst conference last week, Chief Executive John Chambers reiterated his distaste for big deals with established companies that are very different than Cisco. Instead, Cisco, the world's largest maker of computer-networking equipment, is aiming at small, technology-focused companies to plug holes in its product line or expertise.
Hewlett-Packard Co., which last did a megadeal in 2002 when it bought Compaq Computer Corp. for $19 billion, has engaged in a series of acquisitions over the past year. But most of the deals the Palo Alto, Calif., company has done have been small purchases of closely held software companies, or regional information technology-services companies.
Similarly, Microsoft Corp. expects to supplement its growth with acquisitions, said John Connors , the company's chief financial officer, in a recent earnings call. It certainly has a potential M&A war chest: Even with its recent dividend and buyback plans, Microsoft has over $50 billion in cash and generates $1 billion each month. Still, many of its acquisitions are expected to be in the $50 million to $500 million range, for companies with software technologies that complement its core business software in areas like security, virus protection, document management and software for making Windows servers work better with other kinds of software.
At the least, the surge in big deals persuades some investors that the U.S. stock market retains value even after two years of reasonably strong profits.
"To the extent that there's a rise in M&A, that suggests there's real value to the market," says William Miller, of mutual-fund giant Legg Mason in Baltimore. Mr. Miller predicts more foreign companies will target U.S. acquisitions in the next year.
经济好转唤醒大额并购
经济好转和股市回暖的气氛日渐浓厚，沉睡多时的大型企业并购市场也渐渐透出苏醒的迹象。
本月至今，全球各地已经宣布的并购交易总额已达800亿美元，还有几起巨额并购交易尚在酝酿之中。相比之下，去年12月整整一个月的交易额是970亿美元。虽然交易数量这几年变化不大，但交易额却增长迅猛──今年美国的并购交易额就较去年激增了约30%。
虽然还有几项大额交易仍在协商谈判，但Thomson Financial的数据显示，今年全球并购交易总额已经达到1.7万亿美元之巨──而去年全年的交易总额是1.3万亿美元。
近来美元走软和美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)加息之举更是为美国的并购市场添了一把旺火。周二Fed作出了今年连续第五次加息的决策，联邦基金利率上调0.25个百分点至2.25%。加息一般是为了减缓经济的过快增长。
企业高层管理人士、银行家和律师们为并购交易的增长提供了种种理由，从股价上涨、企业资产负债状况好转从而具备了充足现金可用于收购，到近期燃料价格回落缓解了企业界对明年成本上涨的担忧等等，不一而足。实际上，编织企业并购市场美好未来的正是经济复苏──引发交易激增的关键因素。
对并购交易的热望推动标准普尔500指数周二升至911以来的最高点，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数也收于9个月高点。
即使Fed加息也有助于促成企业并购交易，因为收购方希望在利率仍接近历史低点，融资成本仍然相对偏低的情况下动手收购。
发展战略的需要也是一个重要因素。比如说，科技和电讯这两个从上世纪九十年代初开始蓬勃发展但在本世纪初遭受重挫的行业，最近就有几家业内公司宣布了几项大型并购交易，目的就是寻求新的发展契机。并购会迫使行业进一步整合并提升竞争力。
周二，甲骨文(Oracle Corp.)宣布终于达成以103亿美元收购仁科(PeopleSoft Inc.)的交易，为长达18个月的纠纷划上了一个句号。甲骨文对仁科孜孜不倦的追求表明，在自己所擅长领域占据领先地位的软件公司手中的现金是如何充盈，股价涨势是如何凌厉，这为它们提供了进行巨额收购的两种货币形式。从8月份创出52周低点以来，甲骨文股价已经飙升了50%，市值激增到681亿美元。
甲骨文首席执行长拉里?埃利森(Larry Ellison)周二向投资者解释这项收购交易时称，公司相信整体经济和支出形势都在好转。
科技行业的另一桩大额交易是国际商业机器公司(International Business Machines Corp.)上周同意将旗下个人电脑业务以12.5亿美元的价格出售给中国的联想集团(Lenovo Group Ltd.)。此外，还有两项数额更大的交易正在协商之中。其一是健康护理公司强生(Johnson & Johnson)和医疗产品制造商Guidant Corp.之间价格约为225亿美元的交易，另一桩交易的价格估计高达330亿美元，大型电讯企业Nextel Communications Inc.和斯普林特(Sprint Corp.)正在谈判。
在欧洲，并购交易的部分原因在于始于2001年的企业重组浪潮波澜起伏。本月早些时候，Telecom Italia SpA出价200亿欧元（约合265亿美元）收购了自己旗下移动业务分支机构Telecom Italia Mobile SpA的44%股权。作为意大利规模最大的电话公司，Telecom Italia SpA此举可以同时提高两家公司的运营效率。
此外，还有一些小型公司纷纷被美国企业收购。本月早些时候，Cendant Corp.同意出资4.04亿美元收购欧洲领先旅游网站之一ebookers PLC；霍尼韦尔(Honeywell International Inc.)同意充当所谓的“白衣骑士”，以总额24亿美元的价格收购了英国工业控股公司Novar PLC；瑞典的Gambro AB上周表示，将把旗下的美国临床透析业务出售给总部位于加州的透析治疗供应商DaVita Inc.，价格是31亿美元。
股市对这些交易反应良好也有所助益，这让其他公司也信心倍增，开始考虑类似的计划。虽然最近这几桩交易的目的在于获得并提升收益增长，而且比削减成本等收益增长方式更加冒险，但收购方和潜在收购方的股价普遍表现极为强劲，表明了市场的认可态度。一般说来，大额收购交易中的收购方股价会下跌，因为投资者担心它们可能出价过高。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)负责并购交易的联席董事长杰克?利维(Jack Levy)说，这半年来投资者的风险态度已经大为转变。以前，公司董事会总是担心收购交易难以在市场获得良好反应。
实际上，目前作为收购方的美国公司支付的价格往往要比被收购公司股价高出28%，而2003年的溢价比例是22%。这表明收购方更愿意为合适的收购对象支付较高价格，也表示他们担心经济形势进一步好转后收购价会更高。以通用电气(General Electric Co.)股价为例，虽然一共有三项价格不菲的收购交易未有定论，但其股价自11月1日以来已经上涨了10%。其中之一就是以11亿美元收购水处理公司Ionics Inc.的计划，这笔收购价的溢价已经接近50%。
不过，利维等人也指出，在可以预见的将来，企业并购市场不太可能重现九十年代末期那种疯狂，即使是巨额交易的步伐也会放慢。他说，“我感觉企业高层管理人士对谈判协商、达成交易感到更得心应手了。也就是说，现在并不像九十年代末期那样，只要是并购交易就肯定没错。”
而且，也不是所有交易都能得到市场认可。3Com Corp.的股价周三下跌了36美分，收于4.08美元，跌幅8.1%。之前这家网络设备生产商刚刚同意用大约4.3亿美元的价格收购TippingPoint Technologies，旨在强化互联网语音传输协议(VOIP)等服务的安全保障。
展望未来，许多大公司都表示会著眼于规模较小、战略性的收购交易，而不以吸引外界注意力为首要目的。比如说，最近这两年，雅虎(Yahoo Inc.)大大小小一共收购了14项业务，最近表示其收购重点将从大型交易转向小型企业，主要是那些具备特定专才和技术、能够为雅虎现有业务提供支持或者互相补充的业务。同Google Inc.管理层交谈过的人也表示，Google也预计自己会瞄准较小型企业进行收购。
短短几年前频频出手收购的思科系统(Cisco Systems Inc.)又重新找回了积极收购的感觉。今年至今已经完成了11起收购，而去年全年才只有4起。不过，今年的这些交易每一笔都不超过2亿美元，思科也正在选择小型公司来进行收购。公司首席执行长约翰?钱伯斯(John Chambers)在上周召开的思科系统年度分析师会议上重申，他不喜欢和那些已经具备一定规模和实力的大公司谈判收购交易，它们和思科区别太大。相反，思科正在寻找规模不大的技术公司，来弥补思科系列产品或专业技能上的不足。
2002年以190亿美元天价收购康柏电脑(Compaq Computer Corp.)的惠普公司(Hewlett-Packard Co.)去年也收购了不少公司，但大多数都是未上市小型软件公司，或地区性信息技术服务公司。
微软(Microsoft Corp.)首席财务长约翰?康纳斯(John Connors)在最近的收益预期报告会议上也表示，微软希望通过收购来提高业绩增长。微软无疑具备强大的收购实力，即使完成了最近的派息和股票回购计划，微软手中的现金依然超过500亿美元，每个月还再添10亿。不过，微软的许多收购计划估计仍然会在5,000万到5亿美元之间，主要是一些配合微软核心软件业务的软件技术公司，例如保安、防毒、文件管理、以及提高微软伺服器性能的其他软件类别。
不过说到底，大型并购交易的激增让一些投资者相信，即使经历了整整两年的可观涨势，美国股市依然蕴含价值。
大型共同基金Legg Mason驻巴尔的摩的威廉?米勒(William Miller)说，从并购交易增加的程度来看，股市内含真正的价值。他预计明年会有更多外国公司来收购美国企业。
