FOCUS - China cools economy, but tight money policies to remain in 2005
China can claim some success in the battle to cool its economy in 2004 with a series of macro-control policies helping prevent another boom-bust cycle.
But in the year ahead Beijing will need to keep those domestic controls in place to ensure steady but manageable growth while it works to deflect pressure on its currency and its trade policies from major trading partners, analysts told Agence France-Presse.
""Generally, the current tightening policies will stay in place,"" said Qu Hongbin, economist at HSBC in Hong Kong.
""The trend won't change while there will be some fine tuning of policies, until the problems of investment overheating and (the shortages of) oil, power and coal are eased,"" Qu told AFP.
By implementing curbs on lending to overheating sectors, such as steel and real estate, and raising interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, China's leadership managed to ease investor fears the world's fastest growing major economy was on the verge of spinning out of control as it did in the mid-1990s.
Full-year gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to hit nine pct in 2004 with booming exports continuing to drive expansion, as manufacturers reap the benefits of the country's cheap labor and a currency that is widely perceived to be undervalued.
Analysts generally expect slightly slower growth in 2005.
For over a decade the yuan has effectively been pegged to the dollar at about 8.28 to the US unit, a level China's major trading partners, especially the United States, claim gives it an upper hand by making exports cheaper and imports more expensive.
As China's trade balance with the US is likely to exceed last year's 124 bln usd record surplus, pressure on Beijing to revalue the yuan will not ease, even as the country's leaders insist they are working to make the exchange rate regime more flexible over the longer term.
China allows its currency to trade in a narrow band around the 8.28 level, and it has repeatedly promised the international community it is working to widen that range.
Citigroup economist Huang Yiping said he expects ""a modest band-widening, to plus or minus three pct, within in the next six months.""
A move could, however, take longer as Premier Wen Jiabao has vowed not to give in to speculative pressure, citing concerns over economic problems at home which center around strengthening a weak financial system.
""Even if China decides to reform its exchange rate policy, it will probably do it at a time when the market least expects it,"" Huang said.
Reform of its ailing banks, stalled stock markets and reform of state enterprises remain hugely important ahead of liberalization of its financial sector at the end of 2005 as mandated by Beijing's pledges to the World Trade Organization.
Amid efforts to rein in commercial lending, which fell by 700 bln yuan in the first 10 months of the year, bad debt continued to climb.
By the end of September commercial banks had non-performing loans of 1.7 trln yuan, rising from 1.66 trln yuan in the previous quarter.
Ensuring that economic growth does not again accelerate too much is even more crucial, and earlier this month China said prudent fiscal policy, stable economic growth with an emphasis on efficiency and preventing overheating were the overarching goals for 2005.
""Prudent fiscal and monetary policy means (the government) is not going to stimulate economic growth, and the economy is not going to expand,"" said Development Research Center of the State Council economist Wang Zhao.
China began 2004 amid serious worries that the economy was dangerously overheated, with easy credit fueling production of factory-gate goods and soaring investment in government infrastructure products.
Inflation rose at an alarming rate, hitting a peak of 5.3 pct in July and August, as inventories of cars, steel and cement rose sharply.
Fixed asset investment, an indication of how much the government is spending on major infrastructure projects, hit 10-year highs in the January to March period, growing by 43 pct.
In the first 10 months of the year, investment rose 29.5 pct to 4.35 trln yuan and although October investment had fallen to 26.4 pct growth from a year earlier, China moved to raise its benchmark one-year lending rate 27 basis points to 5.58 pct.
But amid what some say is China's relative success in managing the economy, worries abound that investment growth remains too high and Beijing is still struggling to rein it in with provincial officials wanting fire up growth on their watch.
""The government appeared to be unable to slow the pace of fixed asset investment significantly,"" said Huang, adding: ""We recently began to see evidence of policy easing in some areas.""
分析师: 中国经济明年料降温 / 紧缩政策继续
分析师称, 中国今年采取的一系列宏观调控措施取得了一定的成效, 避免了经济的新一轮过热, 预期明年GDP增速将略回落。但为缓解人民币升值压力和来自主要贸易伙伴的压力, 中国仍需保持这些调控措施, 以确保经济稳定有序增长。
汇丰银行中国区高级经济师屈宏斌认为, 总的来说, 在投资过热和石油、能源、煤炭短缺等问题尚未完全解决前, 目前的紧缩政策将基本不变, 但估计会有一些微调。
中国政府通过对钢铁、房地产等过热行业的信贷紧缩以及9年来首次加息等措施, 力图避免中国经济如90年代中期那样走向接近失控。
受出口持续增长的推动, 中国今年GDP增速有望达到9%。分析师预期明年GDP增速将略有回落。
中国的对美贸易顺差在今年有望超过去年的1,240亿美元水平, 虽然中国政府已重申未来将逐渐实行人民币弹性汇率机制, 但人民币的升值压力并未得到缓解。
花旗环球金融大中华区首席经济师黄益平认为, 中国可能在半年内允许人民币汇率在3%的范围内上下浮动, 但也可能需要等待更长时间。
在2005年中国政府必须履行加入WTO时所做出的开放金融市场承诺, 因此对国内问题丛生的银行、股市以及国有企业进行改革仍然是极为重要的任务。
为确保不再经济出现过快增长, 中国政府的2005年经济发展目标特别强调需要采取稳定财政政策, 而防止经济过热是稳定发展的重点。
国务院发展研究中心经济学家王召称, 稳定财政和货币政策意味着政府将不会出台措施刺激经济增长。
2004年7、8月份, 中国消费物价指数CPI按年增幅均达到5.3%, 钢铁、汽车和水泥行业的库存进一步增加。
今年前8个月中国固定资产投资按年增加43%, 达到10年最高点。前10个月投资按年增加29.5%至4.35万亿元,
尽管一些人认为中国政府对宏观经济的调控措施已经取得初步成功, 但地方政府的过度投资仍令人担忧。
黄益平称, 中国政府似乎无法有效地抑制固定资产投资, 近来已经出现一些信贷放宽迹像。
