Japanese Have a Yen for China's Stocks
On a recent Wednesday afternoon in the Japanese port city of Yokohama, Yuko Shirohata joined 20 other investors at a seminar on her country's hottest new investment product: Chinese stocks.
"I think this is the last chance to get into China before the yuan's value gets changed," the 40-year-old Japanese homemaker said. "Too bad I didn't do it two years ago."
A small army of Ms. Shirohatas is on the march. They have been buying shares in Hong Kong, where many major China plays are listed. During the first nine months of this year, Japanese investors bought 669 billion yen ($6.5 billion) of Hong Kong-traded stocks, up from 388 billion yen for all of last year.
In the year ended Sept. 30, 2003, Japanese investors represented 4% of the trading volume on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, according to the latest data from the exchange. But that share is probably greater by now, considering big increases in stock purchase volume.
More significantly, the growth was fueled almost entirely by money from individual investors chasing hot IPOs and stock in big Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong, like PetroChina Co. and Denway Motors Ltd., the Chinese joint venture partner of Honda Motor Co. At the seminar, Ms. Shirohata was thinking about plunking down a million yen to buy shares in a cellphone operator like China Unicom Ltd. or a highway company like Jiangsu Expressway Co.
What's going on?
When small U.S. investors want to put money in Chinese stocks, they typically turn to mutual funds to reduce the risk of investing in an unfamiliar land. Japan's individual investors, on the other hand, are going after Chinese shares with a sharp appetite for returns -- and risk. Some of these investors are retirees and housewives, as at the Wednesday-afternoon seminar, but the investment surge appears to be led by younger folks.
It all comes as Japanese investors are emboldened by signs of economic recovery at home after a long malaise and some recovery on its own stock market. But interest on deposits has fallen, with the average savings-account yielding 0.001% a year, according to the latest data from Japan's central bank, so stocks look better.
"The risk tolerance of individual investors is clearly rising," says Hitoshi Ishiyama, senior manager for investment trust marketing at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co.
China appeals to the individual Japanese investor, analysts say, because of its own rapid economic growth -- running at more than 9% a year -- and close trade ties with Japan. Many Japanese also visit China on business or on vacation these days, and witness its dynamic economic growth first-hand.
"They know Shanghai is a lot like Tokyo and feel comfortable investing there," says Toru Suzukage, manager of the planning department at Toyo Securities Co., a Tokyo brokerage firm active in Chinese stocks.
The relatively low prices of Chinese stocks are attractive as well. A few thousand dollars can buy the investor a 1,000-share lot of a premier Chinese company, a fraction of what is needed to invest in a Japanese blue-chip company.
And that explains the appetite for initial public offerings of stock in Chinese companies, often industry leaders. Chinese issues "have been well received because the overall growth story has been easy to understand," says Stephen Metcalfe , co-head of equity capital markets for Nomura International in Hong Kong.
A structure known as a public offer without listing provides a regulated means for individual Japanese investors to buy shares listed in foreign markets but not in Japan. The program, which began in 1989, offers the country's individual investors a way to diversify and gives companies access to Japan's deep pool of savings. Total financial assets held by individuals in Japan have been hovering in recent years at about $13 trillion.
The $2.7 billion IPO of the Bank of China's Hong Kong operations, in 2002, was the first time a China-related company sold shares to individual investors in Japan. Japanese investors accounted for 12% of that sale, one of two that year. This year, six companies sold shares to the Japanese retail sector, according to market data provider Dealogic.
Orders from individual Japanese investors forChina Power International Development Inc. exceeded the size of the entire offering, which reached $369 million after the overallotment option was exercised. The latest offering, by China Netcom Group Corp. (Hong Kong) Ltd., sold about 6% of its $1.14 billion IPO to individual Japanese investors. For many issues, Japanese investors end up with about 6% of the shares.
Whether it's IPOs or trading in the secondary market, the investment habits of Ms. Shirohata and tens of thousands like her are worth watching. Most Japanese are a conservative bunch who keep their nest eggs locked up in savings accounts, but when it comes to stock investing, a gambling mentality can prevail, with investors moving rapidly from stock to stock and fund to fund in search of quick gains.
This behavior was on full display during a Southeast Asian stock fund boom in the 1990s -- the only other foreign-investment boom among individual investors that experts in Japan can recall -- when investors dumped truckloads of shares between 1994 and 1998.
As for Ms. Shirohata, in addition to her interest in Chinese stocks, she has invested in U.S. technology and real estate a few times but sold the shares within a month each time. "I don't hold on to foreign stocks for too long," she says.
日本投资者心仪中国股票
不久前一个周三的下午，在日本港口城市横滨，Yuko Shirohata和其他20位投资者一道参加了一个研讨会，会议的主题是日本目前最热门的投资产品：中国股票。
这位40岁的日本家庭主妇说：“我认为这是在人民币汇率作出调整前进入中国市场的最后机会，我两年前没这样做真是太糟糕了。”
但有少部分像Shirohatas女士这样的投资者已经在采取行动了。她们一直在购买香港的股票，中国许多大公司都在香港上市。今年前9个月，日本投资者购买了价值6,690亿日圆（65亿美元）的香港上市股票，而他们去年全年购买的这类股票不过价值3,880亿日圆。
香港证交所的最新数据显示，在截至2003年9月30日的一年中，该交易所4%的成交量是由日本投资者完成的，但鉴于日本投资者港股购买量的大幅增长，这一比例现在可能更高了。
更为重要的是，这一增长几乎全部是由来自散户投资者的资金推动的。这些投资者追捧那些进行首次公开募股(IPO)的热门股票，以及中国内地大型企业在香港上市交易的股票，如中国石油天然气(PetroChina Co.)和骏威汽车(Denway Motors Ltd.)等，骏威汽车有限公司与本田汽车公司(Honda Motor Co.)在中国大陆建有合资企业。在那个研讨会上，Shirohata女士考虑拿出100万日圆购买中国联通(China Unicom Ltd.)等移动电话运营商或宁沪高速(Jiangsu Expressway Co.)这类高速公路运营商的股票。
当美国的小股东想投资中国股票时，他们通常会选择购买共同基金，以降低自己投资这片陌生土地所承受的风险。而投资中国股票的日本散户投资者则对投资回报抱有很高的期望，因此也愿意承受投资风险。这些投资者中有一部分是退休人士和家庭主妇，就像参加周三研讨会的那些人，但日本人对投资中国兴趣大增却似乎是由一批更年轻的人带动的。
无独有偶，日本国内出现的一些积极迹象也增大了日本投资者的胆量，日本经济在经历长期萧条后终于显露出了复苏迹象，日本股市也有所回升。日本的存款利率一直在下调，日本央行的最新数据显示，该国1年期存款的平均利息只有0.001%，相比之下投资股市的回报总要高些。
三井住友资产管理公司(Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co.)负责投资信托营销的高级经理Hitoshi Ishiyama说，日本散户投资者的风险承受能力显然正在增强。
分析师们说，中国之所以能吸引日本的个人投资者，既是因为中国经济增长迅速──年平均增长率超过9%，也是因为中日两国的贸易关系密切。许多日本人最近都前往中国进行商务旅行或度假，因此有机会亲眼目睹中国经济增长的最新情况。
东洋证券(Toyo Securities Co.)的规划部经理Toru Suzukage说，日本人知道上海很像东京，因此愿意在那里投资。这家总部位于东京的证券公司正在积极开展中国股票业务。
而中国股票相对低的价格也对日本投资者具有吸引力。只花几千美元就能买进1,000股中国某家知名公司的股票，而要购买日本蓝筹股公司同等数量的股票，所花费的资金要高许多。
这可以解释日本投资者为什么对中国公司的IPO股票感兴趣。目前在香港市场进行IPO的中国公司通常都是国内某一行业的龙头企业。野村国际(Nomura International)驻香港的股票资本部门联席负责人史蒂芬?米特卡尔夫(Stephen Metcalfe)说，由于中国经济的总体增长情况易于把握，因此中国股票一直受到人们的欢迎。
根据日本于1989年开始实施的一项政策，该国的个人投资者可以在有政府监管的情况下购买在其他国家上市的股票。这一政策为日本的个人投资者提供了一条实施投资多样化的途径，也使得企业得以开发日本巨大的储蓄潜力。近年来，日本个人手中持有金融资产的规模一直维持在13 万亿美元左右。
中国银行(Bank of China)香港子公司2002年进行了规模达27亿美元的IPO，也是与中国有关的公司首次向日本的个人投资者出售股票。这次IPO中有12%的股票为日本投资者所认购。2002年日本投资者认购的中国公司股票共有两只。市场数据提供商Dealogic的数据显示，今年共有6家中国公司向日本散户投资者发售了股票。
日本个人投资者对中国电力国际发展有限公司(China Power International Development Ltd., 简称：中国电力)股票的需求量超过了该公司IPO股票的总量，在行使超额配售权后，中国电力此次IPO共募集资金3.69亿美元。中国网通集团（香港）有限公司 (China Netcom Group Corp. (Hong Kong) Ltd.)在最近完成的IPO中共筹集资金11.4亿美元，其中约6%的资金来自日本的个人投资者。而中国许多公司的IPO中日本投资者所购股票的比例都在6% 左右。
Shirohata女士和成千上万她这类日本投资者的投资习惯值得关注。多数日本人的理财心态都很保守，只会将自己的钱存进银行，但他们一旦决定投资股市，往往会抱有很强的赌博心态，他们会频繁更换手中所持的股票和基金，以期能够迅速获得投资回报。
这种行为在上世纪90年代东南亚的股票基金泡沫中展露无遗，那是又一个个人投资者疯狂投资外国股票的事例。
至于Shirohata女士，除对中国股票感兴趣外，她也曾投资过美国的科技和房地产类股票，但每次都是买进几个月后就又卖出了。她说，自己不会将外国股票持有太长时间。
