Global climate change report warns of ice-free Arctic summers by 2070
The Arctic ice-cap is melting at an unprecedented rate, with potentially dire consequences, according to one of the most authoritative studies on global climate change.
Arctic ice is half as thick as 30 years ago, the report found. In the same period the distribution of ice has shrunk by 10 per cent, according to the report, produced by 250 scientists over the past four years and commissioned by the Arctic Council.
A warmer Arctic could cause sea levels to rise nearly a metre by the end of the century, flooding many coastal regions and perhaps halting the Gulf Stream, which brings warmer water and weather to northern Europe.
Pal Prestrud, vice-chairman of the steering committee for the report, said: “Climate change is not just about the future; it is happening now. The Arctic is warming at twice the global rate.”
If present rates of change continue, there may be no ice in the Arctic in the northern hemisphere summer by 2070, according to the study, to be discussed on Tuesday at an international conference in Iceland. The report is the most comprehensive undertaken on the Arctic region, and is the product of the eight countries with Arctic territory: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the US.
It focuses on scientific evidence for Arctic warming, with projections of warming and its consequences. Finding ways to prevent such a future was a “political question” outside the scope of the report, said Mr Prestrud.
Warming could be slowed by cutting emissions of greenhouse gases, he said, but that would would need to be done urgently. As Arctic ice melts, global warming is likely to accelerate. As the ice reflects much of the sun's heat back into space, a shrinking ice cap will mean more heat is absorbed by the earth. A warming Arctic could facilitate shipping, as the journey between the UK and Japan could be shortened by 10 to 12 days by a route through passages that are ice-bound today, said Mr Prestrud. The Arctic region is believed to have 25 per cent of remaining oil and gas reserves, and melting ice may improve accessibility. Nicola Saltman, climate change programme leader at WWF, the environmental organisation, said: “This research provides incontrovertible proof that climate change is happening in the Arctic. It highlights the urgent need for Arctic governments to take action now by reducing their CO emissions.”
A strategy for tackling global warming under the UK's presidency of G8 and the European Union next year will be developed at a conference on Wednesday in Berlin.
“2070年北极夏季可能无冰”
据一项最权威的全球气候变化研究指出，北极冰盖正以前所未有的速度在融化，这可带来可怕的潜在后果。
该研究发现，北极冰的厚度是30年前的一半。根据研究报告，同期北极冰的分布已缩小了10%。这份报告是受北极理事会(Arctic Council)的委托，由250位科学家在过去4年中完成的。
北极变暖可导致海平面到本世纪末上升近一米，使沿海许多地区受淹，也许会使墨西哥湾流(Gulf Stream)停止，这一湾流给北欧带去更温暖的水流和气候。
报告筹划指导委员会副主席帕尔?普雷斯特鲁德(Pal Prestrud)表示：“气候改变不仅仅关乎未来；这种变化现在就发生着。北极变暖的速度是全球变暖速度的两倍。”
据该项研究称，如果目前的变化速度得以继续，那么到2070年，北极在北半球夏季时就可能没有冰了。该报告将于周二在冰岛的一个国际会议上进行讨论。这是有关北极地区最全面的一份报告，由拥有北极领土的8个国家承担编写。这8个国家是加拿大、丹麦、芬兰、冰岛、挪威、俄罗斯、瑞典和美国。
报告将重点放在北极趋暖的科学证据上，并对趋暖及其后果进行了预测。普雷斯特鲁德先生表示，找出防止这一未来前景的方法是个“政治问题”，因而超出了报告的范围。
他说，通过减少温室气体排放，可以减缓北极趋暖，但这需要迫切执行。随着北极冰层融化，全球变暖可能会加速。由于冰层将太阳的大部分热量反射回了太空，一旦冰盖萎缩，将意味着地球将吸收更多的热量。普雷斯特鲁德先生说，北极变暖可能促进海运，因为一条今天仍被冰封的航道将得以通航，使英国和日本之间的航程缩短10至12天。据信北极地区蕴藏着25%的未开采油气储备，而冰层融化后可使人们更容易进入该地区
