The doomsayers are not paying attention to the market fundamentals
At $50 a barrel and more, the world economy suffers, as an International Energy Agency report demonstrated six months ago. Key international players - ministers of the Group of Seven nations, directors of the International Monetary Fund and central bankers - are worried about the global impact and have called for lower prices, so far without success. The oil market interprets news from the Middle East, Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia and even the hurricane-hit Gulf of Mexico as though we live in an unpredictable and dangerous world and there is no buffer against unexpected events. According to this analysis, investment is insufficient and demand keeps surging; the oil industry and particularly -the refining industry are operating near to full capacity; and commercial stocks are too low as the winter heating season begins. The market incorporates all of these factors into technical analyses that project further increases in the oil price, to $60 per barrel, $70 per barrel or higher. Unfortunately, these doomsayers are not paying attention to market fundamentals, which are clear. First, global oil production is currently 2.1m barrels a day (b/d) more than average consumption during the third quarter of 2004. Opec production is sufficient to meet expected fourth quarter demand. World production capacity is expected to increase by 1.8m b/d by the end of 2004 and by an additional 1.7m b/d in 2005. At the same time as supply is growing, the first signs of weakening demand are becoming apparent, especially in China. In short, the market is comfortably supplied.
Another bearish signal for the oil price is that commercial stocks held by member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development are building and, at least in Europe and North America, are now near their five-year average, even though hurricanes have temporarily interrupted some supplies in the Gulf of Mexico.
A third element that should not be overlooked is the IEA countries' strategic stocks. At 4bn barrels, they represent more than one year of total output from Saudi Arabia and can be immediately released in case of a supply disruption. Indeed, strategic stocks were released several weeks ago in the US, quite rightly, to offset the disruption due to hurricanes. These stocks will be used again if an unforeseen event creates a shortage. On the other hand, using these stocks to lower the oil price, as some have suggested, would only provide an artificial and temporary respite that speculation would soon erase. Strategic stocks are not tools for market intervention. Does that mean one should remain a passive spectator of this frenzied increase in oil prices? On the contrary, inaction would render a disservice to market economies. Here are several proposals for action.
First, attention should be paid to market signals. As prices are high, the time is ripe to launch or develop strong energy efficiency policies in all consuming countries, including more stringent fuel conservation standards. The time is ripe also to invest boldly in new capacity, upstream and downstream, especially in refining. Recent decisions to invest are very welcome, in particular those taken by Saudi Arabia, but all governments should review their investment framework policies carefully, withdraw bans on private investment, dispel regulatory uncertainties and take steps to overcome opposition from local communities to new investments.
The increasing demand for light crude, when supplies increasingly consist of heavy crude, should be a good incentive to invest in conversion facilities, as some refiners have recently announced. Next, it is essential that markets remain comfortably supplied over the coming months. The second quarter of 2005 - the season when oil demand generally weakens - will be particularly important. Opec countries must use this period to allow stocks to build and must not reduce production again, as they unfortunately announced they would in 2004.
Last but not least, it is critical to improve the transparency of data. Too often, the market does not have confidence in the figures published by companies or by governments. The Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI) launched by the IEA in co-operation with Opec and four other international organisations is an important step toward increasing market confidence. The G7 finance ministers recently drew attention to the importance of this initiative and urged the IEA to continue its efforts to improve data transparency. The agency is ready to take on this challenge, but we need the support of governments around the world, since they provide the basic information on which the data is based. The assessment of geological resources and reserves is another area of uncertainty and dispute that creates additional tension in the oil market. The IEA will take on this issue as well, working with other specialised organisations.
It is time for governments, industry and individuals to act. Do not let technical analysis and pessimism alone rule the market. The writer is executive director of the International Energy Agency
石油悲观者忽略了市场要素
正如国际能源署（IEA）6个月前的一份报告指出，如果原油价格上升到每桶50美元或更高，那么全球经济就会遭殃。那些主要的国际级人物――比如G7集团的部长、国际货币基金组织的董事以及各国央行的行长们――对高油价可能给全球经济带来的冲击也忧心忡忡，他们一直呼吁油价应该降下来，但是迄今为止收效甚微。
国际原油市场在不断解读来自中东、尼日利亚、委内瑞拉、俄国，甚至遭受飓风袭击的墨西哥湾等地的新闻。这样看来，我们像是居住在变幻无常的危险世界里，对无法预测的事件束手无策。根据这种分析，目前的投资远远不够，然而需求却不断上升；石油行业（尤其是石油化工业）已差不多是满负荷运转；而随着冬天取暖季节的到来，石油商业储备量太低了。石油市场正是考虑了这些因素来做技术分析的，并且预测每桶油价将会突破60美元、70美元甚至更高。但是不幸的是，这些悲观主义者忽略了一些显而易见的基本市场因素。
首先，目前全球每天的石油产量是210万桶，多于2004年第三季度的每日平均消费量。欧佩克（Opec）的产量足以满足预期的第四季度需求。到2004年年底，预计全球的日产能将增加180万桶。到2005年，还将在原有基础上再增加170万桶。随着供应量增加，需求减缓的第一个迹象已经很明显了，尤其在中国。简而言之，市场的供应量非常充分。
油价即将走熊的另一个迹象是，由经济合作与发展组织（OECD）成员国所控制的商业石油储备还在上升，至少在欧洲和北美国家，这种储备量已接近他们5年来的平均水平，尽管飓风曾一度造成墨西哥湾的石油管道中断。
第三个不容忽视的因素是国际能源署成员国的战略储备。目前，这些储备量已达到40亿桶，比沙特阿拉伯的全年总产量还高，而且一旦石油供应出现异常，这部分储备就会释放。事实上，美国的战略储备在几周前已经释放了一些，以缓解因飓风带来的供应中断。如果不可预测的因素造成供应紧缺，这些储备将会再次被投放到市场上。但另一方面，正如部分人士认为的，利用这些储备来抑制油价，只能起到暂时及人为干预的作用，其成效很快就会被投机活动所抹杀，因此战略储备不能作为干预市场的工具。
但这是否意味着在油价疯狂攀升的过程中，我们只能被动地袖手旁观？答案是否定的，不采取行动对市场经济只会带来损害。以下是采取行动的几条建议：
首先，我们必须重视市场信号。由于油价高企，这正是所有石油消费国家建立或发展强有力的能源效率政策的好时机，包括更加严格的燃料保护标准。同时，大量投资新产能（包括上游和下游产业――尤其是石化行业）的机会已经成熟。最近一些国家做出的投资决策（特别是沙特阿拉伯）就很受欢迎，但是所有政府都应该认真重新审视他们的投资框架政策，取消对私人投资的限制，消除监管上的不确定性，并采取措施改变地方社区对新投资的敌视态度。
在当前石油供应趋于以重质原油为主的同时，对轻原油的需求正不断增长，这应该成为刺激投资石油转化设备的良好推动力，最近一些石化公司就做出了这方面的投资宣布。其次，对石油的需求将在2005年第二季度开始减缓，因此今后几个月的市场充足供应将非常重要。欧佩克组织的成员国必须利用这段时间来让各国增加储备，而不应再次削减产量。很不幸的是，他们曾表示在2004年会采取这种做法。
最后也很重要的一点是，提高信息的透明度至关重要。很多时候，市场对企业或者政府部门公布的数字并没有信心。由国际能源署通过与欧佩克及其它4个国际机构合作推出的“综合石油数据计划”（Joint Oil Data Initiative）就是改善市场信心的重要步骤。G7集团的财政部长们最近对这一举措表示极大的关注，并呼吁国际能源署为提高有关信息的透明度而继续努力。虽然国际能源署很愿意迎接这一挑战，但是我们也需要各国政府的支持，因为石油资料的原始数据都是各国政府提供的。此外，对于各种资源的地理分布和储备的评估，则是另一个模糊的领域，而且争议颇多，这也加剧了石油市场的紧张程度。国际能源署准备通过与其它专门机构合作来解决这一问题。
现在也是各国政府、石油工业和个人采取行动的时候了。请不要让技术分析和悲观主义主导市场。
作者是国际能源署执行总监
