Examine Your Finances --
Or Your Head
Do you have a confidence problem? Dwell on the past? Feel afraid of being hurt?
No, these aren't questions from Dr. Freud while you're on the psychiatrist's couch. Rather, they are what a financial adviser might ask you about your investing habits.
After all, investors are prone to certain emotional -- and often irrational -- biases that affect their ability to make sound decisions about money. There is even an increasingly popular academic field, called behavioral finance, that explores the motivations lurking deep in an investor's mind.
Many of the field's principles might be valuable for investors to consider, especially in these days of political and economic uncertainty when it is tempting to overreact to corporate profit announcements, rising interest rates, election jitters and terrorism fears.
"The major mistake that people make is that they are not very good at dealing with a lot of uncertainty," says Jim Scott, a former professor at Columbia Business School and president of Quantitative Management Associates, a unit of Prudential Investment Management.
"So, rather than a rational assessment of data and probabilities," Mr. Scott says, "they like stories and they make decisions based more on mental images rather than a sober assessment of their portfolio and how [a particular] stock fits into it."
The field sprouted from the research of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, psychologists whose 1970s work on making decisions laid much of the groundwork for modern-day behavioral finance. Indeed, Mr. Kahneman was the first psychologist to receive the Nobel Prize for economics. The Princeton psychology professor received the award in 2002 along with Vernon Smith, a professor of economics and law at George Mason University.
Today, many financial experts draw upon the ideas pioneered by Mr. Kahneman and other academics, which demonstrate how individuals often rely on these mental shortcuts that undercut principles of probability. It all goes a long way toward explaining why many people just don't have a knack for investing.
"People are chasing returns and they are buying whatever the new hot product is," says Norm Mindel, a financial planner with Genworth Financial in Schaumburg, Ill. "People tend to first pick the investment, rather than decide how the portfolio should be allocated," he says.
Overconfidence is a common flaw. Men tend to be more overconfident than women, and men tend to trade more actively than women, which usually ends up hurting their overall returns.
"People tend to think they know more than they actually do," says Terrance Odean, a finance professor at the University of California at Berkeley. Adds John Nersesian, a wealth-management strategist at Nuveen Investments: "That's not to suggest they shouldn't be well-informed or confident in a strategy they develop," he says, "but they shouldn't be lured into a false sense of security."
NOT THINKING CLEARLY
Researcher Dalbar Inc. examined the effects of investors' decisions to buy and sell their mutual funds, using three profiles. Here's how each category's return compares with annual return of stocks in Standard & Poor's 500 index and the annual inflation rate:
CATEGORY 1984-2003
ANNUALIZED RETURN
S&P 500 Index 12.98%
Average Equity Fund Investor 3.51
Systematic Equity Fund Investor 6.80
Market Timer Equity Fund Investor -3.29
Long Term Government Bond Index 11.16
Average Fixed Income Fund Investor 3.75
Systematic Fixed Income Fund Investor 5.60
Market Timer Fixed Income Fund Investor -1.85
Inflation 3.06
Average Fund Investor: The aggregate action of all investors. The return is calculated by treating aggregate mutual-fund industry flows as representative of the average investor.
Systematic Investor: Invests a fixed dollar amount each month for the entire study period and makes no withdrawals.
Market Timer Investor: Tries to predict and react to changes in the market.
Investors also tend to feel more secure in their choices when following the herd, or doing what everyone else is doing. "This is the idea that investors feel more comfortable in making financial decisions that are validated by the actions of others," Mr. Nersesian says. "Investors become very scared if they see others heading for the exits."
Here are some of the other behavioral patterns of investors:
Recency Bias: People tend to focus too much on what has happened recently. "That is true in terms of unfavorable, unsettling negative events, but it's also true for positive events," says Hersh Shefrin, a finance professor at Santa Clara University.
"That's why investors overreacted to the bull market," he says. "When we get into these bull and bear markets, we think they have a tendency to self-perpetuate, and they don't."
That is also why investors will continue to buy winning asset classes -- remember the dot-com technology boom? -- but not sell off part of their winnings.
"People tend to project recent patterns into the future," Mr. Odean adds. "There is this tendency to buy the stocks that did well last year and the mutual funds that did well last year."
Anchoring: Some investors become "anchored" to certain reference points that influence their decisions, says Nuveen's Mr. Nersesian.
Say an investor buys a stock at $50 and it falls to $40 because the fundamentals have changed or bad news has come to light. The best thing to do might be to sell the stock for $40. But he says many people are prone to wait for the price to recover to the amount they have become anchored to: $50.
Loss Aversion: Investors are reluctant to realize losses, and conversely, investors are inclined to sell (sometimes too early) because they want the positive reinforcement that comes from securing a gain.
"People have a tendency to hold on to their losers and sell their winners," adds Mr. Odean of UC Berkeley.
Mental Accounting: This is the idea that we treat money differently based on where it came from or where we hold it.
"It's incredible how people will treat tax-return money as lottery winnings or found money," Mr. Nersesian says. "They treat it as found money, though its true nature is really from wages or salary."
So what's an investor to do after recognizing one of these patterns of behavior? Start by creating a formal financial plan and sticking to it. At the same time, try not to get distracted by the constant stream of brokerage statements hitting your mailbox.
You can also keep a long-term perspective, remain adequately diversified -- Genworth's Mr. Mindel believes investors should be in 10 or 11 different asset classes -- and rebalance your portfolio.
"Trim back on areas that have become inflated, and buy things that are on sale or don't necessarily appear to be in vogue at the time," Mr. Nersesian says. "Rebalancing works, and it really works over a longer-term market cycle."
It might also be worth it to consult with a trustworthy financial adviser who is more detached from the situation than you are. Taking the emotion out of the decision increases the chances that it will result in a rational move.
And if you feel compelled to get into a high-stakes investment?
"It's OK to take a small portion of your portfolio and play with it if it gives you a lot of pleasure," Mr. Shefrin says. "Just be sure it's small enough that it doesn't damage your long-term financial health. Think of it as play money you can afford to lose."
成功投资需要良好心态
你是否存在信心不足的问题？是不是总想著以前如何如何？总害怕受到伤害？
投资者总是容易冲动 -- 而且经常是不理智的 -- 这就妨碍他们做出明智的理财决定。一项被称做行为金融的学科目前正在学术领域迅速发展起来，它专门研究投资者深层次的心态。
这个领域的很多原则都值得投资者去仔细领会，尤其是在如今这种政治和经济不确定性都很大的情况下，投资者很容易对公司业绩、加息、大选风波和恐怖主义担忧等做出过度的反应。
“人们犯的主要错误就是他们不善于应对很多不确定因素”，曾经是哥伦比亚大学商学院(Columbia Business School)教授、Quantitative Management Associates总裁吉姆?斯考特(Jim Scott)说。Quantitative Management Associates是保德信投资管理公司(Prudential Investment Management)旗下子公司。
“他们不是对数据和可能性进行理智分析”，斯考特说，“而是喜欢消息和传闻，他们主要是根据脑子里想像的东西来做决定，而不是去对自己的投资组合以及一只股票是否适合投资组合进行理性的分析”。
心理学家丹尼尔?科恩曼(Daniel Kahneman)和阿莫司?特沃斯基(Amos Tversky)从20世纪70年代开始对人们如何做出决定进行研究，他们的工作成果为现代行为金融学奠定了重要基础。科恩曼是第一位获得诺贝尔经济学奖(Nobel Prize for economics)的心理学家。这位普林斯顿大学的心理学教授在2002年与乔治梅森大学(George Mason University)的经济学和法学教授弗农?史密斯(Vernon Smith)共同获得这项殊荣。
今天，很多金融专家都被科恩曼及其他教授开创的理论所吸引，这些理论研究表明了个人在作出决定时爱走捷径，光靠脑子去想而不是运用科学理论。他们还用大量观点解释为什么许多人都缺乏投资诀窍。
“人们总是在追逐投资回报，只要有新的热门产品出现，他们就想买”，伊利诺伊州Genworth Financial的金融规划师诺姆?明德尔(Norm Mindel)说。“人们总在挑选投资什么，却不去想投资组合该如何分配”，他说。
过度自信是人们普遍存在的缺陷。男人要比女人更加过度自信，男人的交易活动也要比女人更加频繁，这些往往会减少投资组合的回报。
“人们总是觉得自己知道自己在做什么，”，加州大学(University of California)伯克利分校金融教授特伦斯?奥迪恩(Terrance Odean)说。Nuveen Investments的资产管理策略师约翰?纳瑟希安(John Nersesian)也表示，“并不是说投资者不应该尽量获取更多信息或是对他们的投资策略抱有信心”，他说，“但不能坠入一种虚假的安全感里”。
投资者还会在追随大众做出投资决策后感到更加安全，或者是看别人怎么做自己也跟著做。“这种观点认为投资者会在做出与他人相同的投资决策后感到安心”，纳瑟希安说，“如果看到其他人退出，投资者就会感到恐慌”。
此外，投资者还有其他一些行为模式：
近期偏好：人们总是对最近发生的事情给以太多的关注。“最近发生的不利和令人不安的事件，或是有利的正面事件，人们都会过度关注”，圣塔克拉拉大学(Santa Clara
University)金融教授赫甚?谢芙林(Hersh shefrin)说。
“这就是为什么投资者会对牛市做出过度反映的原因”，他说。“当我们身处牛市或是熊市之中，我们会觉得这种趋势会持续下去，但其实这是不可能的”。
这同样也解释了为什么投资者总是去买那些跑赢市场的投资 -- 还记得互联网繁荣的时候么？ -- 而对赚了钱的股票不愿意抛售。
“人们总是会把最近发生的事情想像到未来也会发生”，奥迪恩先生补充说。“投资者总是想买去年表现很好的股票和共同基金”。
套牢死等: 有些投资者在某个点位被套，其投资决策也就会受到影响，纳瑟希安说。
比方说，一个投资者在50美元的价位买进股票，但由于该股的基本面发生变化或是有一些利空消息导致其价格下跌至40美元。此时最好的选择应当是在40美元将股票卖掉，但很多人都想等股价涨回到50美元再卖。
害怕亏钱：投资者都不愿意亏钱，他们往往会想著落袋为安而卖出股票（这样有时就卖得太早了）。
“人们总有一种留著亏钱股票但卖出赚钱股票的倾向”，奥迪恩说。
大脑会计：这是说人们会对不同来源或不同方式存在的钱财区别对待。
“人们会把退税得来的钱当作中奖或是意外所得，这简直难以置信”，纳瑟希安说。“他们会把它当作拣来的钱，其实这些钱也来自他们的工资收入”。
投资者在意识到这些行为模式后应当怎么做呢？一开始就要准备一份正式的理财计划，然后严格地加以执行。与此同时，不要被那些经纪公司频繁发到你邮箱里的东西所干扰。
你也可以进行长线投资，投资组合应该保持充分多样化--明德尔认为人们应当持有10项或11项资产 -- 而且要经常调整投资组合的平衡。
“卖出那些超出计划持有量的股票，买入一些已经超卖或者目前还不是市场热点的股票”，纳瑟希安说。“重新调整投资组合的平衡很有必要，如果从更长的市场周期看这样做好处更大”。
投资者还可以向值得信任的理财顾问寻求意见，他们更能从局外人的角度帮助投资者分析问题。不要在决策中掺杂感性因素，这样才能作出理智决定。
如果你觉得特别想大量投资一把，那怎么办呢？
“如果只是把投资组合的一小部分用于这样的投资，而且这项投资让你很感兴趣那是没问题”，谢芙林说。“只要保证这笔投资只是你投资组合的一小部分，它不会给你的长期财政状况构成负面影响即可。就把它当成可以玩得起的游戏练练手罢了”。
