El Nino Clouds Asian Forecasts
HONG KONG -- As investors in Asia focus on high oil prices, tightening credit and the possibility of a sharp economic slowdown in China, another cloud of worry may be gathering on the horizon -- the return of El Nino.
The U.S. National Weather Bureau and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are warning of a possible El Nino, in which sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Basin remain warmer than usual and create world-wide climate changes. In Southeast Asia, a strong El Nino would likely trigger a drought that could wreak havoc with the region's key agricultural industries.
Two years ago, countries close to the equator dodged a bullet, as an El Nino bypassed Southeast Asia but inflicted severe damage on Australia.
This year, El Nino's arrival is no sure thing. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there is about a 50% chance of El Nino conditions developing. Australia's Southern Oscillation Index, which tracks air-pressure fluctuations that forecast sea temperatures, has shown negative values in recent months, suggesting an El Nino episode.
Whether Asia gets a serious El Nino or none this year, market watchers are starting to consider how the sometimes-devastating weather phenomenon might affect prices of grain, cattle, palm oil, sugar and other commodities as well as shares of agricultural companies, food manufacturers and farm-equipment makers.
"It's something we're keeping an eye on," says Spencer White, chief equity strategist in Asia-Pacific for Merrill Lynch. An El Nino developing later this year could wield a heavy impact on next year's crops. Food manufacturers and shippers tend to carry big loads of operating debt, Mr. White says, explaining that, "If volume drops, margins could be hurt quite significantly."
In Australia, shares of companies such as wheat exporter AWB, farm-chemicals distributor Nufarm and cattle rancher Australian Agricultural could take a hit. In Malaysia, palm-oil companies appear vulnerable despite general expectations that currently strong crude-palm-oil prices will remain stable.
Mr. White says Malaysia's United Plantations and Golden Hope Plantations as well as insurers and agricultural lenders -- such as Australia's Bendigo Bank -- might find themselves grappling with El Nino. The weather risk isn't yet reflected in stock prices, Mr. White says, but companies linked to agriculture across the region face possibly tighter margins if drought ensues.
Other examples of food companies that could experience El Nino-related effects, analysts and economists say, include Malaysia's MK Land Holdings, Universal Robina of the Philippines and Indonesian plantation company Astra Agro Lestari. The Indonesian company, like similar ones in the region, was affected by the 1997-98 El Nino, as production fell sharply.
If Asia does get another El Nino, its effects wouldn't manifest themselves right away in most agricultural enterprises. Harvest season for some crops begins this month and lasts till around the end of the year, so production levels -- and profit -- should remain steady through 2004. It is the 2005 harvest that likely would be affected if there's a serious drought.
El Nino normally occurs once every five to six years, though it can arrive more often.
The El Nino that occurred in late 2002 badly hurt Australian farmers. David Thurtell, a commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, says it slashed the country's wheat crop the next year to 10 million tons from the usual 21 million tons to 22 million tons. Cotton and rice output shrank 40% from normal levels, he adds. The supply of cattle feed fell, causing livestock firms to cut back sheep and cattle raising for exports.
Southeast Asia has particularly good reason to fear a strong El Nino. Agriculture represents 20% to 25% of gross domestic product in Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and India, says Ray Jovanovich, chief investment officer in Asia at Credit Agricole Asset Management. Between 40% and 45% of the people in those countries depend in some way on agriculture.
The 1997-98 El Nino coincided with the Asian financial crisis, so Southeast Asia suffered a double-whammy. The drought magnified the economic crisis, as farmers couldn't afford fertilizer and agricultural equipment and couldn't get bank loans. Agricultural bankruptcies prolonged the agony brought by the crisis.
厄尔尼诺卷土重来威胁亚洲农业
就在亚洲投资者紧盯高昂的油价、紧缩的信贷政策以及中国经济大幅放缓的可能性之际，另一片阴云渐渐笼罩市场──厄尔尼诺可能卷土重来。
美国国家气象局(U.S. National Weather Bureau)和澳大利亚气象局(Australian Bureau of Meteorology)正在对厄尔尼诺抬头的可能性发出警告，厄尔尼诺出现时，太平洋盆地的海水表面温度将持续高于正常水平，并导致全球气候变化。在亚洲东南部，强烈的厄尔尼诺现象可能引发气候乾旱，给该地区举足轻重的农业生产造成严重危害。
两年前厄尔尼诺在东南亚经过时，赤道附近的国家躲过了一场浩劫，但澳大利亚遭受了严重损害。
今年，厄尔尼诺的到来并不确定。美国国家海洋及大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)称，目前来看厄尔尼诺到来的可能性为50%左右。但澳大利亚气象局通过跟踪气压来预测海水温度的指数近几个月一直保持负值，这是厄尔尼诺生成的典型征兆。
无论亚洲今年会不会经受严重的厄尔尼诺，市场观察人士都已开始思考，这种有时极具破坏性的天气现象将对谷物、家畜、棕榈油、糖和其他农产品的价格以及农业公司、食品制造商和农业设备制造商的股价造成何种影响。
美林公司(Merrill Lynch)驻亚太的首席股票策略师斯宾塞?怀特(Spencer White)说，“这是我们正在密切关注的事情。”倘若厄尔尼诺现象在今年晚些时候蔓延开来，很可能对明年的农作物收成造成严重影响。食品制造商和发货商将因此背上沉重的经营债务，怀特解释说，如果农作物产量下降，利润率将遭受严重打击。
在澳大利亚，小麦出口商AWB、农药分销商Nufarm和家畜饲养公司Australian Agricultural的股价可能遭受打击。在马来西亚，棕榈油公司的股价也可能出现波动，尽管市场普遍认为当前强劲的棕榈油价格有望保持稳定。
怀特指出，马来西亚的United Plantations和Golden Hope Plantations，以及保险商和农业贷款人（例如澳大利亚的Bendigo Bank）可能要面临一场与厄尔尼诺的殊死搏斗。气候风险尚未反映在股价当中，但如果乾旱天气接踵而至，与东南亚农业有关的公司可能会面临利润率萎缩的局面。
United Plantations和Golden Hope的股价均与去年同期水平基本持平。United Plantations周一收于4.64林吉特（1.22美元），较其52周高点低9%；Golden Hope收于3.50林吉特，较其52周高点下跌23%。（吉隆坡市场昨日因逢马来西亚国庆节而休市。）
分析师和经济学家们称，其他可能受厄尔尼诺现象影响的公司还包括马来西亚的MK Land Holdings、菲律宾的Universal Robina以及印尼经营种植园的Astra Agro Lestari。这家印尼公司与该地区很多类似公司一样，在1997-98年的厄尔尼诺现象中因产量大幅下降而遭受沉重打击。
如果厄尔尼诺重袭亚洲，其对大多数农业公司的影响可能不会立即显现。从本月开始直至今年年末左右，这是很多农作物的收获季节，因此2004年的产量及利润水平应能保持稳定。如果出现严重乾旱，2005年的收成可能会受到影响。
厄尔尼诺现象通常每五六年发生一次，但有时也会频繁到来，如果今年最终被证明是个厄尔尼诺年，这就是个典型例子。
2002年，厄尔尼诺在消失5年后卷土重来，对澳大利亚农业造成灾难性的打击。澳洲联邦银行(Commonwealth Bank of Australia, CBA.AU)驻悉尼的商品分析师大卫?索特尔(David Thurtell)说，这次厄尔尼诺使澳大利亚第二年的小麦产量由正常情况下的2,100万至2,200万吨降至1,000万吨，棉花和大米产量较正常水平萎缩40%。他对家畜饲养公司也造成沉重打击，因为饲料供给大幅减少，导致这些家畜公司不得不削减出口产量。
东南亚国家尤其有理由对1997年这类强烈的厄尔尼诺现象感到担忧。Credit Agricole Asset Management驻亚洲的首席投资长雷?约万诺维奇(Ray Jovanovich)说，农业在泰国、印尼、菲律宾和印度占国内生产总值(GDP)的20%-25%。这些国家40%-45%的人口从某种程度上依赖农业生存。
