Consumer-Goods Sales in India
Trail China on Splintered Market
SINGAPORE -- Sales of household consumer goods -- including items like juice, instant coffee, detergent and shampoo -- are growing much faster in urban China than in urban India, and India's old-fashioned, fragmented retail business is partly to blame, according to ACNielsen.
The market-research firm, citing data released yesterday, said sales of high-volume packaged goods in urban China grew 9% from a year earlier to $13.6 billion in the year ended April 30, while sales of similar goods in urban India grew just 2.2% to $7.36 billion. ACNielsen tracks retail sales in most key towns and cities in both countries on a continuing basis.
India's retail sector, which is still dominated by mom-and-pop stores and has few modern shopping malls, has stifled the industry from keeping pace with its counterpart in booming China, according to Russell Farmery, ACNielsen's managing director for India. Modern retail outlets account for 46% of fast-moving consumer goods sold in Chinese cities, in terms of value. In India, modern stores account for 7% of urban sales.
The disparity in growth rates for the consumer items surveyed is notable, in particular, because China and India both recorded among the world's highest rates of economic growth in the past year. China's inflation-adjusted gross domestic product expanded 9.1% in 2003, while India's economy grew 8.2% in the year ended March 31.
According to retail business analysts, consumers tend to buy more when they shop at "modern trade channels," such as hypermarkets, supermarkets and retail chains, which offer a wider selection, slicker marketing, a more pleasant shopping experience and -- most importantly -- cheaper prices.
But such outlets are few in India. Foreign investors are barred from India's retail sector, so companies such as Carrefour SA of France and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. of the U.S., which have invested heavily in China, aren't present. While there are Indian companies that try to do the same thing, they don't yet have the scale to squeeze better prices from manufacturers to pass on to consumers. "The penetration is not there in India -- you don't find hypermarkets down every street as you do in China," Mr. Farmery said in an interview.
There is another reason retail receipts in India haven't grown much. Feisty local competitors of foreign-run manufacturers such as Proctor & Gamble Co. of the U.S. and Hindustan Lever Ltd., the Indian unit of Anglo-Dutch company Unilever PLC, have also driven down prices of everyday products such as shampoo and toothpaste in the past few years.
Sales of most of the 10 biggest high-volume categories that ACNielsen tracks in India remained stable, volume-wise. But the value of six of the categories declined during the period surveyed. Toothpaste sales, for example, dropped 9.6%, and the value of laundry-detergent sales declined 6.3%. In the surveys, the biggest growth in Indian consumption came from refined edible oils, which grew 20%, and biscuits, which rose 8.9%.
In China, ACNielsen said, the value of the largest 10 packaged-goods categories sold there -- including shampoo, instant noodles, skin moisturizer and yogurt -- grew in all except one case. The fastest-expanding categories were juice, which increased 41% in value, and skin moisturizers, which grew 25%.
"The local manufacturers in China are giving the multinationals a run for their money, but not necessarily at the same price plateau," said Mr. Farmery. "There's a much bigger price gap between the locals and the [multinationals] in India."
印度消费品零售状况逊于中国
AC尼尔森(ACNielsen)调查显示，果汁、速溶咖啡、洗涤剂和洗发香波等家用消费品在中国城市地区的销售额增幅远高于印度城市地区，部分原因是印度的零售业模式陈旧且分散。
AC尼尔森援引周一发布的数据称，截至4月30日全年，大容量包装的商品在中国城市地区的销售额较上年同期增长9%，至136亿美元；而同类商品在印度城市的销售额仅增长2.2%至73.6亿美元。AC尼尔森多年来一直在跟踪调查两国主要城市的零售销售状况。
AC尼尔森负责印度业务的董事总经理法尔梅(Russell Farmery)说，印度的零售业仍然以小杂货店为主，几乎没有什么现代化商场，很难与中国兴旺发达的零售业相媲美。中国现代化商场的销售额在飞涨的消费品销售总额中占到46%；而在印度，这一比例只有区区7%。
鉴于中国和印度在过去一年的经济增幅均居全球前列，它们的零售额增幅居然有如此大的差距，这一点尤其令人瞩目。经通货膨胀因素调整后，中国2003年国内生产总值(GDP)增长率为9.1%，印度截至3月31日财政年度的GDP增幅为8.2%。
零售业分析师称，消费者在现代化购物场所，如超大型商场、超级市场和零售连锁店的消费意愿更强烈。这里商品种类更多，营销手段也更花哨，购物环境更加宜人，最重要的是，价格更便宜。
但印度几乎没有这样的购物场所。印度零售业并未向外国投资者开放，所以许多在中国大举投资的外国零售商，例如法国的家乐福(Carrefour SA)和美国的沃尔玛(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)等都未涉足印度市场。虽然也有印度公司试图开发当地零售市场，但他们还不具备足够的规模和力量，无法获得制造商的更低价格，使消费者获得实惠。法尔梅在接受采访时说，印度零售市场的渗透度还不够，不像中国这样超级市场遍地都是。
另外，外国生产商的印度子公司在当地市场非常活跃。例如，美国的宝洁(Proctor & Gamble Co.)在印度成立了子公司、英荷公司联合利华(Unilever PLC)也成立了Hindustan Lever Ltd.。近年来，当地企业与这些公司的竞争导致印度市场上香波和牙膏等日用品价格持续下滑。这也是印度零售额增幅不及中国的原因之一。
在AC尼尔森所选取的印度10个大包装消费品种类中，多数种类商品的销售量保持平稳，但其中6类商品的销售额有所下滑。牙膏的销售额下降了9.6%；洗衣粉销售额下降6.3%。精炼食用油销售额增幅居首，为20%；其次是饼干，销售额增长8.9%。
中国市场上，包括香波、方便面、润肤霜和酸奶等销售额居前的10类消费品中，除1种商品外，其余销售额均有不同程度增长。增长最快的是果汁，销售额激增41%，然后是润肤霜，涨幅25%。
法尔梅说，中国的消费品生产商与跨国公司展开了激烈竞争，但并不一定争夺同等价位的商品市场。而印度的本土产品和跨国公司产品的价差更大。
