Japan's economy seen as inspiring gold medallists
Economists claim to have found a link between Japan's performance at the Olympic Games and its economic highs and lows during the past 80 years.
Strategists in HSBC's Japan team charted the number of gold medals won by Japan against its economic and stockmarket growth since the 1920s.
They found Japan's medal performance in the 1960s and early 1970s was impressive. Performance slipped a bit after the mid-1970s but then peaked at the Los Angeles Olympics in 1984 and the start of Japan's bull market. By 1988 in Seoul, “the beginning of the rot set in”. The 1990s were disastrous.
Then this year, just as the economy is showing signs of reviving, Japan won 15 gold medals in Athens, an increase on only five in Sydney four years ago. Correlation between medal winning and economic fortunes was a “satisfactory” 63 per cent; a figure described yesterday by a quantitative analyst as “pretty good”.
The link between Japan's medal count and the stock market's performance during the following four years was less clear a 45 per cent correlation but if the relationship between the market and the stock index holds true, HSBC said, the Nikkei should rise 100 per cent to 150 per cent by the time of the Beijing Olympics in 2008.
“There is a serious point here, too,” the HSBC team added, “Japan's better showing in international sport reflects serious changes going on in Japanese society and corporate culture.”
Japan was more performance-focused and meritocratic the popular Sydney 2000 Japanese marathon winner was dropped due to flagging form and funds were allocated by the Japan Olympic Committee towards gold-medal strengths in swimming and judo a sport Japan invented rather than all sports.
The model might worry the US market: the chart of medals tallies against gross domestic product and population shows the US team under-achieving.
HSBC says countries on the chart edges those which do much better or worse than they should based on economic growth and population can be explained by the “sporty” factor. Russia, Romania and Australia are “the most sporty”. India is the world's least sporty country. With more than 1bn people and a GDP of $575bn, India won only a single silver medal.
日本经济影响本国奥运选手夺金
经济学家声称，他们已找到了在过去80年里日本在奥运会上的表现与该国经济起落之间的联系。
汇丰银行(HSBC)日本研究小组的策略师们，将日本所获金牌数目与该国自上世纪20年代以来经济与股市发展的对比绘制成表格。
他们发现，日本在上世纪60年代与70年代早期的夺牌表现不俗，在70年代中期略有下滑，但随后在1984年洛杉矶奥运会上达到顶峰，这一年也是日本股市大牛市开始的时候。到1988年汉城奥运会，“情况开始走下坡路”。20世纪90年代则是灾难性的。
而在今年，随着经济显露复苏的迹象，日本在雅典赢得了15块金牌，多于4年前在悉尼获得的区区5块。获得的奖牌数量与经济运势之间的相关性达到了“令人满意的”63%，一位定量分析师昨日形容这一数字“相当好”。
未来4年，日本的奖牌数量和股市表现相关度可能会低一些，估计在45%左右，但汇丰银行表示，如果市场和股票指数之间的关系保持不失真，那么到2008年北京奥运会时，日经指数应上涨100%至150%。
“还有一点需要认真指出，”汇丰的研究小组补充说，“日本在国际赛事中的进步表现，反映了日本社会和企业文化正在发生重大变革。”
日本更关注业绩表现。由于状态下降，获得2000年悉尼奥运会马拉松冠军的日本运动员此次被刷下。日本奥委会将资金分配给了金牌强项游泳和柔道，而不是所有项目。柔道这一体育项目是日本发明的。
这个模式或许会让美国市场担忧：奖牌数和国内生产总值及人口之间的关联图表明，美国代表队的表现未能达到应有水平。
汇丰银行表示，以经济增长和人口为基础，图表上一些国家的表现与它们应有水平相比有好有差，这可以用“运动”因素来解释。俄罗斯、罗马尼亚和澳大利亚“最具运动因素”。印度是世界上最不具有运动精神的国家。印度人口超过10亿，国内生产总值达5750亿美元，但它只得了一块银牌。
