Japan’s economy can only improve with age
The Japanese government’s most recent economic report was the most positive since the end of the bubble era in 1990, upgrading the official assessment of the economy in July from “steady” to “solid” recovery. Reflecting the improving financial condition of Japan’s households, consumption is now expected to rise by 2.6 per cent in real terms in fiscal 2004 compared with 1.1 per cent predicted in January. Despite growing official confidence, there are questions in some quarters about whether the increase in consumption, the largest contributor to Japan’s gross domestic product, is sustainable given the country’s declining and ageing population. It may come as a surprise, but consumption will in fact benefit from social and demographic changes in Japan over the next decade - and play an increasingly important role in the sustainability of the country’s economic recovery. Japan is experiencing a generational change from post-second world war thrift to a consumer culture as people spend more freely to enhance their quality of life. As a result, consumption has been rising over the long term and now represents about 57 per cent of GDP in Japan, compared with 70 per cent in the US - and this trend is likely to continue. Demographic changes will be less of a risk to growing consumption than many imagine. Although the population overall will start to decrease in 2007, the working population will remain stable for some time to come, with the number of over-25s only beginning to decline in 2014. The growing number of retirees will help boost the economy as they start to spend capital saved during their lifetimes and their sizeable retirement bonuses. Japan’s greying generation is already having an economic impact, for example, driving sales of high-end consumer electronics such as plasma televisions. The impact of their spending will only grow as their numbers increase. Consumption is also being supported at the other end of the demographic spectrum. The number of single-person households and double-income households without children - both tend to be higher per capita consumers - is also growing. These affluent younger people are increasingly choosing higher-end cars and spending more on their homes as they seek to enhance their lifestyles. While some consumers remain cautious because of concerns about pensions, the momentum toward more spending is likely to continue. Even if real incomes fail to rise, with 55 per cent of the $14,000bn (�11,600bn) in household financial assets held in liquid currency and deposits, and an additional $11,000bn in tangible assets including property, Japanese consumers still have deep pockets. With almost 50 per cent of these assets in the hands of people over 65, the pockets of the younger generations are likely to become deeper through inheritance. Changes in taxation that took effect last year will significantly increase the impact of this wealth transfer. While in the past only the first Y1m ($9,000) (�7,300) of an inheritance was exempt from inheritance tax, today the first Y25m is exempt. The tax rate on larger inheritances was also significantly reduced and Japan’s gift tax laws have been relaxed to encourage the transfer of assets before death. The housing market is already benefiting from the early transfer of funds from parents to children. These changes will support consumption by encouraging younger generations to spend earlier in their lives and potentially even take on debt. While concerns about pensions and changes in income or consumption tax may have an impact on consumer confidence and spending, consumption as a means to improve the quality of life is here to stay. With the proven resilience of consumers, a huge pool of savings to draw upon and the positive impact of the ageing population - both as consumers and a source of wealth for younger generations, consumption should only increase. With market commentators predicting slowdowns in the US and China, and growing domestic and international political risks, the good news is that consumption will underpin Japan’s economic recovery. Assuming continued progress in political and economic reform and no major shocks, consumer spending will play an even more positive role and accelerate Japan’s return to economic strength. On a cultural level, the impact of Japan’s steady march toward consumerism is less clear. Given that the same forces driving spending may also risk undermining the values of hard work and thrift upon which the country’s current wealth was founded, finding the right long-term balance will be key to Japan’s future. The writer is chairman of Morgan Stanley Japan Limited
银发族养活日本经济
日本政府最近所发布的经济报告，是90年代泡沫经济时期结束以来最为乐观的一次，将官方对7月份经济状况的评级，从“稳定”(steady)上调为“强劲”(solid)复苏。2004财政年度日本家庭消费的实际增长率预计将达到2.6%，与1月份预测的1.1%形成对比，反映日本家庭的经济景况正在改善。
尽管官方的信心不断增强，但是鉴于日本人口数量下降和老龄化，一些人依然心存疑虑：消费水平作为推动日本GDP增长的最重要因素，是否可持续呢？尽管听上去也许出人意料，但事实上今后10年日本的消费水平将得益于社会和人口结构的变化，并在支持经济复苏方面发挥日趋重要的作用。
日本的消费行为，正经历着从二战后的勤俭模式到当今消费文化的世代性转变，当今的日本人为了改善自身的生活质量更愿意消费。其结果是，日本的消费水平长期以来不断提高，现在已占到GDP的57%(相比美国的70%)，而且这种趋势还有望持续下去。
人口结构的变化，并不像很多人所想象的那样对消费的增长构成威胁。尽管日本人口将于2007年开始减少，但就业人口将在未来一段时期内保持稳定，25岁以上的人口数量直到2014年才会开始下降。退休人员数量的增加有助于促进经济增长，因为他们开始花费毕生的积蓄和可观的退休金。如今，日本的“银发阶层”已开始对经济发挥影响力，比如推动提高等离子电视等高档电子消费品的销售量。随着“银发阶层”人数的增加，他们的消费对经济的影响力只会不断增大。
人口统计表中另一端的阶层也促进了消费水平的提高。单身家庭和丁克(双份收入，无子女)家庭的数量也在增长，这两种家庭的成员多为收入较高的消费者。为改善生活方式，这些富裕的较年轻人群越来越多地选择高档汽车，并增大家居开支。尽管部分消费者出于对养老金的忧虑而保持谨慎的态度，但增加消费的势头有望持续下去。日本家庭金融资产的55%为14万亿美元的流动现金和存款，而另外11万亿美元则为房地产等有形资产，即使日本消费者的实际收入没有增加，他们仍然具有巨大的消费能力。由于65岁以上的人群掌握着日本近50%的家庭资产，因此下一代在继承遗产后消费能力还将进一步增强。
去年生效的税制改革，将大幅增加这种财富转移的影响力。在过去，遗产中只有最初100万日元(合9,000美元)可免于征收遗产税，而现在免税额度已提高到2,500万日元。大额遗产的税率也已经大大降低，而有关赠与税的日本法律更为宽松，鼓励赠与人在死前进行资产转移。父母更早地将资金转给子女，已使住房市场获益。这些变化鼓励较年轻的人群在人生的更早阶段进行消费，甚至可能运用信贷消费，由此支持消费水平。
尽管人们对养老金以及收入或消费税的变化仍有所顾虑，对消费者的信心与花费有一定影响，但消费作为改善生活质量的一种手段已经根深蒂固。鉴于消费者久经验证的达观态度，鉴于日本数额巨大的私人储蓄，鉴于日本老龄人口的积极作用(他们既是消费者，同时又是下一代的财富来源之一)，消费一定会获得增长。
市场评论家预测，美国和中国的经济增长将会放慢，国内和国际政治风险也会加大，但好消息是，消费将稳固地支撑日本的经济复苏。只要日本政治和经济改革进程能够持续下去，并且不发生重大的震荡，消费者的支出将发挥更加积极的作用，有助于日本加速恢复经济实力。
在文化层面上，日本不断向消费主义模式发展会有什么影响还不甚明了。日本正是依靠勤奋和节俭之类的价值观才积累起当今的财富，如果促进消费增长的因素同时也削弱了这些价值观，那么寻求一种合适的长期平衡，对于日本的未来就将是十分关键的。
