China Says Economy Is Cooling, But Consumer Prices Are Up
July 14, 2004 2:15 p.m. Growth in China's consumer prices accelerated in June, the government said in a statement that otherwise said macroeconomic control has been highly effective. The statement posted on the Web site of the National Development and Reform Commission yesterday contained no figure for the much-anticipated consumer price index. It said that, due to a suppressed level of prices a year earlier, 'the June CPI will rise further' after the 4.4% expansion in May from a year earlier. Growth in Lending Slows Otherwise, China's major government planning body said substantial progress is being made in overall macroeconomic control. It said, for instance, 'overinvestment has been limited. The lending growth rate has slowed down, and the price of greens and other products has also been curbed.' In an extensive statement, the commission offered a number of figures for the first five months to support its contention that controls are working. However, it also said problems remain, such as overinvestment, an inefficient lending structure and a 'severe' mismatch between supply and demand for key materials such as coal, electricity and diesel fuel. Rising global petroleum prices are also a concern. 'In general, prices are facing relatively big pressures to rise,' the statement said. At the same time, the commission noted concern in various parts of China over distortions that are underpinning utility and services prices. The report didn't say how shortages could be quickly resolved without increased prices. 'The current priorities are to continue strict control over the too-rapid pace of money lending and to strengthen land management,' the statement said. Meanwhile, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told a cabinet meeting that the government's economic policies aimed at slowing the economy have achieved outstanding results, state media reported Wednesday. However, Mr. Wen warned that fixed-asset investment remains 'a little bit high' while imbalances in supply and demand in the petroleum, coal, power and transport sectors haven't fully eased, China Central Television reported. Separately, long-awaited foreign-reserve numbers for the end of June showed China continued to accumulate hard currency in the second quarter despite government action to reduce the inflow of foreign capital. Analysts have been concerned that China has failed to issue foreign-reserve updates since the end of March. Expanding Foreign Reserves The June data issued Tuesday by China's central bank showed foreign reserves expanded to $470.6 billion from $439.8 billion at the end of the first quarter, suggesting there has been only a slight slowdown in hard-currency accumulation, despite the government's tightening measures. 'Unlike other countries in the region, China is still accumulating foreign reserves,' J.P. Morgan analysts said in a research note. China has tightened reserve requirements for commercial banks, curbed the ability of foreign banks operating in China to borrow offshore, and tightened lending criteria to slow loan growth that was fueling overinvestment.
中国经济降温，但物价继续上涨
中国国家发展和改革委员(National Development and Reform Commission, 简称：发改委)在其网站上刊登的文章中指出，6月份中国消费者价格水平加速增长，但政府的宏观调控措施已经取得明显成效。 但文章中并没有明确的6月份消费者价格指数数据，人们非常期待这一经济指标的数据结果。 文章说，今年5月份消费者价格较上年同期上涨了4.4%，由于去年6月份时的物价水平偏低，今年6月份消费者物价水平还会进一步上涨。 信贷增幅回落 发改委称，政府的宏观调控措施已经取得了明显效果。发改委是中国的部级机关，负责中国的价格监管和产业政策制定。 比如，投资增长过快的势头得到遏制，货币信贷增幅明显回落，粮食等基础产品价格上涨得到抑制。 文章随后又用了一些篇幅，列举了今年前5个月的很多数据来支持宏观调控取得效果的观点。 文章也指出了经济中仍然存在的问题。比如，投资的增长幅度仍然偏高，贷款结构不合理，以及煤电柴油的供求关系相当紧张。全球原油价格上涨也是一个不利因素。 文章说，“价格总水平上涨压力依然较大”。 与此同时，发改委表示，各地要求疏导长期积累的公共事业和服务价格矛盾的呼声很大。文章没有说明如何才能在不涨价的情况下迅速解决供给短缺的问题。 文章说，目前首要的工作是“继续严格控制货币信贷过快增长，加强土地管理”。 另外，中国官方的中央电视台(China Central Television)周叁报导，中国总理温家宝在国务院常务会议上说，政府为遏制经济过热而加强宏观调控的举措已取得突出效果。 但温家宝也提醒大家，固定资产投资规模仍然偏大，投资结构不尽合理，煤电油运供求紧张的矛盾尚未有效缓解。 同时，期待已久的中国6月末外汇储备数据显示，虽然中国政府采取措施阻止海外资本的流入，但中国的硬通货储备在第二季度仍在继续增加。 中国自3月底以来没有发布外汇储备数据，这曾经让分析师担忧不已。 外汇储备继续呈增长势头 中国人民银行(People's Bank of China)周二发布的数据显示，截至6月底，中国外汇储备由第一季度末的4,398亿美元增至4,706亿美元，说明虽然政府采取了紧缩措施，外汇储备的增幅仅仅略微放缓。 JP摩根(JPMorgan)分析师在一个研究报告中称，和该地区其他国家不同，中国外汇储备仍在增长。 中国已经收紧商业银行的存款准备金比率，限制在中国经营业务的外资银行从海外借款的能力并提高信贷标准，以减缓导致过度投资的贷款增长。
