Beijing Restrains Growth In Loans But Raises Risks
BEIJING -- China appears to be making headway toward cooling its economy while still attracting substantial levels of foreign investment. But economists caution that Beijing's policies are creating new problems that make it hard to judge whether the economy can achieve a so-called soft landing.
Loan growth eased in June, increasing by 16.7% compared with a year earlier, according to data issued by the People's Bank of China, the central bank. That was a drop from the previous month, when loan growth rose 19%. At the same time, expansion in M2 money supply -- a broad gauge of how much currency is in circulation in the economy and deposited in banks -- eased to 16.2% at the end of last month compared with a year earlier, and from 17.5% at the end of May, the data showed. M2 growth is now well below a peak of 21.6% last August, the figure that first set off alarms.
The data reinforce earlier signs that the state-owned banking system is responding to Beijing's efforts to rein in lending to curb investment in several sectors of the economy. Overinvestment in everything from steel factories to residential high-rises has threatened to stoke inflation and derail the country's economic expansion.
Concern about economic overheating, and Beijing's approach to halt it, has done little to spook foreign investors, who poured a record $33.9 billion in direct investment into the country in the first half of this year, according to figures posted on the Ministry of Commerce's Web site. That constitutes a rise of 12% over the amount invested in the first half of 2003, and exceeds the 11.3% growth recorded in the first five months of the year compared with the year-earlier period. The amount of pledged foreign investment, as opposed to money actually put into joint ventures and other projects, rose 43% in the first half, to $72.7 billion, from a year earlier.
Yet there is anecdotal evidence that Beijing's policies are creating new problems. Some businesses that weren't the intended target of the credit controls, including many small and midsize enterprises, say they are being denied loans they need to keep functioning, let alone to expand. Some say they are being forced to borrow money from gray-market lenders at exorbitant rates. As such, Beijing's administrative measures, if maintained too long, carry the risk of strangling healthy components of the economy.
That presents Chinese leaders with something of a dilemma. If they reopen the tap on bank credit, money could flow right back into the type of projects they want to confine. "At the end of the day, China is using a fairly blunt tool," said Joseph Lau, an economist with Credit Suisse First Boston in Hong Kong. "So far the credit-tightening measures have attacked the symptoms of excessive investment, but not necessarily the underlying causes."
There is still a lot of heat in China's economy, suggesting overinvestment could quickly return if leaders ease up on the brakes. The city of Shanghai, for example, posted a blistering 15% rise in gross domestic product in the first half compared with a year earlier. And on Monday, China reported June import figures that were higher than expected. The increase outpaced the rise in exports, suggesting significant investment is continuing in the domestic economy even in the absence of easy bank credit. Inflation is also accelerating. China announced early today that the consumer price index rose in June at a rate higher than the 4.4% expansion in May, although it didn't announce a figure.
Mr. Lau and other economists say China will have to employ other tools to cool the economy, including raising interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.
中国经济降温举措催生新问题
中国给经济降温的努力似乎取得了一定进展，而且并未妨碍外资的大量涌入。不过，经济学家提醒说，政府此举正在催生出新的问题，使得难以判断经济能否实现所谓的软著陆。
中国的央行──中国人民银行(People's Bank of China)昨日发布的数据显示，6月份贷款增长放缓，较上年同期的增幅为16.7%，低于5月份的19%。同时，M2货币供应量（衡量经济中流通货币和银行存款的广义指标）较上年同期的增幅由5月份的17.5%下滑至16.2%，大大低于去年8月创下的21.6%的高点。也正是去年8月的这一数字率先给人们敲响了经济过热的警钟。
这些数据越发印证了先前的一些迹象，即国有金融体系正在应中国政府要求控制贷款规模，以遏制某些经济领域的投资。从钢铁厂到住宅等部分领域的投资过热有加剧通货膨胀的危险，并破坏了正常的经济发展进程。
对经济过热的担忧以及政府的相应对策并没有挫伤外国投资者的热情。商务部(Ministry of Commerce)网站昨日公布的数据显示，今年上半年，外国直接投资额达到创纪录的339亿美元，较上年同期增长12%，也略高于前5个月11.3%的增幅。合同利用外资额较上年同期增长43%，达727亿美元。
但是，有迹象表明，中国政府的政策正在带来新的问题。一些并非信贷控制行业的公司（包括许多中小企业）表示它们无法获得维持运营所需的贷款，更别说扩大业务了。一些企业不得不去民间借高利贷。同样地，如果政府的行政措施维持时间过长，那么经济中的良性发展领域就面临被扼杀的风险。
雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)经济学家罗伯特?苏巴拉曼(Robert Subbaraman)称，无庸置疑，中国经济增长正在减缓，而中国将以何种方式著陆仍是未知数，问题在于政府是否行为过激。
这将中国领导人置于两难境地。如果他们重新放开银行贷款，资金可能流回到他们想要遏制的行业中去。而问题的核心是地方政府肆意干预经济活动。尽管中央政府尝试进行改革，但地方政府仍常常向国有银行当地分行的管理层大力施压。
这些官员们经常指示银行向可能带来大量就业机会的大规模行业项目放款，即使这些项目的长期前景令人堪忧。
银行管理人士、政府高官、地方企业家之间的这种同盟关系正是多数过度投资产生的症结所在，也说明了为何一旦政府放开控制，投资过热现象可能再度涌现的原因。
瑞士信贷第一波士顿(Credit Suisse First Boston)驻香港的经济师Joseph Lau称，中国最终会在无奈之下使用加息等影响更为直接的工具。目前而言信贷紧缩措施针对的只是过度投资的表象，而不一定是造成这种现象的根本原因。
现在中国经济仍热度不减，表明如果领导人松开刹车，过热现象可能迅速卷土重来。例如，上海市今年上半年国内生产总值较上年同期增长14.8%。这一惊人增速远远超过了第一季度的9.6%及2003年全年的11.8%。虽然第二季度固定资产投资增长比前一季度略有放缓，但仍达到25.9%，大量资金流向了已经过热的房地产领域。
中国政府本周早些时候公布的6月份进口数据超过预期，进口增长超过出口增长，表明虽然信贷紧缩，但仍有大量投资源源不断地涌入国内经济领域。
Lau和其他众多经济学家都表示，他们认为中国将不得不采用其他工具来控制经济过热，包括近十年来首次加息。中国一直不愿提高利率，部分原因是这将使步履维艰的国有企业更难以偿还大多从国有银行借入的贷款，导致这些金融机构本已居高不下的坏帐比率进一步上升。央行官员曾暗示，如果消费者价格指数上涨5%或更高水平，他们或许会提高利率。
消费者价格指数连同第二季度经济增长数据定于本周晚些时候公布。今年第一季度，中国经济较上年同期增长9.8%。
