Wenzhou gang stirs fears for property prices
In Shanghai, they are known as the "Wenzhou gang": tour groups that arrive inChina's commercial capital not wielding cameras to take in the sights but carrying suitcases stuffed with cash to buy property.
Named after the city south of Shanghai boasting the country's most boisterous private sector, the Wenzhou gang has become an unwelcome symbol of how speculation has pushed up real estate prices in most of China's prosperous cities, around the Yangtze delta.
The Wenzhou newspaper that organised the tours cancelled them in May after bad publicity and official pressure, but now says they will be resumed this month to meet readers' demand for investment outlets. "The central government ordered us to stop the tours but supply and demand rather than individual behaviour or administrative intervention will eventually rule the market," says Dong Wenyuan, of Wenzhou Evening News.
The return of the Wenzhou gang is worrying for Shanghai, which has been trying to rein in property prices for almost a year, a campaign that has national political implications.
Foreign investors, such as Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Singapore's CapitalLand and Australia's Macquarie Bank, which have all invested in Shanghai property, are also nervously watching the market.
The Shanghai leadership has come under heavy criticism from Beijing for its handling of real estate over the past year. Prices rose too quickly; many residents were forced out of their homes; and senior officials profited from under-the-table deals with developers.
Shanghai has responded with measures to quell property speculation by restricting pre-sales of apartments, raising developers' equity in projects, reducing land supply and stopping wholesale evictions.
Along with a credit squeeze, the measures are limiting the supply of new apartments and forcing many developers out of the industry.
In most markets a reduction in land supply and apartments would lead to higher prices, but that has not happened in Shanghai. The government says price rises have slowed sharply this year from an annual increase of about 30 per cent in 2003 year-on-year, to under 10 per cent in 2004.
The government has achieved these two seemingly contradictory outcomes - reducing supply and the level of price rises at the same time - by favouring overwhelmingly the construction of cheaper apartments, thus reducing average prices.
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But many analysts believe Shanghai real estate is a bubble ready to burst. "Shanghai property is a disaster waiting to happen - prices could fall precipitously in the coming months," says Andy Xie, Morgan Stanley's Hong Kong-based economist.
A number of the city's larger developers admit privately that the speed at which they are selling new apartments has fallen rapidly since May because, they say, buyers are holding off, waiting for prices to drop.
The number of empty apartments in new buildings is also high, up to 40-50 per cent by some estimates.
However, the developers themselves, such as Chung Shuiming, a senior executive at Shimao, one of Shanghai's largest private real estate companies, disagree, saying that demand remains strong.
The latest apartments to come on to the market for Shimao's signature development, a series of tall towers straddling the Huangpu river in Pudong, are selling for Rmb18,000 ($2,200, ?1,800, ￡1,200) a square metre. "Our prices might seem high but in the city centre there are many properties selling for this amount," says Mr Chung.
In Hong Kong, property of the same quality would cost five times as much, he says, one reason that Shimao is aggressively marketing its apartments overseas.
Mr Chung says a recent roadshow for overseas Chinese communities in San Francisco and Los Angeles secured deposits allowing for bids for about 20 per cent of the 500 units in the development's fifth tower.
Shimao sells about half of its units to Shanghai locals and the rest offshore or to residents elsewhere in China.
The Shanghai government, which seems confident it has contained the market for the moment, now must ensure prices do not plummet.
Any significant fall could provoke a dangerous political backlash for the government because so much household wealth in urban centres along the coast is bound up in private property.
"The government has three policies to cool the market down," said the head of a mortgage service company.
"But if it slows down too quickly, then they have three policies to get it going again."
中国：温州帮加剧上海楼市紧张气氛
在上海，他们被称作“温州帮”。他们成群结队来到中国的商业之都，不是四处拍照留念，而是拎着装满现金的手提箱购买房产。
温州是个位于上海南部的城市，拥有全中国最发达的私营部门。温州帮由此得名，并成为在中国长江三角洲一带，大多数繁华城市中，哄抬房价等投机活动的典型，这些活动不受人欢迎。
今年5月，由于名声不佳，再加上官方的压力，负责组织购房团的温州报社取消了此类活动。但现在他们却说本月要重新恢复，以满足读者对投资渠道的需求。《温州晚报》的董文远（音译，Dong Wenyuan）说：“中央政府命令我们停止组织购房团，但最终决定市场的将是供求关系，而非个人行为或行政干预。”
温州帮卷土重来令上海忧心忡忡。近一年来，该市一直试图平抑房地产价格，这一行动对全国具有政治影响。
摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）、德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）、新加坡的凯德置地（CapitalLand）和澳大利亚的麦格理银行（Macquarie Bank）等一些投资于上海房地产的外国投资者，也都紧张地关注着市场走势。
上海领导人因去年在房地产问题上措施不力，而受到北京方面的严厉批评。当地房价上涨过快，很多居民被强令拆迁，还有一些高级官员利用与开发商的幕后交易中饱私囊。
为打击房地产投机，上海采取了一系列应对措施，其中包括限制期房销售，提高开发商投入项目的股本份额要求，减少土地供应，以及禁止大规模强令拆迁等。
随着信贷的紧缩，这些措施正限制新房供给，并迫使许多开发商退出这一行业。
在大多数市场上，土地和房屋供给的减少，将导致房价上涨，但上海还没有发生类似情况。政府说，今年房价上涨速度大幅放缓，年增长率从2003年的30%左右下降至2004年的不足10%。
通过大力支持中低价房建设，以降低平均房价，政府实现了两个看似矛盾的目标：在减少供给的同时，压低房价涨幅。
但很多分析师认为，上海房地产市场是个即将破灭的泡沫。香港摩根士丹利的经济学家谢国忠（Andy Xie）说：“上海房地产危机迟早会到来，未来几个月房价可能出现暴跌。”
该市许多大型开发商私下都承认，自5月份以来，新房销售速度已明显放缓。他们说，这是因为购房者均持观望态度，等着房价下跌。
新楼盘中的空置率也很高，有些人估计高达40%到50%。
不过，一些开发商却对此不以为然，诸如上海最大的私人房地产公司世茂集团（Shimao Group）的高级主管钟瑞明（Chung Shuiming）。他们说，需求仍然很强劲。
世茂近期推出的楼盘是其在浦东黄浦江沿岸开发的多座高层商品房，每平方米售价1.8万元（合2200美元）。钟先生说：“我们的价格看上去高些，但在市中心很多楼盘都是这个价位。”
他说，在香港，相同质量房屋的价格是其5倍，这也是世茂到海外大力推销其房屋的一个原因。
钟先生说，最近向旧金山和洛杉矶的海外华人路演所获得的定金，足以用来投标购买该小区7号楼500套房屋中的20%。
世茂半数的房屋出售给上海人，其它则出售给外国人或外地人。
上海市政府看来对眼下平抑房价信心十足，但现在还必须确保房价不会暴跌。
一旦房价猛跌，就会给政府带来危险的政治影响，因为黄浦江沿岸市中心的大量家庭财富都同私人房地产绑在了一起。
一家抵押贷款公司的主管说：“政府为市场降温有3项政策。”
“但如果房价下滑过快，他们还会拿出3项政策使其再度回升。”
