Chinese Banks Slowly Learn To Walk on Own
Long conditioned to serve as simple cashiers for state-owned enterprises, China's banks are starting to learn how to behave like ... banks.
It's a shift -- albeit a slow one -- that could have implications for the Chinese economy.
Even the bloated big four state banks -- Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China -- are moving away from their roots as instruments of government policy. They are no longer meekly doling out wads of cash to borrowers at the behest of the local party secretary, a role that has left them with piles of bad debt totaling nearly half their loan books.
But the need to follow certain government dictates still sometimes constrains banks' freedom. That fact became abundantly clear when Beijing officials ordered banks to cut back lending this year to cool the country's economy.
"We are in a transition from being 100% an arm of the government to being commercial, so of course there are a lot of inconsistencies," says a Bank of China executive. "We must look for pure profit maximization under the national objectives."
How China's banks respond to the conflicting imperatives to support the government while trying to lend to borrowers who can deploy money productively will have a powerful influence on the next turn in China's economic development. The more banks make their own lending decisions, the less control the state maintains over an important lever it uses to modulate economic growth. At the same time, independent banks, rather than government fiat, are more likely to force debt-laden state-owned enterprises to become competitive.
China's regulators have "new rules limiting the amount of new lending for commercial loans," says Wang Jun, the head of financial conglomerate China International Trust & Investment, which controls Citic Industrial Bank. Still, with deposits increasing, he says, "we are increasing our loans, but we are also strengthening our screening and have more strict rules to prevent nonperforming loans among the new loans."
Most crucially, China's banks are attempting to redefine their relations with local governments and state enterprises, in a cautious but nevertheless significant declaration of independence.
Until recently, bank branches were under the thumb of local officials. Local governments set bank salaries, guaranteed loans with impunity and even played a role in what schools the children of bank employees attended. The banks, with little choice, frequently ignored routine risk calculations and limits on the size of loans to any one borrower, at the behest of party and government officials.
That is all changing.
"In the past, I would go to the provincial capital and be shocked that the local branch manager was sitting next to the vice governor as if he is the vice governor's person," the Bank of China executive says. "Now, the branch manager sits next to me."
Local officials are no longer allowed to guarantee loans or even nominate the local bank head. Today, they can only second the nomination.
The balance of power also is shifting between banks and the state-owned enterprises. In the past, bankers were summoned to the offices of the enterprises, were told their requirements and were expected to agree to the requests. Now, slowly, the banks are gaining the advantage.
"Yesterday, we wouldn't cut them off," says a senior official at one of the second-tier banks. "Today we do, even if they say, 'Without the loan, we will have no food.' "
As banks grow more profit-oriented and competitive, they face tough challenges. Chief among these is how to cope with too much money. China's soaring exports earn foreign-exchange revenue, but the money can't freely exit from China because of the government's currency controls. So dollars get exchanged into ever-growing piles of yuan that banks then lend out at super-low interest rates -- sometimes for projects that don't deserve funding, which may lead to more bad loans piling up. "Cheap capital distorts competition," says Peggy Yu, who runs DangDang.com, a Chinese online retailer.
Still, the banks recently have been allowed to charge fees that at least begin to reflect the risk involved. With the ability to charge more for less-certain prospects, the banks have begun to venture into new territory, lending to smaller enterprises and individuals. The mortgage-lending market has soared. For example, during the past year, China Construction Bank in Shanghai, has increased its portfolio of such loans by 40%.
Indeed, consumer spending, supported by the banks, will be an important source of growth both for the banks and for the economy as a whole. "Our loan book is out of balance," Mr. Wang says. "We intend to grow our retail loans more than our commercial loans this year."
Yet for all the progress China's banks have made toward independence, they still jump when Beijing really turns on the pressure.
Few know that better than Harry Banga, vice chairman of Hong Kong trading company Noble Group. Worried that China's growth was getting out of control, government officials in April asked bankers to curb lending. Noble's customers suddenly found themselves unable to obtain bank support to import the raw materials they needed to make everything from soy milk to steel. "Business just stopped. Nobody could open a letter of credit," says Mr. Banga, who notes that the money tap has since reopened.
中国银行业迈向商业化
长期以来只是作为国有企业钱袋子的中国银行业开始学习如何像银行一样运营了。这种转变过程虽然比较缓慢，但可能对中国经济增长的质量带来巨大影响。
如今，由于尚须遵从某些政府指令，中国各银行的自由仍然受到限制。政府今年要求银行缩减贷款以遏制经济过热就是一个明显例证。
但是，在这种表面现象背后，就连四大国有银行──中国银行(Bank of China)、中国建设银行(China Construction Bank)、中国工商银行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China)和中国农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China )也正在逐步摆脱仅仅作为政府政策工具的角色。它们不再仅凭当地市委书记的吩咐就向借款人发放大量资金，这种昔日的做法使得各银行背负了沉重的坏帐负担，近乎它们贷款总额的一半。
中国银行的一位管理人士称，“我们正在从百分之百的政府机构向商业化银行转型，所以当然会存在许多不协调的地方。我们必须在国家目标之下追求纯粹的利润最大化。”
中国银行业在向能够有效运用资金的借款人放贷和助政府一臂之力之间如何寻找平衡点，将对下一轮的经济发展产生有力影响。银行自行作出放贷决定的情况越多，政府对这一调控经济增长重要杠杆的控制就越小。同时，独立的银行业比政府指令更有可能迫使负债累累的国有企业增强竞争力。
控股中信实业银行(CITIC Industrial Bank)的中信集团公司(China International Trust & Investment)董事长王军说，中国监管部门推出了限制新增商业贷款规模的新规定。由于存款不断增长，“我们正在提高放贷数量，但也加强了审核，采取了更严格的措施来避免新贷款中坏帐出现。
最至关重要的是，中国的银行业正在试图重新界定它们与地方政府和国有企业的关系，开始小心翼翼地宣告其独立性，此举可谓意义深远。
直到最近，各银行的分支机构一直处于地方官员的控制之下。地方政府制定银行的工资水平，提供贷款担保却不受惩罚，甚至连银行职员子女就读什么学校都横加干涉。别无选择的银行常常只能放弃常规的风险评估和对放贷规模的限制，仅仅屈从于党政机关的命令。
但这一切正在发生改变。
中国银行的管理人士回忆道，“过去我去省会时很吃惊地发现，当地分行行长坐在副市长的旁边，就好像他是这位副市长的下属一样。而现在，分行行长是挨著我坐。”
地方官员不再被允许提供贷款担保甚至无权任命当地银行行长。如今，他们只能附和这一任命决定。
银行与国有企业之间的权力关系也正在改变。过去，银行管理人士会被叫到企业的办公室，被告知企业的要求，而银行只能被动接受。如今，银行开始逐渐占据优势。
某二线股份制银行的高级管理人士说，“以前我们决不会拒绝他们，而现在，我们就可以这样做，尽管他们会说，“没有贷款，我们就没有饭吃了。”
此外，银行业首次在彼此之间展开竞争。大型国有银行运用它们的影响力可以提供更长期限、更大规模的贷款。同时，规模较小一些的商业银行则游说客户说，它们能够比大银行更自主地作出贷款决策。
这家二线银行的管理人士称，“我们说，我们是独立的。如果政府突然改变信贷政策，我们不会像四大银行那样把你拒之门外。”
随著商业化意识以及竞争力的增强，中国的各银行面临严峻挑战。颇具讽刺意味的是，他们的首要问题居然是如何处理太多的资金。中国出口的迅猛增长使外汇收入激增，但由于政府的外汇管制，这些资金不能自由离开中国。因此，大量美元被兑换成了人民币，银行然后将这些人民币资金以超低利率贷出去──有时发放给那些并不符合融资条件的项目，这或许会导致今后更多坏帐出现。
网上零售商当当网(DangDang.com)联合总裁俞渝(Peggy Yu)称，廉价的资金损害了竞争，没有人考虑资金效率问题。
不过，中国的银行业最近获准根据蕴含风险的不同采取不同费率。在能够对前景不确定的贷款征收更高费率之后，银行开始向新的领域进军，面向规模更小的企业和个人放贷，住房按揭贷款市场因此蓬勃兴起。例如，在过去的一年中，中国建设银行上海分行这类贷款的规模增长了40%。
实际上，由银行贷款支撑的消费者支出将成为银行和整个经济增长的重要来源。王军说，中信实业银行的贷款规模失衡，该行打算今年大力发展零售贷款业务，而不是商业贷款业务。
中国银行业虽然在迈向独立进程中取得了长足进展，但仍受制于来自政府的压力。
这一点没有人比香港上市公司来宝集团(Noble Group)副董事长哈里?班戈(Harry Banga)更深有体会。今年4月，出于对中国经济增长失控的担忧，中国政府要求各银行遏制放贷规模。来宝集团的客户突然间发现它们无法获得银行支持来进口从生产豆奶到钢铁等各类产品所需的原料。班戈说，当时公司业务骤然中断，没有客户能够开具信用证。不过他说，此后贷款又开始有所放开。
