ADB Pres: China Econ To Make Soft Landing In 2, 3 Years
TOKYO -- China's economy will likely achieve a soft landing within two or three years given various steps the government is currently pursuing, the head of the Asian Development Bank said Friday.
"The Chinese government must keep the economy from overheating but also sustain growth," ADB President Tadao Chino said in a speech in Tokyo.
But Chino noted that Beijing was taking measures such as curbing bank lending, so "I think it will succeed in achieving a soft landing within two or three years."
Among steps the Chinese government has taken to curb overheating, the People's Bank of China has increased reserve requirements for commercial banks, and prohibited commercial banks from providing mortgage loans for unfinished projects, Chino said.
Chinese banking regulators are also enforcing stricter lending standards and requiring that a larger proportion of financing for steel and aluminum-related projects come from the equity market and not bank lending, Chino added.
At the same time, Beijing has called for continued financial support for projects involving coal, electricity and the water supply, while excluding agriculture, irrigation and education-related projects from consolidation, the ADB head said.
"The government is trying to address structural problems and achieve more balanced growth, particularly by reorganizing investment in underinvested sectors, such as agriculture," Chino said.
Thus, while the overheating of China's economy can be viewed as a potential risk to Asian growth going forward, "we believe the economy can achieve a soft landing," he said.
Over time, China will likely become Japan's largest trading partner, Chino added, citing recent studies by the Tokyo-based ADB Institute showing that China will become Asia's largest importer by 2005, and the largest exporter in the region by 2010.
"By 2020, China will become Japan's largest bilateral trading partner," he said.
Aside from China, Chino said crude oil prices were another potential risk for Asian economies, especially given recent price surges.
"But given the current low inflation environment in Asia, it is unlikely to greatly harm the current growth trend," Chino said, projecting economic growth among the ADB's 41 developing member economies as a whole to reach 6.8% in 2004 and 6.7% in 2005.
That would be stronger than the 6.3% growth marked in 2003, which itself was much higher than the world growth rate of 2.6% in the same period, he said.
Chino, a former Japanese vice finance minister for international affairs, also touched upon the need to look into the establishment of an Asian single currency - similar to that of the euro.
"An Asian single currency offers a number of potential benefits for participating economies, particularly increased exchange rate stability and lowered transaction costs for trade and investment," Chino said.
While noting that a single currency would also involve sacrifices, such as the need for participating countries to give up independent monetary policy and adhere to common fiscal targets, he said, "the potential benefits of increased regional integration may outweigh the costs."
Chino was giving a speech on Asia's economic prospects and challenges organized by the Yomiuri International Economic Society.
亚洲开发银行：中国经济将在两三年内软著陆
亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)行长千野忠男(Tadao Chino)周五称，考虑到中国当前采取的各种措施，中国经济很可能将在两三年内实现软著陆。
千野忠男在东京发表讲话时称，中国政府须防止经济过热，但同时也要维持经济增长。
但千野忠男指出，北京正在采取遏制银行贷款等措施，因此他认为中国经济将在两三年内成功实现软著陆。
千野忠男说，为遏制经济过热发展，中国人民银行(People's Bank of China)增加了商业银行的法定准备金要求，并禁止商业银行向未完工项目提供抵押贷款。
千野忠男补充道，中国银行业的监管机构还强制推行了更为严格的贷款标准，并要求钢铁和电解铝相关项目更多从股市而非银行获取资金。
同时，他说，中国中央政府呼吁继续支持煤炭、电力和水供应项目，同时尽量避免农业、灌溉和教育相关项目受到负面冲击。
千野忠男说，中国政府正试图解决结构性问题，并实现更均衡的发展，特别是通过重组农业投资来改善农业部门投资不足的问题。
他说，尽管中国经济过热可能被视为是威胁亚洲经济继续增长的一个潜在风险，但他对中国能够实现软著陆有信心。
千野忠男说，长期来看，中国将成为日本最大的贸易伙伴。他援引亚洲开发银行最近的一份研究结果说，2005年前中国将成为亚洲最大的进口国，并在2010年前成为最大出口国。
他说，2020年前，中国将成为日本最大双边贸易伙伴。
除中国外，千野忠男认为油价也是亚洲经济体面临的一个潜在威胁，特别是在最近油价高企的环境下。
但他说，鉴于目前亚洲通货膨胀率较低，油价问题不太可能对目前的经济增长势头造成太大影响。他预计，亚洲开发银行41个发展中成员国2004年的整体增幅将在6.8%，2005年为6.7%。
他说，今年的经济增幅应该会高于2003年的6.3%，当时这一水平就已经超出了2.6%的世界平均水平。
千野忠男还谈及了探讨建立一个类似于欧元的亚洲统一货币这个问题的必要性。
他说，这能为成员国家和地区带来更多好处，特别是增加汇率稳定性，降低贸易和投资的汇兑成本。
他同时指出单一货币可能带来一些负面效应，如需要参与者放弃独立的货币政策并坚持统一的财政目标。但千野忠男认为亚洲地区更为一体化所带来的优势应该会超过上述代价。
千野忠男是在由读卖新闻国际经济协会(Yomiuri International Economic Society)主办的一次会议上就亚洲经济前景和面临的挑战发表上述讲话的。
