South Koreans look to futures
Yoon Nam-sik, a 43-year-old investor in Seoul, began to pump cash into equity derivatives five years ago to help make up for losses sustained from a failed online shopping mall that he set up following the Asian financial crisis.
As Mr Yoon's company ran into trouble he had to find ways to pay his employees and repay debts. The equity futures market caught his eye.
"I could make big money with small investments, if my prediction turned out right," he said.
Mr Yoon is one of the army of retail investors who have made South Korea's futures and options market the most actively-traded in the world.
The Korea Futures Exchange is the world's biggest in terms of numbers of options contracts, its flagship product. Remarkably, it accounts for more than 60 per cent of total global trading volume.
The number of contracts on Seoul's Kospi 200 index options jumped 50 per cent to 2.8bn in 2003. Futures volumes are also big. The Kospi 200 futures contract is the fourth most actively traded in the world futures market.
Retail investors such as Mr Yoon are the dominant force in South Korea's futures and options market, accounting for more than half of total trading. They are attracted by the potential for high returns at a time when the country's interest rates are languishing at a record low of 3.75 per cent.
Although Kospi volumes are huge, values are small. Retail investors, mostly day traders, trade options with relatively low premiums. For options, the value of a one-tick movement in the Kospi 200 index option is Won1,000 ($0.87). For futures, a one-tick movement is Won25,000.
To put these sizes in context, the contract unit of the Kospi 200 index futures is $45,000 while that of S&P 500 index on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is almost six times as big at $260,000.
Derivatives trading took off in South Korea after the 1997/98 economic crisis, as investors began to realise the importance of risk management.
"When you buy stocks, you just anxiously wait for them to rise and there is no way to stem losses when the market starts falling," said Mr Yoon. "But you have more choices in the derivatives market. You can make profits whether the market rises or falls, if you know the market direction."
Analysts said that many retail investors are lured into derivatives trading by its leverage effect. "People invest in derivatives as if they buy lotteries," said Jun Kyun at Samsung Securities.
Smaller initial margins and a smaller trading unit make it easier for retail investors to make big bets in the market, he said. "Most of them are speculators, who are not aware of the high risks involved."
The futures exchange requires investors to pay only 15 per cent of their order as initial margins.
Easy access to broadband services has also contributed to the active participation of retail investors by reducing trading fees.
However, speculative futures trading by day traders is posing risks to stock investors by increasing volatility.
"Many stock investors are shifting to futures as the spot market remains sluggish," said Chang In-hwan, who runs KTB Asset Management. He added that retail investors are attracted to equity index futures and options because stock prices do not reflect corporate value well in South Korea.
"It's hard for retail investors to make money by investing in individual stocks, due to the so-called Korea discount," he said.
Analysts say many South Korean shares are under-valued due to geopolitical risk involving North Korea's nuclear programme, unstable politics and poor corporate governance.
"Futures trading is easier for them because they can make money by predicting only the market direction," said Mr Chang.
Analysts said the market needed to broaden its customer base and diversify its products to achieve balanced growth. Participation of foreign investors and local institutions is still limited, as the market is seen as too risky.
"We have achieved quantity growth. It's time to focus on quality," said Choi Tae-joo, a spokesman for the Korea Futures Exchange.
韩国人开始关注期货
尹南植(Yoon Nam-sik，音译)是汉城一位43岁的投资人。5年前，他开始把钱投入股票衍生品市场，以帮助弥补他因网上购物商城失败而导致的持续亏损。该网站是他在亚洲金融危机后开的。
当尹先生的公司陷入困境时，他不得不设法支付员工的工资并偿付债务。股票期货市场引起了他的注意。
“如果我的预测证明是正确的，那我就能用小投资赚到大钱，”他说道。
尹先生是散户投资者大军中的一员，这些散户使韩国期货和期权市场成为世界上交易最活跃的市场。
韩国期货交易所(Korea Futures Exchange)是全球期权合约交易量最大的交易所，期权合约是该交易所的旗舰交易品种。引人注目的是，该交易所占全球期权交易总量的60%以上。
汉城的韩国股票价格成份指数200(Kospi 200)期权合约的交易数量在2003年猛增了50%，达到28亿份合约。期货成交量也很大。Kospi 200期货合约是全球期货市场上交易活跃度排名第四的期货品种。
像尹先生这样的散户投资者是韩国期货和期权市场的主导力量，占交易总量的一半以上。目前韩国利率在创纪录的3.75%低点徘徊，于是他们被潜在的高回报所吸引。
尽管Kospi的交易量巨大，但交易价值很小。散户投资人大多数是当日交易者，他们用相对较低的溢价进行期权交易。就期权而言，Kospi 200指数期权变动一个点的价值等于1000韩元(合0.87美元)。就期货而言，一个点的变动等于2.5万韩元。
把这些规模进行横向比较，Kospi 200指数期货的合约单位价值为4.5万美元，而芝加哥商品交易所(Chicago Mercantile Exchange)标准普尔500指数期货的合约单位价值为26万美元，几乎是它的6倍。
1997至1998年间的经济危机之后，随着投资者开始意识到风险管理的重要性，金融衍生品种交易在韩国迅速发展起来。
“当你买入股票后，你只是急切地期待它们上涨，而当市场开始下跌时，你却没有方法阻损，”尹先生说，“但在衍生产品市场你有更多的选择。不管市场涨还是跌，只要你知道市场的方向，你就能赚钱。”
分析师说，很多散户投资者被衍生产品交易的杠杆效应吸引而纷纷加入。“人们投资衍生产品就像买彩票一样，”三星证券(Samsung Securities)的 Jun Kyun说。
他说，较小的初始保证金和较小的交易单位使散户投资者更容易在市场投下大赌注。“他们之中多数是投机者，并没有意识到其中蕴含的高风险。”
期货交易所仅要求投资者缴纳下单价值的15%，作为初始保证金。
宽带服务的普及也降低了交易费用，为散户投资者的积极参与助了一臂之力。
然而，当日交易者进行的投机性期货交易加大了市场波动性，给股票投资者带来了风险。
“由于股票现货市场保持低迷，许多股票投资者正转向期货，”KTB资产管理公司(KTB Asset Management)总裁姜音万(Chang In-hwan)说。他补充道，散户投资者被股指期货和期权所吸引，原因是韩国的股票价格没有很好的反映公司价值。
“散户投资者很难通过投资单个股票赚钱，原因是所谓的朝鲜折价，”他说。
分析师说，由于与朝鲜核项目有关的地缘政治风险、不稳定的政治及糟糕的公司治理，许多韩国股票的价值被低估。
“期货交易对他们来说比较容易，因为他们只要通过预测市场走向就能赚钱，”姜先生说道。
分析师表示，该市场需要拓宽客户基础，并使其产品多样化，以取得平衡增长。由于人们认为该市场风险太大，因此外国投资者和本地机构的参与仍然有限。
“我们已取得了量的增长。现在是把目光放在质上的时候了，”韩国期货交易所发言人崔太珠(Choi Tae-joo，音译)说道。
