Fund Industry Is Taking Off in China
China's fund-management industry, after several years of languid development, suddenly has become a sleeper hit, with new funds being launched every other week. But the rapidly crowding field is bringing problems of its own.
Heated competition for limited fund-distribution channels, more fund managers chasing the same select pool of Chinese stocks, and a short-term trading mentality among customers are compounding broader problems for the nascent industry, such as the potential of a slower economy. For some of the new foreign players especially, the situation could start to get uncomfortable, and even unprofitable.
"It's like the consumer-products industry. It has very high growth in demand but more growth in supply, and it's happening in one of the most competitive, cutthroat, and low-profitability markets in the world," says Blair Pickerell, chief executive of HSBC BankPLC's HSBC Asset Management in Hong Kong. Mr. Pickerell, an industry pioneer, attempted in vain to buy a stake in a Chinese fund company when he headed Jardine Fleming Asset Management more than three years ago. "Foreigners will probably find it a long, hard slog," he says.
The development of the fund-management industry is crucial to China's efforts to build a sounder stock market and to overhaul the financial system, a main engine fueling the country's economic growth. With more fund-management concerns managing the assets of ordinary citizens, pension funds and insurance companies, publicly traded Chinese companies must increase their transparency and profitability to attract the attention of these cash-rich investors. Fund-management companies also can assist in Beijing's campaign to overhaul its bad-debt-laden banking system by providing banks, which can charge fees for selling mutual funds, with a low-risk, lucrative source of revenue.
And as one of the earliest industries in China's financial sector to allow and regulate foreign ownership and joint ventures in Chinese concerns, the asset-management industry may provide a preview of how other financial industries, such as insurance, banking and stockbroking, eventually might take shape. By the end of December, foreigners will be able to increase their stakes in joint-venture fund companies to 49% from 33%.
The six-year-old industry has amassed about $25 billion in assets, much of it during the past 18 months. More than 30 domestic fund-management concerns and 16 Chinese foreign joint ventures are pitching their products to Chinese investors, who have socked away the equivalent of about $1.3 trillion in savings. About 35 fund-management companies have launched 75 open-end mutual funds and 54 closed-end funds.
More foreign companies are vying for a piece of the action. Fund managers from Europe, Canada and the U.S. already have planted stakes. Those waiting for regulatory approval to operate include Prudential Financial Inc.'s Prumerica Financial, Merrill Lynch& Co.'s Investment Managers arm, Principal Financial Group Inc. and American International Group Inc. of the U.S., and Australia's First State Investments.
Early signs suggest fund managers are having mixed success in China. Chinese individual investors are accustomed to churning red-hot initial public offerings in pursuit of a quick profit, and it is proving difficult to persuade them of the benefits of long-term investing and dollar-cost averaging. Last year, joint ventures with investment-management arms of Germany's Dresdner Bank AG , Belgium's Fortis and the Netherlands' ING Groep NV drew more than $400 million each when they launched new funds. Just a few months later, by the end of December, they had each lost between 24% and 44% of their initial assets.
"Our understanding of a long-term view is five years or longer, but for investors and even our own staff and intermediaries, long-term is only a year or half a year," laments Mandy Wang, general manager of China International Fund Management Co. in Shanghai. "There's really a gap."
A slower Chinese economy and the potential of higher interest rates could exacerbate some investors' tendency to redeem their funds at the first sign of trouble. Other investors would likely opt to leave their money in bank deposits with higher interest rates, rather than buy new, unfamiliar products, says Stuart Leckie, head of industry consultant Stirling Finance Ltd. in Hong Kong. "It would cause the launch of new funds to slow right down."
Another major problem is distribution. The main channel to sell funds is the branch networks of the four major state-owned commercial banks. But with little to distinguish among products, the banks often decide which funds to sell based on relationships with fund companies. "That's the challenging bit, getting [the banks'] attention," Mr. Leckie says.
Getting the necessary approvals to sell funds in China can prove daunting. The China Securities Regulatory Commission must approve the establishment of any fund company as well as the launch of its first product. The approvals can take two to three years.
Funds have a limited pool of publicly traded Chinese companies in which to invest. About 1,300 Chinese companies are traded on China's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, but only a fraction are transparent and profitable enough to attract fund managers' interest.
迅猛发展难掩中国基金业种种问题
在经历了数年的缓步增长之后，中国的基金管理行业一下子迅猛发展起来，每隔一周便有新的基金推出，但行业的快速发展也暴露出自身存在的一些问题。
中国新兴的基金行业存在著不少问题，例如，基金公司为争夺有限的基金分销渠道展开了激烈的竞争，越来越多的基金经理都去投资于中国股市为数不多值得投资的上市公司，基金客户的投资操作普遍属于短线行为，另外，宏观方面也存在中国经济放缓的风险。对于一些刚刚涉足中国市场的外资基金公司来说，这种形势会令他们感到不安，他们甚至会发现在中国市场上赚钱可能是黄粱一梦。
汇丰投资管理（香港）有限公司(HSBC Asset Management)驻香港的首席执行长布莱尔?皮克莱尔(Blair Pickerell)表示，中国基金行业就像消费品行业一样，需求增长非常迅速，但供给的增速更快。中国的基金市场目前是全球竞争最为激烈残酷、盈利最低的市场之一。皮克莱尔被普遍看作是基金行业的先驱者，他在3年多以前管理怡富资产管理公司(Jardine Fleming Asset Management)时曾试图收购一家中国基金公司，但以失败而告终。他表示，外资基金公司可能会发现，投资中国基金行业是一个长期而艰苦的过程。
基金管理行业的重要性在于，它能否健康发展关系到中国完善股市发展以及整顿金融体系的努力能否取得成功。而金融体系在中国经济增长过程中扮演著重要角色。随著为普通居民管理资产的基金公司越来越多地出现，为了吸引基金管理公司的投资，养老基金、保险公司以及中国上市企业必须加大透明度和盈利能力。基金管理公司可以为中国政府整治坏帐缠身的银行体系贡献一臂之力，原因在于银行业可以从销售共同基金中收取费用，这将为银行业提供一个低风险、有利可图的收入来源。
基金管理行业是最早有限制地允许外资持股并允许其同中国公司组建合资企业的金融行业之一。基金管理行业的发展或许会成为保险、银行、股票经纪等其他金融行业最终发展方向的一个样本。去年12月底时，中国批准外资企业可以把在合资基金公司中的持股比例从原先的33%提升至49%。
诞生六年来，中国基金管理行业现已吸收了约250亿美元的资金，其中大部分资产是在过去18个月里吸收的。现有30多家国内基金公司以及16家合资基金公司争相向中国居民推销他们的产品。据悉，中国居民存款现已达到1.3万亿美元左右。共35家基金管理公司先后推出了75只开放式基金和54只封闭式基金。
越来越多的外资企业希望打入中国市场。欧洲、加拿大、以及美国的基金公司都已提出申请。Prumerica Financial、信安金融(Principal Financial Group Inc., PFG)、美国国际集团(AIG)、澳大利亚首域投资有限公司(First State Investments)等公司都在等待中国监管部门的审批。
有初步迹象显示，在华开展业务的基金公司前后表现不一。中国的散户投资者普遍青睐于买卖新上市的股票，以便能够快速锁定利润。他们难以接受长线投资和成本平均投资的理念。去年，德国的德盛安联资产管理(Allianz Dresdner Asset Management)、比利时富通基金管理公司(Fortis Investment Management)、荷兰国际集团投资管理公司(ING Investment Management)在华的合资基金管理公司在刚推出新基金时都吸引了超过4亿美元的资金。然而，截至去年12月底，虽然仅仅时隔几个月，他们旗下的基金都已经有不同程度的亏损，亏损幅度在24%-44%之间。
上投摩根富林明基金管理有限公司(China International Fund Management Co.)的总经理王鸿嫔(Mandy Wang)感叹说，“我们对长线投资的理解是不低于5年，但我们的客户，甚至公司的员工以及经纪公司都认为长线投资也就是一年甚至半年的事。这确实是一个分歧。“上投摩根富林明基金管理有限公司是由上海国际信托投资有限公司(Shanghai International Trust & Investment Co.)与摩根富林明资产管理(英国)有限公司(JP Morgan Fleming Asset Management (UK) Limited)发起设立的合资基金管理公司，该公司准备推出第一只股票基金的申请已于本月获得中国监管部门的批准。
中国经济增长放缓以及潜在的加息风险可能会加剧投资者一遇风吹草动就赎回投资的势头。Stirling Finance Ltd.的行业咨询主管斯图尔特?莱基(Stuart Leckie)表示，还有一些投资者可能会收回投资并把它们转为银行存款享受利率升高的好处，而不是去购买陌生的新产品；这将导致推出新基金的步伐明显放缓。
另一个主要问题在于分销渠道。四大国有商业银行遍布在各地的分支机构是中国基金业的主要分销渠道。但由于产品区别不大，因此银行通常根据和基金公司的关系来决定销售哪只基金。莱基称，能够吸引银行的注意力可不是件容易的事。
汇丰投资管理公司的皮克莱尔称，基金公司可以利用经纪公司来帮助他们销售基金，但由此也会引发其他问题。在中国、台湾等新兴市场上，一些经纪公司把获得基金公司的股票经纪业务作为帮助基金公司销售产品的前提条件。皮克莱尔称，基金公司有时在压力之下需要频繁地买卖股票，以此来回报经纪公司，但这会影响到基金的业绩，加重基金投资者的成本。
在中国销售基金的申请要想获得批准也不是件容易的事。中国证券监督管理委员会(China Securities Regulatory Commission)规定，基金公司设立以及首次推出产品的申请必须同时送交审理。业内管理人士称，获得这两个批准可能要等上2到3年的时间；基金公司为了证明其信誉度，在正式运作之前通常先要在房租、电脑系统、支付员工薪金方面投入数百万美元。莱基称，申请在华设立基金公司是个冗长的过程。
在成立并投入运营之后，基金公司接下来就会发现中国股市上值得投资的公司屈指可数。在上海和深圳两地的股票交易市场上约有1,300家上市公司，但只有少部分经营透明的盈利企业值得投资。中国监管部门提出了今后10年内准备再让1,000家企业上市的目标，这意味著每周就有2家公司上市。莱基称，股市的急剧扩张可能会严重阻碍基金行业的发展。
