Sorry, You're Only Getting A 3.5% Raise Again
If you thought an improving economy was going to get you a bigger raise this year, guess again.
U.S. businesses are, on average, increasing their salary budgets 3.5% for 2004, the same level as last year's forecast, according to a new survey from the Conference Board, a private research group.
If the 2004 gain comes to pass, it would mark the second time in 11 years that salaries advanced at less than the 4% mark. Worse, the expected salary gains for 2005 are also expected to come in below 4%, the report said.
The good news, the group said, is that salaried employees will nonetheless make some headway, as inflation is likely to come in under the rate of salary gains.
The need to keep costs in check is the driving force behind the meager salary gains. "Although U.S. business continues to rebound from the economic downturn, companies are still paying close attention to cost control," said Charles Peck, who headed the salary survey for the Conference Board.
The 3.5% average salary-budget increase for the current year extends across the employment spectrum, from executives on down. The predicted gains were fairly consistent in various lines of business, too, with insurance-industry workers doing a little bit better than the overall average, and utility-sector workers doing the worst on a relative basis.
STUMPED?
If you've got a consumer question -- about anything from health insurance to car financing to travel -- write to
personaljournal@wsj.comThat the salary gains will help workers get ahead is based on the forecast that inflation for 2004 will remain relatively tame. The Conference Board said it's projecting a 2.2% increase in inflation for 2004, though it expects to see a 2.7% increase next year, suggesting a smaller real advance in salary for 2005. In May, overall inflation, versus a year ago, stood at 3.1%.
The meager salary gains expected for the current and coming year come at a time when the economy is charging ahead. While output growth has for some time been quite solid, recent months have also witnessed a marked improvement in hiring. Yet as those jobs have piled up, there has been some controversy over both their quality and whether they have the pay scale of those lost during the recession.
Companies have been able to afford extra hiring, along with the salary gains, by way of much improved profit levels. The profits have been driven in part by strong gains in productivity, which have aided companies during a period where the ability to raise prices has been considerably constrained. But as the Conference Board data show, the lack of pricing power cuts both ways, and is a clear impediment to better pay.
Many economists expect consumer spending will slow down a bit in the coming months, with the Federal Reserve set to embark on a rate-increase cycle and no fresh fiscal stimulus on the horizon, leading to a moderate slowing in overall growth. But at the same time, recent data on personal income for the entire nation show improvement. In April, personal income rose 0.6%, the best gain in two years.
Ken Mayland, chief economist with ClearView Economics in Pepper Pike, Ohio, said at the time of that report's release that the income improvement was a clear result of better hiring. "Thank goodness for the resumption of job growth," he told clients. "People want to know where the next leg of consumer-spending increases will come from. It will come from the income generated from new jobs. And this could go on for years."
对不起，今年还是只加薪3.5%
如果你以为经济状况的不断改善能让你今年的加薪幅度大一点的话，你还是再想想吧。
世界大企业联合会(Conference Board)新近的一次调查结果显示，美国企业2004年的平均加薪幅度是3.5%，与去年预期的水平相当。
如果2004年就这么过去的话，那将是11年来第二次年度加薪幅度在4%以下。更糟的是，大企业联合会的调查报告指出，2005年的薪资涨幅预计仍会低于4%。
但好消息是，由于通货膨胀水平有望被控制在薪资涨幅水平以下，工薪一族总算多少会有些收获。
企业控制成本的需要是薪资涨幅不大的主要动因。负责此次世界大企业联合会薪资调查的查尔斯?派克(Charles Peck)说，尽管美国企业已经逐渐从衰退中复苏，但它们还是非常注重成本控制。
从管理人员到普通雇员，本年度3.5%的薪资预算增幅是一个普遍水平，不同行业的预期增幅大体也非常接近，保险业雇员的薪水涨幅略高于平均水平，而公用事业行业雇员的工资增长幅度相对而言是最低的。
之所以说这么小的薪水涨幅仍会让工薪一族有所收获是基于2004年通货膨胀有望保持相对温和水平的预期。世界大企业联合会称，2004年通货膨胀水平预计会增长2.2%。不过它同时也预计下一年通胀水平涨幅会增至2.7%，意味著2005年的实际薪资增幅会有所缩小。今年5月，美国总体通货膨胀水平较去年同期上升了3.1%。
可伶的今明两年薪资预期增幅与当前良好的经济发展势头似乎不甚合拍。但我们需要知道的是，虽然一段时间来总体经济产值一直在稳步增长，可最近几个月企业招聘速度也已显著加快。随著新招入的员工越来越多，他们的素质水平以及他们是否应达到衰退时期失去工作的那些人的薪资标准眼下已成为人们议论的话题。
企业通常需要大大提高利润水平方能在给雇员加薪的同时额外招聘员工。而利润的提高在一定程度上有赖于生产力的强劲增长，也正是由于美国生产力在经济低迷时期势头不减，才使得企业在无力提高产品价格的情况下得以维持生计。但是，恰如世界大企业联合会的调查数据所显示，定价能力的缺乏既会影响到利润水平也会影响到生产力的提高，因而也是阻碍薪资水平增长的一个显著因素。
许多经济学家预计，随著联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)即将开始一轮加息周期，加之眼下尚看不到任何新的财政刺激手段，因此未来几个月消费者支出水平可能会有所放缓，并导致总体经济增长速度略有减弱。但与此同时，最近的全国总体数据却显示个人收入有所改善。4月份个人收入水平增长了0.6%，创两年来的最高增幅。
俄亥俄州独立经济研究机构ClearView Economics的首席经济学家肯?梅兰德(Ken Mayland)在世界大企业联合会的这一调查报告发布之际表示，个人收入的增长显然是就业改善的结果。他对他的客户说：“谢天谢地，就业率又开始出现增长。人们可能会问，推动下一次消费者支出增长的动因将是什么。那将是新增就业机会所产生的收入，而且这将持续数年之久。”
