Indian Oil Firms Scour Globe For Energy as Demand Surges
BOMBAY, India -- As high oil prices and fears of terrorism in Saudi Arabia and Iraq underscore India's dependence on Middle Eastern oil supplies, Indian oil companies are seeking to diversify geographically like never before, spending billions of dollars in a search for new energy sources to power the subcontinent's growth.
State-owned companies like Oil & Natural Gas Corp. and Indian Oil Corp. have for the first time been investing in exploration projects from Russia to Angola -- often bumping into drillers for the world's only other billion-person economy, China. Indian companies are hoping to make their country and themselves less exposed to volatile open-market prices.
ASIA'S THIRST FOR OIL
China and India are developing an addiction to oil. As the world's two most populous nations industrialize, their demand for oil is putting them on a collision course with another big consumer: the U.S. See an interactive graphic on the outlook for world-wide oil supply and prices.
A planned privatization of India's big oil companies has been shelved by the new government. But given the Indian economy's strong demand, the companies' buying binges will likely continue. India is already the world's seventh-largest consumer of oil. As strong industrial growth and increasing numbers of Indians on the roads bolster demand, the country's appetite for oil could more than double in the next 15 years, the U.S. Department of Energy estimates.
As India's demand grows, so will its dependence on imports -- and its influence on the global supply-and-demand balance. India already imports about 70% of its oil. The Paris-based International Energy Agency, which monitors oil consumption trends, predicts that in 25 years, India will have to import more than 90% of its crude.
"The entire country is looking the world over for oil, wherever assets are available," says P. Sugavanam, director of finance at Indian Oil in New Delhi. "We need options."
The move echoes an effort by China in recent years to secure oil sources around the world. China's state oil companies, such as China National Petroleum Corp. and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., have been investing billions of dollars in exploration projects in Kazakhstan, Sudan, Venezuela and elsewhere. It isn't clear yet whether the Chinese investments are raising the price of such assets, says Jeffrey Logan, China program manager for the International Energy Agency in Paris. But, he adds, "the money they are throwing out is very big. ... They can match the bids anywhere."
Those ventures have been spurred by China's voracious appetite for oil; China's crude-oil imports surged more than 30% last year, and its demand has helped to roil oil markets. India's demand is still growing too slowly to affect international oil prices in the same way. But that should change, says R.K. Batra, distinguished fellow at the Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi. "Over the long run, growth in [India] will be among the highest of any in the world so definitely this market is going to play a stronger role," he says.
India's demand for oil grew by about 3.5% in the year ended March 31, relatively small compared with the 8% economic growth that India logged during that period. One reason for this disconnect is that the economy relies more on coal to generate power than on oil. However, as more Indians buy cars and motorcycles, demand for oil is expected to increase annually almost 5% on average for the next 25 years.
As demand picks up, the Indian government doesn't want its oil companies caught unprepared. Although Indian oil companies until recently were discouraged from spending much abroad, the government lately has been urging them to find new sources outside the Middle East. India bought about 65% of its oil imports from the Gulf last year, compared with 60% for China and 20% for the U.S.
"India's overseas expansion started [around 2000] and has intensified recently," says Dagmar Graczyk, South Asia analyst for the IEA in Paris. "It is striking because Indian companies had been requested to stay inside the country for so long."
The international-exploration arm of Oil & Natural Gas, ONGC Videsh Ltd., has led the way. It made the biggest foreign investment ever for an Indian company when it invested $1.7 billion in the Sakhalin oil fields of Russia in 2001. The following year it bought a 25% stake in Sudan's Greater Nile Oil project from Canada's Talisman Energy Inc. for about $750 million. Deals this year include agreeing to pay more than $600 million to buy a 50% stake in an offshore oil field in Angola from Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and buying a stake in two more exploration blocks in Sudan for $115 million from an Austrian oil-and-gas company. The company says it plans to spend another $1.7 billion this fiscal year, which ends March 31, 2005.
Indian Oil, the country's largest refiner, is also expanding abroad. It wants an extra 15 million metric tons through equity by 2010 and wants to buy an oil-exploration company this year. Other oil companies, including Hindustan Petroleum Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp., say they are also looking for exploration opportunities abroad. Petrochemical company Reliance Industries Ltd. owns a stake in a field in Yemen that struck oil last year.
While some are concerned that Indian companies are buying into risky international projects in places that may end up being less stable than the Middle East, analysts say India is a latecomer to the international exploration game and has little choice if it wants to diversify.
India and China "are left to explore in areas where there isn't as much competition among the big oil players," says Mr. Logan of the IEA.
印度公司海外探油
由于油价高企及沙特阿拉伯和伊拉克发生的恐怖活动令人倍感担忧，印度对中东石油供应的依赖性暗藏的隐患也日益凸显，有鉴于此，印度石油公司不惜斥资数十亿美元，在以前不曾涉足的地域著手寻找新的石油资源，以保障这个南亚次大陆国家的经济增长。
Oil and Natural Gas及Indian Oil等印度国有企业已开始投资石油勘探项目。这些项目从俄罗斯到安哥拉分布广泛，而且它们常常就紧靠著世界仅有的另一个人口超过十亿的大国──中国投资的钻井。
印度公司希望，他们的努力能让国家和他们自己受国际市场油价波动的冲击更小些。
印度新政府上台后，大型国有石油公司的私有化计划被暂时搁置了。但在印度经济对能源的强劲需求推动下，这些公司投资国外项目的热情可能会持续下去。
印度目前是全球第七大石油消费国，每天要消耗200多万桶。据美国能源情报署(EIA)预计，随著经济的强劲增长和车辆的增加，在未来15年时间里，该国的石油需求有可能增长一倍以上。
在印度石油需求增长的同时，它对进口能源的依赖和对全球供需平衡的影响也日渐增强。印度目前有70%的石油来自进口。位于新德里的Indian Oil的财务主管P.Sugavanam说，整个国家正在满全世界寻找任何有可能提供石油供应的地方；印度要为原油供应寻找多种渠道。
截至今年3月31日的一年间，印度的石油需求增长了大约3.5%。不过，与该国同期国内生产总值8%的增幅相比，石油需求的增长速度相对滞后。
出现这种不同步现象的主要原因之一是，印度火电的比重更大些。据能源分析师提供的数据，火力发电占全国总发电量的一半以上。不过，随著越来越多的印度人购买汽车和摩托车，预计未来25年中，印度石油需求将以年均5%的幅度增长。
在全球范围内比较，上述增幅仅次于中国。新加坡石油天然气业咨询公司FACTS Inc.高级研究员哈桑?瓦希迪(Hassaan Vahidy)说，印度是一个大市场，潜力也很大。
当然，印度目前的石油需求还达不到中国的水平，中国去年的石油进口劲增了30%以上。但是印度政府希望，随著需求日渐上升，石油公司有必要未雨绸缪，以免措手不及。
政府一直鼓励他们在中东以外的其他地区寻找新的资源，而中国的企业已经这么做了，比如中国石油(China National Petroleum)和中国石化(China Petroleum & Chemical，简称Sinopec)等。去年，印度65%的进口石油来自海湾地区。
在印度各家石油公司中，Oil and Natural Gas勘探业务子公司ONGC Videsh扮演著开路先锋的角色。早在2001年，该公司就在俄罗斯的萨哈林(Sakhalin)油田投资了17亿美元，这是目前为止印度公司最大的一笔海外投资。
紧接著第二年，该公司又斥资7.5亿美元从加拿大Talisman Energy手中购买了苏丹Greater Nile Oil项目25%的股份。今年，它又同意出资6亿多美元购买皇家壳牌石油公司(Royal Dutch/Shell Group.)在安哥拉的一处海上油田50%的股份。
上个月，该公司在苏丹以1.15亿美元的价格从一家奥地利油气公司那里购买了两处勘探地块的股份。ONGC Videsh本月宣布，计划在截至2005年3月31日的财政年度中，再投资17亿美元。这一投资额较上一财政年度增长了一倍以上。该公司预计，到2010年，其国外项目投资所获得的原油供给将达到每年2,000万桶，而目前仅为400万桶左右。
印度最大的石油加工企业Indian Oil也在向海外拓展。它希望到2010年，其海外投资获得的原油供给量能再增加1,500万桶。该公司计划今年收购一家石油勘探公司。
一些人担心，印度企业海外投资所处地区的稳定性甚至还不如中东地区，但分析师们认为，在国际石油勘探竞赛中，印度是个后来者；如果想拥有多样化的石油供应来源，舍此它也别无选择。
