Dalian overtakes CBOT on soya
Like most things to do with soybeans in China, the Dalian Commodity Exchange is doing record business.
The number of contracts and the volumes of trades in the oil seeds more than quadrupled in the three years to 2003, and have continued to grow rapidly this year.
The breakneck increase in demand in China for soybeans has risen in line with the country's economic growth and, in turn, the increase in the quantity and quality of food consumption.
China is now the world's largest agricultural commodity futures market and Dalian is its biggest exchange, with its volume of soybean contracts having overtaken the Chicago Board of Trade.
With a surge in local production and, more significantly, imports and crushing capacity, China's soybean companies have had to use the futures market in ever greater numbers to hedge risks, the exchange said.
"China's soybean processors and traders have become increasingly dependent upon the international market - hence a greater need to avoid risks, which has led to a jump in soybean transactions," the exchange said, in written answers to a list of questions.
But Dalian's growth is much more than a reflection of the need for hedging, said local and foreign traders. The exchange itself has been vigorously promoting its services, spending several million dollars on seminars and training courses over the last three years.
It has taken advantage of a central government decision in 2000 to ease slightly the tight rein it keeps on the commodity futures markets.
China has three exchanges - Dalian, on the north coast, which trades soybeans and soybean meals, Zhengzhou, in central China (wheat), and Shanghai (rubber, copper and aluminium.)
Dalian is by far the largest, with its contracts accounting for just over 60 per cent of the turnover in the three markets, according to figures supplied by the exchange.
By the end of 2003, Dalian had 197 members. Brokerages need a minimum paid-up capital of Rmb30m ($3.6m) for a seat, and non-brokerages Rmb5m.
The other drivers of growth are speculators, although the exchange has a strong interest in ensuring they do not get out of hand. The Beijing government has long been suspicious of futures markets and has tightly regulated them after a number of scandals in the 1990s.
China is particularly prone to speculative manias. With growing surplus cash, an illiquid local stock market and few other investment avenues, the commodities exchanges have been vulnerable to the entry of pure gamblers.
Dalian said speculators had been "playing a significant role" in the market, but in doing so, they bore "the risk of price changes and also increased market liquidity".
Executives at foreign commodities houses said trading had been especially furious in recent weeks as local crushing houses, which are long on soybeans, had tried to force prices up.
One trader at the exchange, who declined to be named, admitted the market had been more speculative this year, but said it was "impossible for any institution or political group to manipulate prices in the long run".
"Furthermore, the [Chicago Board of Trade] bears much stronger speculation than our market," he added.
In some respects, the frantic trading of recent months is a natural reaction to the upheaval in the market overall.
Four bulk carriers have been turned away from Chinese ports by customs in the last six weeks, ostensibly because of fungicide in their cargoes, but in truth, say the foreign executives, because crushers do not want to pay the high prices they have contracted for them.
Dalian is working hard to gain acceptance and respect in the global commodities community. It is cultivating a relationship with the CBOT and signed an agreement late last year for training and information sharing. Their prices, the exchange points out, already correlate strongly with those of the CBOT.
大连大豆交易超过芝加哥
与中国多数与大豆有关的事情一样，大连商品交易所的业务也在高创纪录。
在截至2003年的三年内，油籽合约的数量和交易量增至原来的四倍以上，而且今年仍在继续快速增长。
中国对大豆需求势如破竹的增长速度，与中国的经济增长速度相一致，并转而与食品消费的数量和质量的增长速度相一致。
目前，中国已是世界上最大的大宗农业商品期货市场，而大连商交所是中国最大的商品交易所，其大豆合约交易量已超过了芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)。
大连商交所表示，随着本地产量的大幅上升，以及更为显著的进口与压榨产能的飙升，中国的大豆公司已不得不比以往更频繁地运用期货市场来对冲风险。
大连商交所在对一系列问题的书面回答中写道，中国的大豆加工商和贸易商越来越依赖国际市场，因此更有必要规避风险，这已导致大豆交易猛增。
但国内外交易商表示，大连商交所的增长远远不光是反映了对冲风险的需求。交易所本身一直在大力宣传其服务，在过去三年中，花了数百万美元举办研讨会和培训班。
中央政府在2000年决定略微放松对商品期货市场的严格管制，大连商交所充分利用了这一决定。
中国有三家商品交易所：大连商交所，位于北部沿海地区，交易品种为大豆、豆粕；郑州商品交易所，位于华中地区，交易品种为小麦；上海期货交易所，交易品种为橡胶、铜和铝。
根据大连商交所提供的数字，迄今该交易所绝对是三家交易所中最大的一家，其合约交易量在三个市场总交易量中刚好超过60%。
到2003年年底，大连商交所拥有197家会员。经纪会员需支付最低3000万元人民币(合360万美元)才能获得一个席位，而非经纪会员需支付500万元人民币。
交易量增长的另一些推动力来自投机者，但交易所有意确保对这些投机者不致失控。中国政府长期以来对期货市场持怀疑态度，自上世纪90年代期货市场爆发大量丑闻之后，政府一直对该市场实施严格管制。
中国特别容易兴起投机狂热。由于剩余现金越来越多，国内股市流动性不足，加之缺乏其它投资渠道，因此商品期货交易所很容易因纯粹投机客的涌入而遭到攻击。
大连交易所表示，投机者在这个市场上一直“扮演着相当重要的角色”，但在这么做的同时，它们既承担了“价格波动的风险，也提高了市场流动性”。
国外商品经纪公司的经理们表示，由于做多大豆的国内压榨厂试图推高大豆价格，因此最近几周的交易特别火爆。
该交易所一位不愿透露姓名的交易员承认，今年的市场投机性更强。但他说，“从长期来看，任何机构或政治机构要操纵价格都是不可能的。”
“而且，(芝加哥期交所)的投机行为比我们的市场厉害得多，”他补充道。
从某些方面来看，最近几个月的疯狂交易是对整个市场大起大落的自然反应。
上述外国公司管理人士指出，在过去六周内，已有四艘散货船被海关拦在中国港口之外，表面上是因为它们的货物中含有杀真菌剂，但实际上是压榨厂不希望支付与这些货主所订立合约的高价。
大连商交所正在努力，以求得到全球大宗商品交易界的接受和尊重。它正与芝加哥期交所建立关系，并于去年年末签署了一项培训和信息共享协议。大连商交所指出，它们的价格已与芝加哥期交所的价格有很强的联动性。
