helping Emerging economies benefit from world trade
Recent indicators point to a rebound of the world economy, largely due to the strength of the US recovery. Job creation is on the rise in the US, as witnessed in three consecutive months of increases; Japan appears to be emerging from recession and overall, the world's economic prospects look better than they did a few months ago.
What is less widely publicised, however, is the contribution of developing countries, particularly those classified as emerging economies, to this reinvigoration of global economic activity. Few people probably know, for instance, that sales to the developing world currently account for nearly half of all US exports and for one third of those of the European Union. How many know that China's massive import demand is a big reason for the new dynamism of the Japanese economy? A new international economic configuration is emerging in which developing countries - particularly those with high rates of economic growth - are becoming dynamos of economic activity. The world as a whole stands to gain from this major structural evolution.
Yet not only does this new, healthy facet of interdependence tend to be neglected, but more worryingly, it is looked upon with apprehension and even with hostility by some - on the grounds that it entails relocation of industrial activity and services jobs overseas, including via outsourcing. While this structural evolution may lead to job losses in advanced countries, it should be recognised that these short-term costs will ultimately be trumped by long-term gains via cheaper services being made available to consumers in both advanced and developing countries and, as we have begun to see, by increasing demand among developing countries for goods and services originating in the developed world. It is therefore in the interests of the international community to facilitate the emergence and consolidation of this new economic configuration.
This entails action on two fronts. First, market access should be improved for products from developing countries. This can be secured both via multilateral trade negotiations and regional and bilateral trade agreements. Second, we should ensure that developing countries can strengthen their supply capacity and diversify away from the supply of primary commodities into the production of goods and services with dynamic demand. The global economic rebound provides the ideal conditions on both fronts: it is easier for advanced countries to make trade concessions and provide support when their economies are growing than when they are trapped in economic lethargy.
The 11th session of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, taking place this week in Brazil, is the main UN ministerial meeting on development issues this year and will address the twin objectives outlined above.
In addition, the meeting will break new ground by trying to identify the kinds of national policies required to translate increased opportunities for trade in developing countries into development gains and poverty reduction. This link has been viewed by some as virtually automatic. However, the experience of numerous developing countries has shown that trade alone is no guarantee for development. Latin America's impressive trade performance, for example, has failed to offset the impact of six years of negative per capita growth and there are 20m more poor people today in the region than in 1997.
The conference will consider in detail the kinds of policies required to ensure that trade becomes a force for poverty reduction. This means exploring ways to optimise the impact of foreign direct investment and of technology transfer on the economic development of these countries. It means ensuring compliance with commitments made by their developed partners for the provision of official development assistance and debt relief measures. And it means identifying the essential features of successful domestic development strategies.
This meeting can be used to help restore confidence in the potential of international trade to help economic development by addressing the concerns of developing countries in this domain. Market access and supply capacity must be developed in tandem so as to secure real development gains for poor countries - particularly the least developed among them. This is the sole means of ensuring a flourishing trading system and an international environment which is sustainable in the long run. The writer is secretary-general of Unctad
帮助新兴经济从贸易中获益
最近一些指标表明世界经济出现反弹，这在很大程度上是由于美国经济复苏强劲。美国的就业创造正在上升，连续三个月的增长就是证明；日本似乎正从衰退中摆脱出来，而总体上说，全球经济的前景看上去比几个月前要好。
然而，有关发展中国家对此次全球经济活动复兴的贡献报道得比较少，尤其是那些被归为新兴经济体的发展中国家。例如，可能几乎没有人知道，美国全部出口中近一半是销往发展中国家，而欧盟全部出口中三分之一是销往发展中世界。有多少人知道，中国庞大的进口需求是日本经济新动力的关键原因？一种新的世界经济格局正在形成。在这个格局中，发展中国家，尤其是经济增长率较高的国家，正成为经济活动的动力。整个世界都从这个重大的结构性演变中获益。
可是，不仅是这种相互依存关系新型、健康的一面被忽视，而且更令人担忧的是，一些人恐惧地、甚至是敌意地看待此事。他们的理由是，这引起工业活动和服务业工作岗位转移到海外，包括通过外包的方式。虽然这种结构性演变可能导致发达国家的工作岗位流失，但应该看到，长期好处最终将弥补这些短期成本，因为发达国家和发展中国家都可获得更廉价的服务，而且正如我们已开始看到的，发展中国家对来自发达国家的商品和服务的需求日益增加。因此，促进这个新经济格局的形成并巩固它符合国际社会的利益。
这需要采取两方面的行动。首先，应改善来自发展中国家产品的市场准入。这可以通过多边贸易谈判，以及地区及双边贸易协议加以确保；其次，我们应当确保发展中国家能增强它们的供应能力，并能做到供应多元化，从供应初级大宗商品进一步达到生产多样化商品和服务。全球经济复苏在两方面提供了理想的条件：就发达国家而言，要对发展中国家做出贸易让步并提供支持，在经济增长时要比经济陷入萧条时容易些。
第11届联合国贸易发展大会本周在巴西举行，这是今年联合国就发展问题举行的一次重要的部长级会议，会上将提出上面概述的两个目标。
此外，本次会议还将努力确定需要采取哪些类型的国家性政策，才能将发展中国家日益增多的贸易机会转化为发展益处和减贫成果，从而开辟新领域。有人一直认为，这种贸易与发展之间的联系几乎是必然的。但许多发展中国家的经验证明，单凭贸易并不能确保发展。例如，拉美国家的贸易表现令人印象深刻，但未能抵消6年人均负增长带来的冲击。今天，那里的贫困人口比1997年多了2000万。
大会将详细考虑确保贸易成为减贫动力所需采取的各种政策。这意味着将探究方法，以充分利用外国直接投资及技术转让对这些穷国的经济发展造成的影响。这意味着确保发达国家履行承诺，为穷国伙伴提供官方发展援助并实施减免债务措施。同时，这也意味着确认成功的国内发展战略有哪些基本特点。
可以利用这次会议，通过解决发展中国家担忧的这个领域的问题，从而帮助人们恢复信心，相信国际贸易有帮助经济发展的潜力。必须协力发展市场准入和供应能力，以确保贫穷国家（尤其是其中的最不发达国家）获得真正的发展益处。这是确保一个欣欣向荣的贸易体系、一个可长期持续的国际环境的唯一途径。
