Another renaissance in Florence?
The post-Tom-and-Dom era is proving unexpectedly stressful for Serge Weinberg. For the chief executive of Pinault Printemps Redoute, the French conglomerate that has just completed its �7.2bn ($8.8bn) acquisition of Gucci, it is the moment of truth. In just under three weeks' time, at Gucci's men's wear show in Milan, the first major collection produced by the Florentine luxury goods group since the departure of Tom Ford, creative director, and Domenico De Sole, chief executive, will hit the catwalk.
Mr Weinberg's career, which, like those of so many other high-flyers in France, started at the Ecole Nationale d'Administration, has ended up hanging on the work of three untested designers. John Ray, the new creative director of Gucci men's wear, will be the first of the troika that has assumed the Ford mantle to face the critics. He will be followed by Stefano Pilati, creative director of Yves Saint Laurent in July, and then Alessandra Facchinetti, creative director of Gucci's women's wear, in September.
PPR's hubris in dashing into a sector so removed from its own world of timber trading, cheap furniture, bookselling, consumer credit and African car dealerships has stretched credulity. Its protracted takeover of Gucci was only completed in April when it bought out minority shareholders at a price it had agreed, with uncannily bad timing, on the eve of the September 11 2001 terrorist attacks. The deal, which forced PPR into a sweeping sell-off of businesses, has not impressed investors.
Goldman Sachs, for example, estimates that PPR will not beat its cost of capital on the investment in Gucci until 2008. News of the failure to negotiate the renewal of Mr De Sole and Mr Ford's contracts, which expired this spring, further sapped investor confidence and wiped nearly �800m off PPR's market value. Few are rushing to judgment ahead of the shows, but if the Texan designer's successors fail to make their mark with their first collections, Mr Weinberg's own job could soon be on the line.
For a people business, Gucci is losing talent at an alarming rate. A new chief executive has at last been found in Robert Polet, the head of Unilever's ice cream and frozen food division, who starts work on July 1. But Gucci's senior ranks have been decimated. Including Mr De Sole and Mr Ford, no fewer than 12 top directors have left in the past few weeks.
The turmoil is all the more striking in an industry used to regarding Gucci as a role model. "Gucci," say Goldman Sachs analysts, "embodied the transformation and development of the luxury goods industry in the last 10 years." By abandoning the traditional licence-based business model in favour of exclusive networks of owned stores and selected concessions, the De Sole team achieved compound annual sales growth of 30 per cent between 1993-2003 and spawned dozens of imitators.
"The competition is milking the turmoil at Gucci," notes Claire Kent, a luxury goods analyst at Morgan Stanley. "There is no shortage of opportunities as the industry is short of talent and has gone into growth mode again. We expect further defections in the coming months."
Interviewed in his new offices on Avenue Hoche near the Arc de Triomphe, Mr Weinberg says reports of an exodus have been misleading. "People say there has been a wave of resignations. That's wrong. There have been jobs that have been suppressed and people that we have decided not to keep, but very few resignations. People have missed the fact that there is not just a change of management, but a change in the way we are going to operate."
More power is now to be given to the brand managers - notably Giacomo Santucci, chief executive of the Gucci division, and Mark Lee, his counterpart at YSL. "Domenico, even though he was the chief executive, was still seen as the Gucci brand manager," Mr Weinberg says. "Robert's role will not be to manage the Gucci brand, but to create a cohesive industrial group out of a collection of companies and to set the strategies with the chief executives of each brand."
Mr Weinberg hopes to improve the quality of Gucci's earnings. Although Mr Ford added lustre and fashion edge to the Gucci brand, his occasional fallibility made the group's financial performance less predictable than that of classic luxury brands such as Louis Vuitton, Hermes and Cartier. Using unknown designers whose inspiration is more obviously drawn from the brand archives might reduce the brand's cyclicality.
Some analysts are yet to be convinced. "The odds are stacked against the new management team and design structure," argues Ms Kent. "Investors need to bear in mind three things. First, luxury is a highly competitive business where consumers have no brand loyalty. Second, contrary to perception, we believe the Gucci division is tightly run from the cost side. Third, PPR may have disliked Ford's power within the old regime, but swinging to the opposite model is not necessarily the solution."
If Mr Polet has an almost impossible act to follow, the 48-year-old Dutchman is by all accounts making good first impressions. Although he has not yet formally started work, he has already held meetings with some Gucci employees. "He's someone who listens. He seems interested in working with existing people as opposed to drafting in loads of Unilever executives. He's saying all the right things and doesn't seem to be arrogant, unlike some French people," says one insider.
But he will have to move fast to rebuild the senior management. The dozen departing directors were strong ambassadors for the group, guarantors of Gucci's entrepreneurial culture and keepers of its corporate memory. Two of the heaviest hitters Mr Weinberg chose to let go were Brian Blake, a former chief executive of the Gucci brand with 17 years operating experience at the highest levels of the group, and Robert Singer, finance director since Gucci's initial public offering in 1995.
"Serge decided they were both just too close to Domenico," one insider says. "It was a bad decision in my view." Both have found good jobs fast, Mr Blake joining Burberry as chief operating officer, and Mr Singer, 52, filling the same slot at US retailer Abercrombie & Fitch.
Mr Weinberg says that other jobs at the group level ceased to have substance once Gucci was no longer an independent company. Cedric Magnelia has therefore resigned as director of investor relations, as have Tomaso Galli, director of corporate communications and Lisa Schiek, director of communications. Alan Tuttle, general counsel, and Renato Ricci, director of human resources, will also step down, but retain consulting contracts, Mr Weinberg says.
But retaining talent is clearly a problem too. Some stars have jumped ship. Prada, a fortnight ago, poached Gian Giacomo Ferraris, Gucci's worldwide director of apparel, to run Jil Sander, the German fashion group. His departure followed the resignation of Toshiaki Tashiro, the president of Gucci Japan credited with transforming operations in that vital luxury market into the motor of the group's sales and profits. Japan accounted for almost 30 per cent of the main Gucci division's �1.5bn revenues in 2003.
Even if the forthcoming collections are a success, Mr Weinberg has his work cut out first in stabilising Gucci and then in justifying his massive financial investment in luxury. Many suspect he will find it hard to let go when Mr Polet arrives and has dreams of becoming the next Mr De Sole himself.
"That's absurd, really absurd," he says. "Robert is going to be a chief executive with a very large degree of autonomy. I really don't want to intervene in the daily life of the Gucci group."
古奇的第二次复兴?
巴黎春天(Pinault Printemps Redoute) 首席执行官瑟奇?文伯格(Serge Weinberg)发现，离开迪梭(Domenico De Sole)和福特(Tom Ford)的日子，竟然会有意想不到的巨大压力，他的关键时刻到了。巴黎春天是一家法国企业集团，新近刚完成对古奇(Gucci)的收购，收购额达72亿欧元（合88亿美元）。再过三个星期，古奇的男式时装展就要在米兰（Milan）粉墨登场了。这是创意总监多明尼科?迪梭(Domenico De Sole)和首席执行官汤姆?福特(Tom Ford)辞职后，这家佛罗伦萨奢侈品集团所举办的第一次大型时装展。
和法国很多雄心壮志的人一样，文伯格的职业生涯是从国立行政学院（Ecole Nationale D’Admininstration）开始的，他最终的成败，却取决于三个没有经过考验的设计师。三位设计师构成了三驾马车阵容：第一位入职的是约翰?瑞（John Ray），他将接替福特，任古奇男装创意总监，面对批评者的审视。随后，伊夫?圣罗兰 (Yves Saint Laurent)创意总监斯特凡诺?皮拉蒂（Stefano Pilati）将于7月加盟。再接下来的是古奇女装创意总监亚历山德拉?法基内蒂（Alessandra Facchinetti）, 将于9月到任。
巴黎春天本来经营木材交易、廉价家具、图书销售、消费信贷和非洲汽车经纪业务，和奢侈品业风马牛不相及，却冒然进入，此举让外界颇生疑虑。收购古奇的过程拖了很久。2001年9月10日，巴黎春天和古奇商定了收购价格，时机十分不巧，次日即发生9.11恐怖袭击。今年4月，巴黎春天最终按当日商定价格购进了少数股东的股份，至此收购才全部完成。该交易迫使巴黎春天售出旗下大部分企业，但该宗收购并未让投资人感到高兴。
按照高盛（Goldman Sachs）的估计，巴黎春天的投资于古奇的资金成本2008年才能收回。迪梭先生和福特先生今春合同到期，续约谈判未果。消息传出后，投资人信心再次下降，巴黎春天市值损失了8亿欧元。在时装展之前，没有多少人匆忙下结论。不过，德州设计师迪梭的继任者如果不能在首次时装展上一炮打响，不用多久，文伯格本人的饭碗都有可能不保。
奢侈品行业靠的是人。而古奇的人才流失速度惊人。最近好不容易才找到新的首席执行官罗伯特?波莱(Robert Polet)。此人现为联合利华（Unilever）冰淇凌和冻品部负责人，7月1日将到古奇任职。过去几个星期内，古奇出走的高层主管不下12个，包括多明尼科?迪梭和汤姆?福特。
业内同行本来一直把古奇当模范，因此，古奇的混乱局面更显得触目惊心。高盛的分析师表示：“在过去10年来，古奇一直是奢侈品行业的变化发展的化身。”迪梭和他的团队放弃了许可经营的传统业务模式，转入自有专营商店网络，辅以精心选择的特许经营。经此变革，古奇在1993-2003年间，实现了达到30%的复合年销售增长率，并催生了无数效仿者。
“古奇一乱，竞争对手则乘虚而入，”摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）奢侈品业分析师克莱尔?肯特（Claire Kent）说，“奢侈品业有的是机会，现在又进入了增长期，它缺的是人才。我们估计未来几个月还会出问题。”
文伯格先生在凯旋门附近霍克大道（Avenue Hoche）的新办公室接受了采访。他说公司人才大逃亡的传闻不实。“人们总说现在出现了辞职潮。这说法不对。有些职位本身我们要裁减，有的人我们决定不再保留，但是主动辞职的情况却并不多。我们不仅管理层变了，整个运作方式也变了。这个事实外界却没有看到。”
现在，品牌经理的权力增加了，特别是古奇业务首席执行官贾科莫?圣图奇（Giacomo Santucci），还有伊夫?圣罗兰业务首席执行官马克?李（Mark Lee）。“多明尼科虽然是首席执行官，却被看成古奇的品牌经理，”文伯格先生说。“罗伯特的角色并不是管理古奇的品牌，而是要将各个公司整合起来，形成一个紧密的工业集团，并与各品牌经理一起制定战略。”
文伯格先生希望改进古奇的收益质量。福特先生为古奇品牌注入了光彩和时尚，但他也有大意失荆州的时候，导致古奇集团的财务业绩忽上忽下，不像路易维登(Louis Vuitton)、爱玛仕（Hermes）和卡地亚（Cartier）等经典奢侈品品牌那么稳定。设计新人的灵感更多源自品牌传统积累素材，起用他们，会减少品牌的波动。
有些分析师对此不以为然。“新的管理团队和设计结构面临的不利因素太多了。”肯特女士说，“投资人要考虑到三件事。第一，奢侈品业是高度竞争型的产业，消费者缺乏品牌忠诚度。第二，与古奇的说法相反，我们认为古奇业务就是非常靠投入成本来经营的。第三，巴黎春天或许不喜欢福特先生在古奇旧体制下大权独揽，但是走向另一极端不一定就能解决问题。”
波莱先生是荷兰人，今年48岁。他面前的道路或许无比凶险，但他给人的第一印象却非常好。他还没有正式开始工作，就开始和古奇的员工见过多次面。“他善于倾听，似乎愿意和现有的古奇员工共事，而不是从联合利华带一批管理者过来。他说的话都有理有据，为人也不张狂，不像某些法国人，”某内幕人士透露。
但是他必须快马加鞭，赶紧把高层管理团队建立起来。十几个离职的高层主官都是得力的古奇使者，古奇的创业型文化他们一目了然，古奇的经营历史他们也一清二楚。文伯格先生放走的两位最重量级的人物是布赖恩?布莱克（Brian Blake）和罗伯特?辛格（Robert Singer）。布莱克曾担任过古奇品牌的首席执行官，在古奇的高层职位上任职达17年之久。辛格自从古奇1995年上市以来就一直在担任古奇的财务总监。
“瑟奇认定，这两个人都和多明尼科关系太紧密，”某内幕人士说，“照我看，这个决策是错误的。”两个人离开古奇后，很快就找到了新的职位。布莱克先生加盟巴宝莉（Burberry），任首席运营官。52岁的辛格先生则加入阿伯克比龙与菲奇公司（Abercrombie & Fitch），同样任首席运营官。
文伯格先生说，一旦古奇不再是一家独立的企业，集团层面的其它职位就没有存在之必要了。因此，投资关系总监塞德里克?迈格涅利亚（Cedric Magnelia）辞职了。企业沟通总监托马索?加利（Tomaso Galli）辞职了。法律事务总监艾伦?塔特尔（Alan Tuttle）、人力资源总监雷纳托?里奇（Renato Ricci）也将离职，但文伯格先生说，他仍将聘用他们为外部顾问。
不过人才的挽留显然成了问题。明星员工纷纷跳槽。两周前，普拉达 （Prada）挖走了古奇全球服装总监吉安?贾科莫?费拉里（Gian Giacomo Ferraris）, 让其管理德国的时尚产品集团伊尔?桑德化妆品有限公司（Jil Sander）。在他离职后，古奇日本公司总裁田代利昭（音译，Toshiaki Tashiro）也辞职了。日本是奢侈品销售的重镇，田代利昭正是成功改进古奇日本业务的业务的一大功臣。在他的领导下，古奇日本公司成了驱动集团销售和利润增长的强劲动力。2003年日本业务就为古奇带来15亿欧元进帐，占古奇主营业务总额的30%。
即便即将举办的时装展获得成功，文伯格先生也没有多少回旋的余地，他只能把古奇稳定下来，为他在奢侈品业务的巨大财务投资作出比较好的交代。新聘的波莱本人也梦想自己能成为第二个多明尼科?迪梭。很多人怀疑他到任后，文伯格先生能否放手让他发挥。
“荒唐，实在荒唐，”他说，“罗伯特当这个首席执行官，肯定是有很大自主权的。我实在不想参与古奇集团的日常事务。”
