Where the Industry's Future Looks a Lot Like Los Angeles
If you want to see the auto industry's future, this is the place to be. But be warned, the future looks a lot like the past.
Selling cars in China is clearly exhilarating for industry executives. What company leader could fail to be excited about a car market that last year grew by 80% and is expected to "moderate" to around 17% average annual growth from 2003 to 2009, according to estimates by automotive consulting firm CSM Worldwide.
China's car market is also exploding in variety, as car makers race to gain advantage by offering a wider variety of models. BMW is building its 3- and 5-series sedans here. General Motors Corp.'s Cadillac is on its way with Chinese versions newest vehicles like the Cadillac CTS and SRX crossover utility vehicle. Over the next few years, Chinese consumers, who for years had almost no choice in cars to buy and little opportunity to buy them, will get a comparatively rich array of offerings, a few of them home grown. This week's Beijing Motor Show is likely to be a heady time for everyone involved in this boom.
Too bad riding around Shanghai in a car is not so enjoyable. I say riding around because I wasn't allowed to drive during my visit. The closest I got was a visit to the city's Disc Kart go-cart track. The go-cart track is a good proxy for Shanghai's streets. The cars are not too clean, the lanes are not too wide, and just about everyone is going a bit too fast.
Out on the real highways, Shanghai is a nightmare. It's only within the past two years that China's annual passenger car sales (not counting commercial trucks) cracked one million vehicles a year. In the U.S., annual sales run at 16 million to 17 million vehicles a year. But Shanghai is already putting on a convincing impersonation of Los Angeles.
This huge city has spanking new freeways that make a Michigan resident accustomed to the state's fractured pavement weep with envy. Shanghai's newly rich purr down the roads in sleek German luxury sedans. Ferrari last Saturday inaugurated a dealership in Shanghai. Rolls Royce is already here.
CHINA'S CAR WARS
Foreign car makers are finally making inroads in China, ramping up production and racing to meet blistering local demand. See an interactive timeline tracing the expansion.
Extremes of wealth and poverty are stark here, especially when it comes to what people use to get around. Pity the Shanghai entrepreneur who decides to cash in some of his newly gained wealth to own a new Ferrari Scaglietti. Out on the road, chances are he'll wind up stuck in the same slow moving queues as the guy driving a beat-up Volkswagen Santana 2000, China's ubiquitous everyman's car.
Getting from one side of Shanghai to the other can take the better part of an hour, much of that time spent crawling along inhaling the dust and exhaust from the ancient, blue heavy duty trucks that crowd the roads.
Chinese road manners are an acquired taste. When merging, Chinese drivers have their special right-of-way rules. The main one is, "might makes right." If a trucker wants to get into your lane, your choices are let it through, or take your chances. To pass, Chinese drivers honk their horns and charge the gaps in traffic, go kart style. Throw in hundreds of bicyclists, moped riders and pedestrians darting through city intersections, and Shanghai's streets look like a deranged video game.
The Chinese government last week issued the latest version of its "Automotive Industry Development Policy," enumerating a variety of worthy goals, including a demand that new cars in the year 2010 consume 15% less fuel compared to the 2003 new vehicle fleet. The government says it will encourage the development of hybrid gas-electric cars and diesel cars to conserve fuel. More stringent clean air rules are on the way.
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But no one really wants to get in the way of the aspirations of Chinese people to own cars. Communist Party officials, who still run things here despite the capitalist cornucopia in Shanghai's shops, have made it clear in various policy statements and speeches that nurturing the nation's auto industry is a critical part of the strategy to put China at the forefront of industrial nations. Among other moves, the government says it wants to open the door to installment loans for cars, encourage an orderly market for used cars, and has said it will put a stop to local efforts to restrict auto ownership, such as a Shanghai city rule that requires car owners to buy expensive licenses. China's goal, stated in its automotive policy, is to become one of the world's major auto producing countries and "enter the international market in industrial quantities" by 2010. Put another way, if you are asked to bet on which will come first to an American auto dealership, a commercially viable car powered by a fuel cell using some form of hydrogen as fuel, or a gasoline powered car made in China, you might want to put your yuan on the Chinese cars.
Even so, it's probably equally important in the long run that auto makers, Chinese consumers and Chinese regulators come to grips with the potential problems posed by this huge nation's enthusiasm for the automobile. The auto industry has had decades to study the issues of traffic congestion, highway safety and fuel efficiency in America and Europe. It would be a shame to repeat all the old mistakes in the largest nation on earth.
上海－－东方的洛杉矶
如果你想知道汽车行业的未来，那就到上海来。但这里先提醒你，你将要看到的未来更像是历史的重演。
在中国卖汽车显然让那些汽车行业的高管们雀跃不已。但让他们兴奋不起来的是，尽管这个市场去年增长了80%，但预计从2003年到2009年其年平均增长率只有温和的17%，这是汽车行业咨询公司CSM Worldwide做出的预测。
中国汽车市场的多样性也正呈现爆炸式的增长，各个车商都争相推出更多车型增强自己的优势。宝马(BMW)将在中国生产3系列和5系列轿车。通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)的凯迪拉克(Cadillac)也即将推出其最新车型的中国版本，如凯迪拉克CTS和多功能混型车SRX。多年来没有机会买车或者是买车选择很少的中国消费者，今后几年将会发现他们有相对很大的选择余地，有很多车都会在中国本地生产。本周在北京举行的车展可能是各厂商表现自己的大好时机。
在上海乘车可不是什么好享受。之所以说乘车不说驾车是因为我到上海是不能开车的。我最多只是去开了开卡丁车。上海的卡丁车道与上海真实的街道路况很像。卡丁车不怎么干净，车道也不宽，每个人都想著要快一点。
如果到上海的高速公路上驾车，那情形简直要让人做恶梦。在短短地不到两年时间内，中国轿车的年销量（没有包括商用卡车）就突破了百万辆。美国市场轿车的年销量为1,600万至1,700万辆。但尽管如此，上海已经让人觉得很像洛杉矶了。
这座巨大的城市有著非常棒的新高速公路，这让一个早已习惯了美国破旧公路的密歇根州居民感到难过和□慕。上海的新贵们开著德国豪华汽车一溜烟消失在马路的远处。法拉利(Ferrari)上周六刚在上海开设了一家专卖店。劳斯莱斯(Rolls Royce)早已经来到这里。
贫富差距在这里十分鲜明，这尤其体现在人们的出行工具上。不过，我很同情那些用自己刚刚挣的钱买新款法拉利的创业家。当他们开车到路上，会发现自己的名车和一辆破旧的大众(Volkswagen)桑塔纳2000(Santana 2000)一起被堵在路上。后者是中国最常见的车。
开车从上海一头到另一头差不多要一个小时的时间，其中的大部分是被堵在路上，呼吸著烟尘和旧式蓝色大卡车喷出的尾气。
中国司机的驾驶风格都是后天练出来的。要并线的时候，他们有自己一套规则，“谁强硬谁有理”。如果一辆卡车要强行并线，你要么让它并到你前面，要么你就不让它得逞。想超车的时候，中国司机及拼命按喇叭，在车流的空隙间穿来穿去，彷佛超市里人流中的购物车。骑自行车的和走路的都在城市的交叉路口穿行，整个上海的街道如同是一场疯狂的电子游戏。
中国政府上周颁布了最新的《汽车产业发展政策》(Automotive Industry Development Policy)，列出许多发展目标，包括到2010年轿车平均油耗比2003年新款车降低15%以上等。为了节约能源，中国政府称鼓励发展汽油-电力混合式汽车技术和轿车柴油发动机技术。此外，今后还将制定更加严格的空气净化规定。
不过，没有人想阻止中国人的购车热情。执政的中国共产党(Communist Party)多次在政策声明或讲话中清楚的强调，培育国产汽车业是将中国发展成为工业强国的重要组成部分。此外，中国政府还有其他一些措施：对外资放开汽车融资业务，鼓励二手车交易市场的有序发展，并表示将叫停一些地方政府限制汽车拥有的措施，如上海实行高价车牌照政策。中国政府在《汽车产业发展政策》中阐述的政策目标是，在2010年使中国成为世界主要汽车制造国，汽车产品满足国内市场大部分需求并批量进入国际市场。换句话说，如果你要打赌是商用氢燃料电池汽车还是中国造的汽油燃料车率先出现在美国汽车经销商的展厅里，你也许会把宝压在中国汽车上。
对于中国汽车生产商、消费者和监管者来说，与发展汽车工业同等重要的是解决因这股汽车热情所带来的一系列问题。美国和欧洲汽车业内的人士已经花了数十载的时间研究如何解决交通拥堵、保障高速公路安全以及提高能源使用效率的问题。如果中国重蹈这些国家历史的覆辙，这个世界上的最大国家应当为之汗颜。
