China's oil refining capacity unlikely to cope with rising demand - analysts
China may see its oil refining capacity constrained in coming months due to strong domestic demand along with a fast growing economy, with the shortage unlikely to be eased by the end of the year, analysts said.
""The capacity of domestic refiners cannot meet the strong demand for refined oil at home, with the situation further exacerbated by the decline in smuggling this year,"" said Li Hongbin, an analyst with Northeastern Securities in Shanghai.
China has suffered from rampant smuggling of gasoline and diesel in previous years, but higher oil prices in overseas markets have helped stamp out fuel smuggling in the first half this year, Li said.
""The situation will only slightly improve by the end of this year as several domestic refiners will finish their expansion projects,"" said Li, adding that Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (SHA 600688) alone will add 8 mln tons of refining capacity by year-end.
But to cope with the current shortage, some domestic refiners have resorted to importing refined oil.
Nippon Oil Corp of Japan confirmed earlier today that it has signed a nine-month contract with PetroChina Co Ltd (HK 0857) to refine 20,000 barrels a day of crude oil for the Chinese oil concern beginning July.
PetroChina's Beijing-based spokesperson Bi Jianguo declined to comment on the report.
Charles Chang, an analyst with Fitch Ratings, said: ""My first impression on hearing this news is that China is facing constrained refining capacity at home, and I would imagine it has something to do with expected strong demand in the second half.""
""The demand in the country for either crude oil and refined oil will remain strong this year and next year, and we are projecting at least double-digit growth in refined oil consumption in China for these two years,"" Chang added.
China consumed a total of 134 mln tons of refined oil products last year, and is expected to use up between 143 mln and 146 mln tons this year, according to estimates from experts with China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (Sinopec) (SHA 600028; HK 0386; NYSE SNP), the country's largest refiner.
分析师: 中国成品油产能恐难跟上需求增长
分析师指出，随着国内经济的快速增长, 中国炼油能力恐难满足成品油需求增长。预计年底前，成品油供应紧张状况难以缓解，
东北证券一位分析师指出, 国内炼油厂产能难以满足增长的成品油需求, 而成品油走私量下降更进一步加剧了这一紧张态势。
几年前, 中国饱受成品油走私之苦, 但随着今年上半年国际原油价格高企, 成品油走私活动趋于减少。
该分析师称, 目前成品油供应紧张的情况只有到年底才能略微缓解, 届时, 国内多家炼油厂的扩产工程将投产。仅上海石化(SHA 600688)一家, 年底前就将增加800万吨成品油产量。
为应对目前成品油短缺形势, 国内炼油厂纷纷恢复了成品油进口。
新日本石油株式会社(NIPPON Oil Corp)今日证实与中石油(857.HK)签订了9个月加工合同, 从7月1日起, 前者为后者每天加工2万桶原油。
惠誉国际评级公司(Fitch Ratings)分析师Charles Chang表示, 上述消息表明, 中国目前面临精炼油产能不足问题, 这与下半年需求强劲增长有关。
中国今明两年的原油和成品油需求都将保持强劲增长, 预计今明两年中国成品油消费量将以2位数增长。
中石化(386.HK)的专家估计, 去年中国成品油消费量总计1.34亿吨, 预计今年消费量为1.43-1.46亿吨。
