Opec's source of energy
Surrounded by a group of eager reporters, the neatly dressed and diminutive man in the lobby of Beirut's Phoenicia hotel is all but invisible and impossible to hear. But in some of the most influential circles in the world, he is impossible to ignore.
This week, Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia's energy minister, is feeling the glare of the spotlight - possibly more than at any other time in his 56-year career, which began at the age of 12 in an oil company office.
Saudi Arabia is the world's largest exporter of crude oil and the de facto leader of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the cartel that controls 38 per cent of the world's oil supplies. More importantly, the country that sits on more than 20 times the reserves of ExxonMobil, the world's largest listed energy group, is also the only one that has the spare capacity to boost its production and pull oil prices back from the record highs that have begun to threaten the global economy.
Every word, therefore, uttered by Mr Naimi has the potential to move oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the International Petroleum Exchange in London. Although he clearly enjoys the attention, Mr Naimi is careful not to appear to court it, giving secret background briefings to trusted journalists and analysts rather than holding press conferences.
Perhaps one of the most exhausting examples of his drawing power is his ability to raise journalists from their beds before dawn when he sets off for his morning jog. At 68, the former geologist cuts a mean pace around the historic ring road of Vienna, the usual venue of Opec's meetings. The cracking speed of his 10-minute mile is too brutal for the less fit members of the press corps, most at least 30 years his junior, and some have taken to bicycles to keep up with him on his five-mile loop.
For anyone but the most harried wire service reporter - for whom a second's delay transmitting the news could mean multimillion-dollar losses for subscribers on the trading floor - the run is a chance to witness Mr Naimi's lighter side. For example, one learns about his penchant for quail and turkey hunting, which he says is as challenging and fun as maintaining a steady oil price.
Mr Naimi studied in Beirut for seven years before attending Lehigh University in Pennsylvania and Stanford in Palo Alto, and is comfortable handling endless questions from the western media. When rumours were rife that he would lose his job in a cabinet reshuffle in 2003, Mr Naimi said: "No matter what happens, I will come here personally to bring the press out on a run." He also added: "Nobody lives forever. Opec is healthy. It is going to do very well."
Indeed, Opec has been more successful in the past four years than in its previous four decades in keeping oil prices in a price range high enough to secure good revenues for member countries, many of whose budgets rely almost entirely on oil sales. At the same time, it has kept them low enough to prevent Opec competitors cranking up investment and supply or to drive consumers to cheaper energy alternatives. Most of the credit goes to Mr Naimi, the architect of the policy.
His success, however, came from bitter failure. In 1997 in Jakarta, Mr Naimi persuaded the cartel to increase its output quota by 10 per cent. A month later, Asia's financial crisis and the extra oil meant prices halved. They slid to less than $10 a barrel and sent Opec into a tailspin.
It was a painful year, but one in which Mr Naimi laid the foundation of Opec's later success. Eventually he was able to persuade Hugo Chavez, the newly elected Venezuelan president, to rein in his country's overproduction and, slowly, the cartel fell back into line.
But the Jakarta meeting continues to haunt Mr Naimi and may explain why he has been so slow this time to agree to increase production.
This week's Opec meeting in Beirut, where ministers decided the largest output quota increase in more than a decade, was the 14th in six years, compared with just one between the 1991 Gulf war and 1998. But Mr Naimi, who has driven Opec's new hands-on approach, does not spend all his time discussing pricing policy with his fellow oil ministers.
In his nine years as Saudi energy minister he has grappled with other difficult issues, including one that almost cost him his job. Having worked his way up at Saudi Aramco through its transition from being controlled by America's big oil companies to becoming the world's most powerful state-owned oil company after its nationalisation in 1980, he firmly believed the company was capable of running Saudi Arabia's oil and natural gas industry alone. It was hardly surprising, then, that he opposed a government plan in 1998 to reopen Saudi Arabia's doors to international oil companies, which wanted access to the kingdom's vast natural resources.
The $25bn negotiations with big oil executives, which officially began in June 2001, were the centrepiece of the government's economic strategy. By May last year they had collapsed and Lee Raymond, ExxonMobil's formidable chairman and chief executive, walked away after years of sometimes angry discussions. Within a few months, however, the large projects, including construction of power, desalination and petrochemical plants as well as exploring for natural gas, were back in a pared down state and Royal Dutch/Shell, Total of France and, later, Italy's Eni were among those to sign on.
To the benefit of Riyadh, Mr Naimi survived the ups and downs of the affair. And few would disagree that the kingdom is better off with Mr Naimi running Opec at a time when oil prices are at record highs and international pressure is on Saudi Arabia - except, perhaps, those who had prematurely hung up their jogging shoes on cold Vienna mornings.
欧佩克的能量源泉
在贝鲁特腓尼基洲际大酒店(InterContinental Phoenicia Beirut)大堂，一位穿着入时的小个子被一群迫不及待的记者团团围住，旁观者几乎看不到他的身影，也听不清他在说些什么。不过，在世界上某些最具影响力的圈子，他是一位不容忽视的人物。
上周，沙特石油大臣阿里?纳伊米(Ali Naimi,，见图)被耀眼的媒体聚光灯团团围住，这种关注的强度也许是他56年职业生涯中前所未有的。他从12岁起就开始了他的石油生涯，在一家石油公司的办公室里开始工作。
沙特阿拉伯是世界上最大的原油出口国，也是控制全球石油供应量38%的 “石油输出国组织”(OPEC，欧佩克)事实上的领导者。更重要的是，沙特阿拉伯的石油储量超出全球最大的上市能源集团，埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)拥有储量的20多倍，是唯一具备富余产能，有望使创记录油价回落的国家。高油价已经开始对全球经济构成威胁。
因此，从纳伊米先生嘴里吐露的每一个字，都有可能影响纽约商品交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange)和伦敦国际石油交易所(International Petroleum Exchange)的油价。虽然纳伊米先生显然乐意受到媒体的关注，但他小心翼翼地避免鼓励炒作。他不召开新闻发布会，而是对一批值得信任的记者和分析师进行私下吹风。
最能说明他的吸引力的事例之一，也许是他有本事让记者们为了和他一起晨跑而在拂晓之前挣扎着起床。在欧佩克会议的通常举办地维也纳，这位68岁的前地质学家在富于历史情调的环城大道上跑步时，其每英里10分钟的轻快步履，令记者团(多数比他至少年轻30岁)中体质稍逊的成员难以跟上，其中个别人甚至要依靠自行车才能赶上他的5英里环跑。
除了时间压力最大的通讯社记者(对他们而言，迟一秒发稿，就可能意味着交易大厅的订户们承受难以估量的损失)外，这样的跑步让记者们有机会看到纳伊米先生轻松的一面。比如，记者们了解到他对狩猎鹌鹑和火鸡的爱好。据他表示，狩猎活动与保持稳定的油价同样充满挑战和乐趣。
纳伊米先生曾在黎巴嫩学习了7年，然后先后入学美国宾夕法尼亚州的利哈伊大学(Lehigh University)和帕洛阿尔托(Palo Alto)的斯坦福大学(Stanford University)。他能够轻松自如地应对西方媒体记者无休止的提问。2003年，当有谣传称他将在一次内阁改组中被免职的时候，纳伊米先生回应说：“不管发生什么，我都会亲自到这里来带记者出去跑步。”他还补充说：“没有人能够永生。欧佩克的状况十分健康。这个组织将来也将做得很好。”
的确，欧佩克在过去四年里取得了较大成功，与之前四十年的表现形成对比。它一方面保持油价于较高价位，保障了成员国的石油收入(许多欧佩克成员国的国家预算几乎完全依赖石油销售)，另一方面又成功地阻止油价过度攀升，以防止欧佩克的竞争对手加大投资和供应力度，也避免驱使消费者采用更廉价的替代能源。纳伊米先生作为这一政策的设计师，理应为此得到大部分功劳。
但是，他的成功也来自惨痛的失败经验。1997年，纳伊米先生在雅加达说服欧佩克将产量配额提高10%。一个月后，亚洲金融危机和石油供过于求导致油价暴跌一半。油价一度滑落至每桶10美元以下，使欧佩克陷入混乱。
那是痛苦的一年，也是纳伊米先生为欧佩克的未来成功打造基础的一年。最终，他成功地说服委内瑞拉新总统乌戈?查韦斯(Hugo Chavez)收敛该国的过量石油开采。此后，欧佩克的成员国一一接受了产量配额。
但雅加达会议的经历令纳伊米先生耿耿于怀，也许这就是为什么这一次他在同意增产方面动作如此迟缓。
上周在贝鲁特举行的欧佩克会议上，石油部长们商定以十多年来最大的幅度增加产量配额。本次会议是6年来第14次欧佩克会议，与1991年海湾战争至1998年间仅有一次会议形成对比。但推动欧佩克实行积极介入政策的纳伊米先生，并没有把所有时间花在与其他石油部长们商讨油价政策上。
任职沙特石油大臣9年期间，他还处理了其它一些棘手的问题，包括几乎导致他下台的问题。曾在沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(Saudi Aramco)从基层做起，逐级得到提拔的纳伊米先生，亲身经历了该公司在1980年国有化之后，从受到美国大石油公司控制，到全球最强大国有石油公司的转型。他坚信该公司有能力独家经营沙特阿拉伯的石油和天然气工业。因此，他在1998年反对政府面向跨国石油公司的开放计划，这些石油公司有意参与开发沙特阿拉伯王国庞大的天然资源。
与各大石油公司主管进行的价值250亿美元的谈判，是沙特政府经济发展战略的核心组成部分。谈判于2001年6月正式启动。去年5月，谈判宣告破裂。令人生畏的埃克森美孚石油公司总裁兼首席执行官李?雷蒙德(Lee Raymond)在历经数年的谈判后退出了磋商；这些谈判曾出现针锋相对的尖锐场面。然而，仅仅几个月后，各类大型项目就以小于最初设想的规模恢复上马，包括电站建设、海水淡化厂、石化厂、以及天然气勘探项目，参与者包括皇家荷兰/壳牌集团(Royal Dutch/Shell)、法国道达尔集团(Total)，以及后来加入的意大利埃尼集团(Eni)。
对沙特方面有利的是，纳伊米先生历经整个事件的沉浮而保全了自己的职位。在当前油价处于创记录的高价位，沙特阿拉伯为此承受着国际压力的情况下，让纳伊米先生主持欧佩克工作对沙特王国最为有利，很少有人会对此有不同意见 ， 也许除了那些曾在维也纳寒冷的清晨，懒得穿上跑鞋的少数记者。
