High Oil Prices Cast a Shadow Over the World's Recovery
At times both the bulwark and the bane of global economic growth, oil -- known as everything from black gold to "the devil's urine" -- is again emerging as the make-it-or-break-it factor for the world economy.
Crude oil is hovering at its highest price level in more than two decades and Tuesday rose to an intraday high of more than $42, or about �34, a barrel in New York, breaking the previous high set last month. That has caught investors' attention, even though oil has traded much higher in the past when adjusted for inflation.
Oil prices quadrupled during the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries embargo of late 1973 and early 1974, nearly tripled during the 1979 Iranian Revolution, and more than doubled in 1990 just before the first Gulf War.
The key question now: Will a world still in the throes of a fragile recovery soon be confronting its fourth oil "shock" in 31 years?
Economists credit a variety of causes for the recent surge, including fears of potential supply disruptions amid heightened Middle East tensions and the unreliability of Iraqi exports. Another is the ever-growing global demand for oil, led by strong Chinese and U.S. economic growth. Another theory holds that surging petroleum prices are courtesy of speculation by hedge funds and bank proprietary traders.
Last but not least is a long-range concern: "Oil is a nonrenewable resource, and as the world economy expands over the years, we are consuming more and more of it," says John Ip, an economist at Morley Fund Management in London.
Whatever the reason, late last week Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Stephen Roach told clients that "with geopolitical risks mounting and energy markets once again sending ominous signals, oil has once again emerged as a macro [economic] wild card."
If earlier shocks are any guide, the result could be higher inflation and a global recession. Much depends on whether price increases are sustained. Short-term spikes in oil prices usually have only a limited impact on the world economy.
But, if they hold for an extended period, they could reduce world economic growth by roughly half a percentage point, maybe more, says Mr. Ip. "A rising oil price acts like a transfer of resources from consumers to producers," he adds. "Since industrial countries are largely consumers and importers of oil, a rising price is always a negative factor on demand."
Simply put, the more money consumers spend on petroleum products, the less they have for other goods. And the more oil prices increase the cost of finished goods, the bigger the reduction in consumers' purchasing power. At the corporate level, higher oil prices spell higher costs, lower investment, and reduced profits -- and eventually layoffs.
Globally, the beneficiaries of higher oil prices are, of course, the major oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Kuwait, Venezuela, Iran, Mexico and Russia.
Hurt most are oil-dependent Asian developing countries. On average, they use more than twice as much oil as developed countries to produce a single unit of economic output.
Among the major industrial nations, Japan gets a double-whammy: It's a huge oil importer, and 45% of its exports go to other Asian countries. Japanese growth would fall steeply in 2005 and 2006, according to a recent analysis by Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein on the impact of a constant $40-a-barrel oil price, compared with a base scenario of $28. Meanwhile, Japanese inflation would rise.
Under the same scenario, U.S. growth would shrink by 0.2 percentage point in 2005 and half a point in 2006, while inflation would grow by 0.6 and 0.7 percentage point, respectively. The 12-nation euro zone has similar inflation results, but $40 oil would shave growth by 0.3 percentage point in 2005 and another 0.4 point in 2006. A stronger euro tempers some of the impact of higher oil prices on Europe's economy. Still, the Dresdner results aren't pretty.
Furthermore, "these mechanical calculations tend to underestimate the detrimental effects on business and consumer confidence," says Morley's Mr. Ip.
Although high oil prices do the world economy no favors, some strategists think investors may find an upside in energy-company stocks. They're eyeing the increased revenue that higher oil prices bring some companies. Unless the gooey stuff falls below $24, Dresdner's Philip Isherwood thinks higher prices will force analysts, who are currently forecasting oil stocks to have negative earnings growth in 2005, to upgrade their projections. He also contends that in Dresdner's scenario of rising interest rates and slowing growth, investors will flock to oil as a defensive play as they dump cyclical stocks.
Dresdner stock analysts like Spain's Repsol YPF, Norway's Statoil, France's Total, Italy's Eni and Exxon Mobil in the U.S. George Lee, an analyst at Odey Asset Management in London, also thinks oil-service companies, such as Schlumberger and Norway's Smedvig, are worth a look.
In contrast, Morley fund managers are either neutral or short on the oil sector. "If oil jumps to $50, you are going to get a nasty economic impact," says Mr. Ip. "And if the oil price were to go down from the $40 level, you don't want to own oil companies." Instead, he recommends pharmaceuticals, and, if oil stays pricey, avoiding tourism-related companies and airlines.
There are differences from past shocks, some economists argue. Today's high prices reflect increased demand, not reduced supply that characterized past shocks. The economic harm inflicted by higher oil prices is reduced by more-efficient energy usage in industrial countries and their improved credibility in fighting inflation, some say.
Moreover, there is the inflation-adjusted caveat. Michael Lewis, head of commodity research at Deutsche Bank in London, contends that by various measures oil isn't so expensive. Oil would have to climb to above $50 a barrel in inflation-adjusted terms to match where it stood during the 1990-1991 Gulf War, he says.
油价阴霾笼罩全球复苏前景
石油曾被视为全球经济增长的功臣，也曾被看作是全球经济衰退的罪魁祸首，现在它再次成为左右世界经济的重要因素。
近期原油价格多在每桶38.60美元至41.65美元的区间波动，仅略低于20多年来的最高点。周二原油价格触及每桶42美元，突破了5月17日创出的每桶41.85美元的盘中高点。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的首席经济学家史蒂芬?罗奇(Stephen Roach)说，从1973年末到1974年初石油禁运期间，原油价格上涨了3倍，在1979年伊朗爆发伊斯兰革命期间油价上涨了2倍，1990年海湾战争前油价也曾一度走高。
问题的关键在于：仍处于脆弱复苏过程中的全球经济是否很快将面临31年来的第四次石油冲击？
经济学家为近期油价的上涨找出了一系列原因，其中包括对中东地区紧张局势加剧可能导致供应中断的担忧，人们尤其担心伊拉克石油出口的不稳定。此外，中国和美国经济强劲增长推动全球市场对石油的需求不断增加，以及美国石油库存的紧张，也给油价造成了上涨压力。另一个理论则认为，对冲基金和银行自营商的投机行为造成了油价的上涨。
还有一个不容忽视且挥之不去的担忧：Morley Fund Management驻伦敦的经济学家约翰?伊皮(John Ip)说，石油属于不可再生资源，随著这些年来世界经济的发展，对石油的消费量也越来越多。
不论到底是何原因，摩根士丹利的罗奇在上周末向客户表示，随著地缘政治风险的上升和能源市场再次发出危险的信号，石油已经再度成为宏观经济发展的不确定因素。
如果过去的一幕重现的话，结果将是加速通货膨胀和全球经济的衰退。这主要取决于油价的涨势是否还将持续。短期的油价上涨能给全球经济造成的影响有限。但伊皮说，如果油价在相当长的一段时间内持续上涨，这可能使全球经济增长幅度减少0.5个百分点，甚至更多。他说，油价上涨相当于将资源从消费者转移到产油国。由于工业国主要是石油的消费国和进口国，油价上涨对需求总是会产生负面影响。
简单地说，消费者在石油产品上的支出越多，他们得到的其他商品就越少。油价上涨导致产成品成本增加得越多，消费者的购买力下降得就越大。对企业而言，油价上涨使成本增加，投资减少，利润下降，进而导致裁员。
在全球范围内，油价上涨的受益者当然是主要产油国，如沙特阿拉伯、尼日利亚、科威特、委内瑞拉、伊朗、墨西哥和俄罗斯。受伤害最大的则是依赖于石油的亚洲发展中国家。这些国家单位经济产出所消耗的石油是发达国家的两倍以上。其中许多国家的货币还钉住石油的计价货币──美元。
在主要工业国中，日本受到了双重打击：日本是最大的石油进口国，其45%的出口则流向了亚洲国家。Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein的一项研究显示，如果油价维持在每桶40美元，那么与油价维持在每桶28美元相比，日本经济增长率2005年将减少0.5个百分点，2006年则将减少1个百分点。与此同时，日本的通货膨胀率2005年将上升0.8个百分点，2006年将上升0.7个百分点。
同样情况下，美国的经济增长率2005年将减少0.2个百分点，2006年则将减少0.5个百分点；而通货膨胀率2005年将上升0.6个百分点，2006年将上升0.7个百分点。欧元区12国的通货膨胀率情况类似，但经济增长率2005年将减少0.3个百分点，2006年则将减少0.4个百分点。欧元走强缓和了一些油价上涨对欧元区经济的影响。但考虑到欧元区的经济增长率预期值本就不高，Dresdner的研究结果并不令人欣慰。
而Morley的伊皮还表示，这些机械计算的结果可能低估了对企业和消费者信心的负面影响，尤其是与利率上调和房屋价格下跌联系起来，情况就可能更糟。
尽管油价上涨使能源类公司的收入增加，但策略师对是否还值得持有能源类股却持不同看法。Dresdner的策略师菲利普?伊舍伍德(Philip Isherwood)说，除非油价跌至24美元下方，否则就值得持有这类股票。他说，油价上涨将促使分析师上调他们的预期，这些分析师目前预计石油类股2005年的收益将出现下降。他还说，Dresdner预计利率将会上调，经济增速将会放缓，因而投资者将抛出周期类股，而买入作为防御类股的石油公司股票。
Dresdner的分析师看好西班牙的Repsol YPF、挪威的Statoil ASA、法国的道达尔(Total SA)、意大利的Eni SpA和美国的埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp., XOM)。Odey Asset Management驻伦敦的分析师乔治?李(George Lee)也称，石油服务类公司，如斯伦贝谢(Schlumberger Ltd.)和挪威Smedvig ASA的前景看好。
而Morley的基金经理则对石油行业持中性或看空的观点。
伊皮建议，如果投资者认为石油冲击迟早要到来，则应规避旅游相关类股和航空类股。
当然，并不是所有人都认为油价上涨必将导致世界经济下滑。部分人称，这次油价走高是因为需求增加，而不是像以往那样缘于供应减少。许多经济学家还认为，工业国能源使用效率的提高和央行在抵御通货膨胀方面能力的增强降低了油价上涨对经济的损害。
而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank AG, DB)驻伦敦的商品研究部负责人麦克尔?列维斯(Michael Lewis)则认为，从历史角度看，如果不以美元计价，经通货膨胀调整后的油价与收入相比并没有达到非常高的水平。
