Banishing Fear Itself
NOISE CAUSES FEAR. Fear incites uncertainty. Uncertainty instigates selling. Selling creates value, and right now, that value is in equities.
The stock market began the year nicely. Yet despite excellent underpinnings, it quickly bogged down, as investors focused on myriad threats such as inflation, the deficit, and terrorism. Unpleasant as they may be to contemplate, none of these are likely to greatly affect the economy -- political grandstanding notwithstanding. All this overweighting of negative news has, however, helped press down prices, creating even better value.
Just look at the facts: On the plus side, corporate-earnings growth exceeded 25% in the first quarter, and more than 75% of the Standard & Poor's 500 companies reported earnings above the optimistic estimates of analysts. Profits hit new record highs and profit margins are close to cyclical peaks.
This profit performance has not occurred within a vacuum. Virtually all sectors of the economy are participating in the current economic growth. Capital investment has kicked into high gear, as companies expand in the face of rising demand and the profitability to pay for that investment. Consumer spending remains strong, and our export performance has improved.
So, what's the problem? Perceptions of the economy are simply too negative. Even as the economy kept growing, many called the expansion "jobless," due to U.S. jobs going offshore. (It helped little to point out how few jobs were leaving the U.S.). The recent surge in employment reveals that argument's emptiness.
Also, until a few months ago, some named deflation as a great threat. Now some (of the same) voices warn of inflation. A few months ago, we were going to be buried under a tide of exploding federal deficits, estimated at $500 billion this year. Now, with the economy surging, deficit estimates are closer to $400 billion. And some worried China was growing too fast -- until they started worrying its growth would slow.
While everyone recognized that interest rates were at 45-year lows, and would have to rise someday, when the Federal Reserve suggested this, a pall fell over the market. But the Fed only wishes to move policy to neutral, and to see unemployment decline further. Still, sectors perceived to be interest-rate sensitive, whether true or not -- for example, banks and real-estate investment trusts -- were hit fairly hard.
The recent oil-price increase, from roughly $25 per barrel to more than $40, is far less damaging than the rise from roughly $3 to $12 in 1973 and subsequent rise to $50 in 1980. Cars, for example, are roughly twice as energy-efficient on average now than they were in the 70s. And econometric models suggest that higher oil prices will reduce growth by just a few tenths of a percentage point.
Some of the negativity reflects the heat of a presidential campaign, of course. There has been more mudslinging in this campaign than I can recall in many years, although it's still early. And, as the challenger, Sen. Kerry must stress anything negative about the economy as well as the sitting president's failure to manage it better. Good news just can't get an even break.
Also causing drag were the public meetings of the 9/11 Commission, which demonstrated that the FBI had worthwhile information about a possible terrorist attack but was too disorganized to thwart it. That was a disturbing revelation, coming on the heels of the attacks in Spain and new but vague warnings about possible terrorist attacks in the U.S. prior to the fall elections.
And of course the U.S. military remains embroiled in Iraq, amid great disagreement about how to exit. Every day, another news report reminds Americans of this. These political concerns haven't undermined the economy this year, nor are they likely to. Yet they have still roiled markets by distracting investors from the outstanding economic fundamentals.
Cautious investors should continue to avoid the bond market whenever possible. Bonds started to perform badly as soon as it became clear that economic growth was sufficient to produce jobs. Interest rates remain too low, even after the selloff. So, bonds have further downside risk.
But stocks remain the place to be because of their reasonable valuations -- especially given the recent growth in earnings. Growth in stock prices may be rocky from time to time, which is entirely normal. For example, bank stocks got a haircut when investors interpreted rising interest rates as harmful to the sector. But banks make their money off the spread between the rates they charge on loans and those they pay on deposits. With rates on deposits locked at zero, their profit margins compressed. So higher rates should increase bank profitability.
Some concerns will fade, but others will arise to take their place -- and forecasters of doom can always outshout the good-news guys. What's needed is a sense of proportion: The future is always unknown, and investment is always accompanied by risk. Time and growth are what make it worthwhile.
不要杞人忧天
流言引发忧虑；忧虑造成不安；不安激起抛售；抛售创造价值。眼下，这些价值就在美国股市里。
股市今年开局不错。不过尽管基本面非常出色，股市很快就萎靡不振了，因为投资者满脑子都是通货膨胀、财政赤字以及恐怖袭击等各种担忧。虽然一想到这些就令人难受，但没有哪个因素会对经济产生重大影响──它们不过是哗众取宠的政治噱头罢了。可是，如此大量的负面消息的确打压了股价，进而提升了股市的价值。
让我们来看看具体事实，好消息有：今年第一季度的公司收益增幅超过了25%，75%以上的标准普尔500指数成份股的收益好于分析师们的乐观预期。企业利润创下了新高，利润率也接近周期性峰值。
企业利润不是凭空增加的。当前，美国经济的增长几乎体现在经济的所有领域。需求及利润率的上升促使企业进行扩张，于是资本投资高涨。消费支出依然强劲，出口形势也有所好转。
那么，问题在那里？公众对经济形势的看法实在过于悲观了。虽然经济在不断好转，许多人依然把此轮增长称为“失业性“经济增长，因为他们认为美国本土的就业岗位不断流向海外。（实际流失的工作机会少而又少，但这改变不了他们的看法。）而就业率近期的大幅上扬表明上述观点毫无根据。
此外，就在几个月前，一些人还把通货紧缩视为巨大威胁。如今，又是这些人在告诫大家要警惕通货膨胀抬头。数月前，我们还被高达5,000亿美元的本财年财政赤字预期值压得喘不过气来。如今，随著经济的回升，财政赤字预期值已降至4,000亿美元上下。一些人起初担心中国的经济发展过快，后来又担心中国经济发展放缓。
虽然大家都知道当前的利率水平处于45年来的最低点，有朝一日一定会上调，但当美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve，简称：Fed)打算加息时，市场还是弥漫著忧郁的气氛。Fed只是想把货币政策调整为中性，同时让失业率进一步下降。但是，那些对利率较为敏感的经济领域（无论是真是假）依然遭受重挫折，如银行和房地产信托投资等。
油价近期从25美元/桶左右上涨至40美元/桶以上，尽管如此，其破坏性远不能与1973年油价从3美元美元/桶升至12美元/桶、以及1980年油价飙升至50美元/桶时相提并论。例如，如今汽车的平均节能效果是70年代的二倍。计量经济学模型显示，油价上扬只会使经济增长率降低几个千分点。
当然，一些负面消息反映了总统竞选的激烈程度。此次竞选中的相互诽谤中伤是笔者多年未见的，虽然目前离选举日还早著呢。作为挑战者的参议员克里(Kerry)必须强调经济中的任何负面现象，并指责现任总统是多么不称职。而好消息却不予提及。
此外，“911“调查委员会的公开听证会也拖了后腿，听证会表明美国联邦调查局(FBI)获取了关于潜在恐怖袭击的有价值情报，但管理过于混乱的FBI未能挫败有关阴谋。这些披露出来的事实令人不安，因为西班牙刚刚遭遇恐怖袭击，同时传来模糊的警告称美国有可能在秋季总统大选前遭遇恐怖袭击。
虽然各方对于美国军队在伊拉克的去留有巨大分歧，但美军目前仍继续驻扎在当地。每天都有新消息提醒美国人这一点。今年以来，政治问题并没有影响美国经济，今后也不太可能产生什么影响。不过，它们还是扰乱了市场，使投资者心神不安，没有专注于经济的基本面。
谨慎的投资者应当继续尽量避开债券市场。一旦形势表明经济增长足以创造更多的就业将会，债券的表现将非常糟糕。即使遭遇了抛售，债券的收益率仍然太低。因此，债市有进一步下滑的的风险。
但股市依然值得投资，因为股票的估价比较合理，特别是考虑到公司收益近期出现的增长。股价上升常常伴有风险，但目前尚处正常水平。例如，当投资者认为利率上升不利于银行类股时，此类股票遭遇下挫。但银行赚的就是存贷息差，当存款利率锁定为零时，它们的利润率上涨空间也就很小了，因此利率上调应能提振银行的利润率。
投资者的担忧总是此消彼长，而看跌派总是叫得比看涨派响。因此投资者需要把握好分寸：将来总是未知的，而投资总是伴有风险的。时机和成长性应当是投资者关注的重点。
