Oil Companies Curb Their Spending
Despite red-hot oil prices, oil companies are restraining their spending on new projects, worrying industry experts, who fret that producers aren't spending enough to ensure adequate supplies in coming years.
Oil producers typically respond to soaring prices and fat profits by pouring more money into fields or expanding old ones, typically increasing spending 20% to 30%, analysts say. Over time, production would surge -- too much -- and the cycle would turn. In 1998 and 1999, when the price of oil sank to about $10 a barrel, oil-company earnings plunged, too.
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In this cycle, even as oil prices have averaged well above $30 a barrel for months, companies have been preaching the gospel of discipline. Major oil companies, including Exxon Mobil Corp. and ChevronTexaco Corp., have insisted that they aren't changing their spending plans this year. "What they're saying is, 'We've blown it in the past, we're not going to do that again,' " says Paul Sankey, an oil analyst for Deutsche Bank Securities.
Exxon's overall 2003 spending on exploration and production rose 15% to $12 billion from $10.4 billion in 2002, but Exxon says it expects this year's spending to be flat. Exxon says it spent $6 billion last year to develop new projects, with 71 new projects under way and 16 projects brought online last year.
In a statement, ChevronTexaco said, "Our projects are moving forward at a pace guided by long-term corporate strategies and business plans -- and not by short-term market conditions."
Wider surveys of major oil companies and smaller independents indicate spending is rising, though not yet to the level of previous cycles. In December, Lehman Brothers' semiannual spending survey indicated world-wide investment in exploration and production in 2004 would rise about 4% from 2003. As the midyear update approaches, Lehman analyst James Crandell says that figure has risen to about 7% or 8% -- nearly double the estimate, but still single-digit growth.
"We think the bottom line is that the very high oil and gas prices that exist today are having only a moderate effect on E&P spending," he said.
One reason is that it isn't clear how long these very high prices will hold. The current surge reflects a number of complex factors, including fears about terrorism and political unrest, market speculation and unexpectedly strong demand from recovering world economies. Oil and natural-gas demand was expected to increase about 1.5% this year, but now is estimated to rise 2.3% -- the strongest gain in seven years.
Assuming prices remain above $30 or $32 a barrel, some higher-cost projects will look far more attractive than they did a few years ago. Last year companies looked to invest in projects where the cost per barrel of oil was about $16. Now many companies are using $20 to $22 a barrel as their threshold.
IHS Energy, an industry-consulting firm in Houston, said it is forecasting that oil supplies will increase during the next four years, at least enough to match consumption or perhaps enough to bring prices down. Even with political risks in Iraq and elsewhere, the com pany says large projects are coming online in Nigeria, Angola, Brazil, Russia and Kazakhstan, and more oil will flow from many smaller project start-ups. Saudi Arabia, China and Mexico also are moving to increase output. Russia cranked up production last month. Meanwhile in Libya, the removal of longtime sanctions should allow more development there.
"None of this happens in one year," says Chris Reinsvold, IHS vice president of market research. New projects can take seven to eight years to bring online. "However, in the long run, you'll see that decisions will be made to invest as the long-term economics make it viable," he said.
While many experts believe there is plenty of oil in the ground, the International Energy Agency has been warning that unless producers step up spending, supplies will run short. Fatih Birol, the IEA's staff economist, estimates the world needs to invest an average of $69 billion a year in exploration and production this decade to meet demand. He estimates spending has been running as much as 15% behind what is needed.
"There is a recognition that the oil and gas resources are there, and the money, too," said Claude Mandil, who heads the energy-watchdog agency. "The only question is, will the money be willing to invest in oil and gas?"
For several years oil producers have proved reluctant to match their spending to expected demand, says John Westwood, chief executive of British energy-industry consultants Douglas-Westwood Ltd. Mr. Westwood traces part of the dearth in spending to oil companies' recent merger binge, where they bought growth through acquisitions rather than exploration. His firm has been forecasting that the world could begin running short of supplies within 15 years or less without a significant increase in investment. "As far as we're concerned, this is not the real [supply] crunch. This is just a practice," he said.
油价上涨难让石油公司投资新项目
尽管油价炙手可热，石油公司却在遏制对新项目的投资，这不禁令业内专家感到担忧，唯恐生产商的支出不足，难以保证未来几年的供应。
分析师称，面对油价的飙升和丰厚的利润，石油生产商们通常会投入更多资金开采新油田，或扩大原有油田的产量，一般会将支出提高20%至30%。随著时间的流逝，产量将会上升，甚至上升过多，于是周期开始逆转。在1998年和1999年，当油价跌至大约每桶10美元时，石油公司的利润也同样大幅下挫。
但是在这次的周期中，尽管平均油价已连续好几个月保持在远高于每桶30美元的水平，但石油公司却不断宣称要坚持原则。包括埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)和雪佛龙德士古(ChevronTexaco Corp.)在内的大型石油公司一直坚称不会改变今年的支出计划。
德银证券(Deutsche Bank Securities)的分析师Paul Sankey称，这些公司的潜台词是：“我们以前搞糟了，现在不会再那样做。”
埃克森美孚2003年用于开采和生产的支出增长了15%，从2002年的104亿美元增加至120亿美元，但该公司表示预计今年的支出将持平。埃克森美孚表示，公司去年将60亿美元用于开发新项目，其中71个新项目仍在进行之中，有16个项目去年已经投产。
雪佛龙德士古在一份声明中称，公司的目标是按照符合公司长期战略和业务计划的速度发展，而不是根据短期的市场形势。
对上述两大石油公司及其他规模较小的独立石油公司的更广泛的调查表明，支出正在增加，但还未达到以前周期的水平。去年12月，雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)公布的半年支出状况调查报告显示，2004年的开采和生产支出将较2003年增长大约4%。随著年中公布最新报告时间的临近，雷曼兄弟的分析师James Crandell称，上述数据已升至大约7%或8%，几乎是原先估计的1倍，但仍是单位数的增长。他说，雷曼兄弟的结论是目前非常高的石油和天然气价格对开采和生产支出只产生了温和的影响。
造成这一局面的一个原因是目前尚不清楚高油价能持续多长时间。目前的价格上涨是由诸多复杂因素造成的，其中包括对恐怖主义和政局动荡的担忧、市场投机行为以及全球经济复苏导致的出人意料的强劲需求。人们原先估计石油和天然气价格今年将上涨大约1.5%，但目前估计会上涨2.3%，这是7年来最大的涨幅。
假设价格保持在每桶30或32美元以上，那么一些成本较高的项目就会比几年前看起来更有吸引力。去年，各公司寻求的是每桶石油的成本大约为16美元的投资项目，但目前，许多公司将每桶20-22美元作为了投资成本的上限。
位于休斯顿的行业咨询公司IHS Energy预计，今后4年石油供应将会增加，增加的速度至少能满足消耗的需求，或者足以令价格下降。该公司认为，尽管伊拉克和其他地区依然存在政治风险，尼日利亚、安哥拉、巴西、俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦等国投资的一些大型项目将投入生产，而且许多新建的规模较小的项目也将为市场提供更多的石油。此外，沙特阿拉伯、中国和墨西哥也准备增加产量。俄罗斯上个月增加了产量。与此同时，在利比亚，长期制裁的取消应能使石油生产得到发展。
IHS负责市场研究的副总裁Chris Reinsvold表示，这些都不会在1年内完成。新项目可能要等7、8年后才能投产。但他认为，从长期来看，会有更多的投资，因为长期的经济趋势将使投资变得可行了。
尽管多数专家认为，地下埋藏著足够的石油，但国际能源署(International Energy Agency, IEA)却一直在警告说，除非生产者增加支出，否则供应将会不足。IEA经济学家Fatih Birol估计，这个10年中，全球需要平均每年690亿美元的开采和生产投资才能满足需求。但他认为，支出一直较需要的水平低15%。
IEA高官Claude Mandil指出，人们公认石油和天然气资源不缺，资金也不缺，唯一的问题是，掌握资金的人是否愿意投资于石油和天然气的开采。
