Economic oasis flourishes despite Mideast tensions
Growing instability in Iraq, political crisis in the Palestinian territories and a rise in extremism have shrouded the Middle East in gloom. However, despite the troubling political picture, the region is experiencing a rare period of economic expansion.
Gross domestic product of Arab economies grew 5 per cent last year, the highest since 1990, and economists are predicting a similarly positive performance this year.
"We are doing very well," says Henry Azzam, a leading economist in the region and head of Jordinvest, a Amman-based investment trust.
"Stock markets are booming, so are real estate markets and tourism," he says.
Much of the growth is driven by the steep rise in oil prices, but non-oil economies have also benefited from better rainfall over the past year.
Many Arab investors, meanwhile, are keeping part of the funds they usually invest abroad inside the region, fuelling a surge in stock markets and real estate prices.
They are also changing their travel habits, switching away from the US and Europe to countries such as Jordan, Lebanon and Dubai.
Gulf oil-based economies are awash with cash, with Saudi Arabia last year accumulating its highest oil revenues in two decades, and profits of banks in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates up sharply in the first quarter of the year.
At the World Economic Forum meeting that ended in Jordan on Monday, however, the World Bank warned the region's business and political leaders that the upturn was cyclical.
When oil prices reverse, it said, economic growth was likely to return to the yearly average of 3.5 per cent. The labour force in the region, meanwhile, is growing at 3.5 per cent to 4 per cent and creating unprecedented labour tensions.
"Fifteen years ago you could live with an economic growth rate of 3.5 per cent but now you have a huge unemployment problem," says Mustafa Nabli, regional chief economist for the Middle East at the World Bank.
Basil al-Rahim, managing director of MerchantBridge, a London investment firm, says the region is now in a "strange schizophrenic" situation.
"If you look at the socio-political environment, it's pretty horrible. There's terrorism, unemployment, poor education," he says.
"But before people thought the West and the US loved us and all that has changed. People feel their investments abroad are not as welcome and they want to keep some percentage of the money inside. That's why stock markets are doing well."
According to Mr Azzam, the Saudi stock exchange is up 36 per cent this year, despite a growing terrorist threat.
In Qatar, the stock market gained 46 per cent in the same period and Lebanon's exchange was up 22 per cent.
But experts warn that the huge liquidity in the region masks unease in the private sector about committing to long-term projects that could alleviate an average 15 per cent rate of unemployment. Investors are still waiting for a more favourable political environment and an improvement in the investment climate.
"The private sector is not expressing confidence in the long-term prospects of the region," says George Abed, special adviser at the International Monetary Fund.
"Stock markets and real estate markets are doing well but that's momentum investing. It is not a great new opportunity," says Mr Abed.
The need to create new opportunities is more crucial than ever. But governments are reluctant to embark on the needed structural changes, including reforming bloated public sectors. "Governments are so big and costly they cannot do much more even if they have the money. They have to downsize," says Mr Abed.
"Unless we tackle governance and accountability we're not addressing the real issue."
The dilemma facing Arab governments is not only that more than 4m young people come on to the job market every year, but that many of them are educated and have high expectations.
"Governments are stuck," says Mr Nabli, of the World Bank. "They're captured by vested interests that don't want change and labour markets are very tense, so governments are afraid of making moves for change, including privatisation, trade reform and public sector reform. They're afraid it will get out of hand [politically]."
But as time goes by, he says: "What you're doing is simply building up problems."
阿拉伯经济的新绿洲
伊拉克局势日趋失控，巴勒斯坦领土上政治危机愈演愈烈，极端主义甚嚣尘上，中东似乎笼罩在漫天的阴暗中。然而，尽管政治局势动荡不安，中东地区的经济却正在经历少见的增长。
去年，阿拉伯国家经济体的国内生产总值增长5%，是1990年以来最高的，而经济学家们预计，今年的表现也将同样出色。
知名经济学家、 Jordinvest投资基金主管亨利o阿扎姆(Henry Azzam)表示："我们的形势好得很。" Jordinvest投资基金的总部设在阿曼。
"股市正在节节攀升，房地产市场和旅游业也很兴旺，"他说。
这种增长在很大程度上是由油价暴涨推动的，但过去一年来较好的降雨量，也使非石油经济体获益。
与此同时，许多阿拉伯投资者将他们通常投资于海外市场的部分资金保留在当地，由此抬高了中东地区的股市和房地产价格。
中东人还改变了自己的旅行习惯，从欧美国家转移到约旦、黎巴嫩和迪拜之类的国家。
以石油为主的海湾国家目前充斥着金钱。沙特阿拉伯去年的石油收入是20年来最高的，而今年第一季度，沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的银行利润也出现大幅度增长。
不过，周一在约旦闭幕的"世界经济论坛"上，世界银行向中东地区的商业和政治领导人发出警示：当前的经济好转是周期性的。
世界银行指出，当油价开始回落后，经济增长有可能减低至3.5%的年平均数。而与此同时，中东地区的劳动力队伍每年扩大3.5%至4%，形成前所未有的就业压力。
世界银行首席中东经济学家穆斯塔法o纳卜利(Mustafa Nabli)指出："15年前，中东还能够承受3.5%的经济增长率，但现在该地区存在巨大的失业问题。"
按照伦敦投资公司MerchantBridge董事总经理巴兹尔o阿尔拉希姆(Basil al-Rahim)的说法，当前中东地区正处于"奇怪的分裂"状态。
"就社会和政治环境而言，形势相当糟糕。恐怖主义、失业、教育质量不良等问题层出不穷，"他说。
"但在以前，(中东地区的)人们以为西方和美国对我们有好感，而现在这一切都变了。人们觉得既然他们在海外的投资不那么受欢迎，还不如把一部分财富留在本地。这就是为什么股市如此牛气十足。"
据阿扎姆先生介绍，沙特股市今年顶住日趋严重的恐怖威胁，已上涨了36%。
同期卡塔尔股市猛增46%，而黎巴嫩股市也攀升了22%。
但专家们警告说，中东地区目前巨大的资金流量，掩盖着私营部门不愿投资长期项目的心态，而这意味着平均高达15%的失业率难以降低。投资者们还是在亟盼着更好的政治和改善的投资环境。
国际货币基金组织特别顾问乔治o阿比德(George Abed)指出："私营部门没有对该地区的长远前景表现出信心。"
"股市和房地产市场固然一片繁荣，但那是跟风投资（momentum investing），不是什么了不起的新机会，"阿比德先生说。
创造新机遇的需要，比以往任何时候都更为迫切。但中东各国政府不愿开展必要的结构性改革，包括对臃肿的公营部门进行改革。"政府部门如此庞大而且代价高昂，他们即使有了资金也难以比现在更有所作为。他们必须厉行精简，"阿比德先生说。
"除非我们开始着手处置妥善治理和责任追究制度，否则我们还是没有在应对真正的问题。"
阿拉伯各国政府面对的难题，不仅是每年有超过400万的年轻人进入劳动力市场，而且是这些人中有很多受过高等教育，期望甚高。
世界银行的纳卜利先生表示："这些政府都限于困境，动弹不得。他们一方面被不愿看到现状改变的利益集团裹挟，另一方面鉴于就业压力如此巨大，他们也确实无心推动任何变化，如私有化、贸易改革、以及公营部门改革。他们害怕(政治)局势会失控。"
但他指出，拖得越久问题越大。他说："他们的行为不啻是在堆积问题。"
