Screen makers gamble on desire for slim-line look
There is a common factor linking the latest digital gadgetry vying for attention at Samsung Electronics headquarters' showroom in Suwon, South Korea - flat panel displays.
The showroom helps explain why Samsung and several other Asian technology companies are investing billions of dollars to produce the display s.
For the investment to pay off, these manufacturers are relying on consumers to replace ageing TVs and monitors with slimmer, flat screen models. But with competition in the market already fierce, the returns are far from certain.
David Steel, head of marketing for Samsung's digital media arm, admits it is risky. "But every business opportunity involves risk. Is it a risk that we are confident about? Absolutely."
The flat screen market has been dominated by computer monitors and notebook PCs - 91 per cent of liquid crystal display (LCD) sales in the final quarter of 2003. But this year LCD monitors are forecast to outsell their bulky cathode ray tube (CRT) predecessors.
However, manufacturers expect TVs to be the main source of growth in the flat screen industry over the next few years. Of about 140m TVs sold around the world last year, only 3m used LCDs. Mr Steel predicts this will rise to about 9m this year, some 15m in 2005 and 30m by 2007.
Last week's announcement that LG Philips, the Korean-Dutch display-maker, would seek to raise nearly $2bn in an initial public offering this July underlined the scale of the investment in the rapid expansion.
LG Philips and some co-investors plan to plough $21bn into production capacity over the next 10 years; Samsung has pledged $17bn to its display-making business; and Taiwanese, Japanese and Chinese companies are likewise investing heavily.
Most investment has been directed at LCDs used in monitors and smaller TVs. But production of plasma display panels, a rival technology more suited to large TVs, is also growing rapidly.
Manufacturers are rushing to build advanced fabrication plants that can produce the panels more efficiently, bringing the price of flat screen devices within reach of more consumers.
Steve Song, director of DisplaySearch, a flat screen consultancy in Seoul said: "They are building these [fabrication plants] in anticipation of continuous growth in the flat panel display market for the next five to 10 years".
Japan's wealthy, technology-savvy and space-starved consumers have so far been the biggest buyers of flat screen TVs. But Europe and the US are catching up as prices fall and screen sizes increase.
A 32-inch LCD TV retails at about $4,000, making it a premium product for the wealthy and fashion-conscious. Manufacturers need to bring this price down to attract more consumers but not so much that it threatens profitability.
Kim Hyunsuk, vice-president of Samsung's LCD TV business, says the price of a 32-inch model could fall to $3,000 this year as capacity increases.
He says LCD monitors became mass-market products when their price fell to 2.5 times that of a CRT model. If LCD TVs follow a similar pattern, the price of a 32-inch set would have to reach $2,500 before being widely embraced by consumers. That could happen within 18 months, according to Mr Kim.
Mr Song warns that the price of the finished item will fall more rapidly than the cost of production, as manufacturers compete for market share. This will squeeze profit margins. Costs will gradually come down as next-generation plants come online but by then the industry could be threatened by oversupply.
He said: "Next year, capacity will be greater than demand. So far, demand for LCD TVs has not met the expectations of panel suppliers. This is the big question for this year and next: will demand pick up quickly enough?"
Analysts warn that investment in new plants is driven mostly by the need to make panels more efficiently rather than by market demand. And with the most up-to-date LCD fabrication plants costing about $2bn each and a lengthy time lag between investment and production, some could turn out to be expensive white elephants.xref Matsushita Y90bn plan,
制造商豪赌纯平显示器
位于韩国水原市的三星电子总部产品陈列室中，各种最新数字产品竞相吸引着人们的注意力，它们有一个共同特点，那就是纯平显示（flat panel displays）。
这间陈列室有助于解释，为什么三星公司以及其它几家亚洲科技公司投入数十亿美元来生产显示器。
为了使投资获得回报，这些制造商正在指望消费者用更轻便的纯平屏幕型号，来更换老式的电视机和显示器。但是在已经非常激烈的市场竞争中，获得利润远不是那么有把握。
三星公司数字媒体部（digital media arm）的营销经理戴维o斯蒂尔（David Steel）承认市场存在风险。"但是每个商业机会都会有风险。对于这种风险我们有信心吗？绝对有。"
计算机显示器和笔记本电脑主导了纯平屏幕市场，2003年最后一个季度中，它们占据了液晶显示屏（LCD）销售额的91％。据估计，今年LCD显示器的销售量将超过它笨重的上一代产品阴极射线管显示器（CRT）。
但是，生产厂家希望电视成为未来几年中纯平屏幕工业的主要增长来源。去年全世界大约售出了1.4亿台电视机，其中只有300万台使用了LCD。斯蒂尔先生预测,今年会上升到900万台，2005年可能会达到1500万台，在2007前达3000万台。
韩荷合资的显示器生产商LG Philips公司上周宣布，将在今年7月的首次公开招股中设法募集20亿美元。这突显了投资规模正在迅速扩张。
LG Philips和一些共同投资人计划在今后10年中再投资210亿美元扩充产能；三星公司已经保证在显示器生产业务中投入170亿美元；台湾、日本和中国大陆的公司也同样在投入巨资。
大部分的资金投入用于显示器和更小型电视机的LCD。但是另一种与之竞争的技术，等离子显示器的生产也在快速增长，它更适合大屏幕电视机。
生产厂家正在一窝蜂的建造更先进的装配工厂，这些工厂可以更高效率地生产显示面板，将纯平屏幕设备的价格降到更多消费者可以承受的范围内。
DisplaySearch是一家位于汉城的纯平屏幕顾问公司，史蒂夫o宋（Steve Song）是这家公司的董事长。他说："他们建造这些（装配工厂），是因为预期今后5到10年中纯平显示市场会持续增长。"
迄今为止，日本的那些富有、且喜欢高科技又深受空间狭小之苦的消费者是纯平屏幕电视机的最大买家。但是随着价格下降和屏幕尺寸的扩大，欧洲和美国正在迎头赶上。
一台32英寸的LCD电视机零售价大约为4000美元，这使它成为专供富人和追求时髦者的高价商品。生产厂家需要降价来吸引更多的消费者，但又不能降得太多，以免威胁到利润。
三星公司LCD电视部门的副总裁Kim Hyunsuk说，随着产量上升，32英寸型号的价格今年可能会降到3000美元。
他说当LCD显示器的价格降到CRT型号的2.5倍时，它就成为了大众商品。如果LCD电视机也遵循类似的模式，那么一旦32英寸电视机的价格降到2500美元，它就会被广大消费所接受。根据Kim先生的说法，这将在18个月内实现。
宋先生则发出警告，随着生产厂家为了市场份额互相竞争，成品的价格将比生产成本下降得更快。这会挤干边际利润。当新一代的工厂投产，成本会逐渐降低，但那时这个行业可能会遇到供给过多的危险。
他说："明年，产量将大于需求。到目前为止，对LCD电视机的需求还没有达到厂家的期望。今明两年最大的问题需求是，需求量是否会上升得足够快。"
分析家警告说，对新工厂投资的动力主要是为了使工厂更有效率，而不是为了市场需求。考虑到大多数最新的LCD工厂每个都要耗资20亿美元，以及投资和生产之间漫长的周期，它们中的一些将可能会成为昂贵而又无用的东西。
