Restrictions fail to curb developers in China
Developers in Hong Kong and Singapore have announced further substantial investments in China's property sector, undaunted by new measures by mainland authorities to cool down the real estate market and slow down fixed-asset investment. Hong Kong-based Kerry Properties and hotelier Shangri-la Asia, both controlled by Malaysian tycoon Kuok Hock Nien, yesterday revealed plans to develop a US$600m residential and commercial property complex in Shanghai.
The two companies said they would form a joint venture with Shanghai Jingan District Land Development to develop four sites in central Shanghai. The joint venture would be 50.5 per cent owned by Kerry Properties and 48.5 per cent owned by Shangri-la Asia, with 1 per cent going to the state-owned enterprise.
The two Hong Kong-listed partners plan to turn the sites into a complex including a hotel, offices, a shopping arcade and residential and serviced apartments.
Construction is expected to begin in early 2005 and finish in mid-2009, while the hotel should open in 2008.
Chew Fook Aun, chief financial officer at Kerry Properties, said the project should receive government approval, despite recent moves by Chinese authorities to slow down investment.
"I don't think there will be any problem," Mr Chew said. "We are very experienced in China and we have a state-owned enterprise as our partner this time."
A State Council directive carried last week by the Xinhua news agency said regulators would examine most fixed-asset investments, including office buildings, shopping malls, golf courses and urban railways. It also said China would not approve any new projects in steel, aluminium and cement.
Mr Chew said Kerry Properties, which first entered China in the early 1980s, was also not worried about measures by the Shanghai municipality to counter speculation in the property market.
"This project will not be ready until four or five years later. By that time the demand and supply situation should be better," he said.
In Shanghai, property prices rose 28.3 per cent year-on-year in the first three months of 2004, while other large cities reported average growth of less than 8 per cent.
Fixed-asset investment in the first quarter rose 43 per cent year-on-year while real estate investment grew 41.1 per cent.
Last week, Singapore-based CapitaLand, southeast Asia's largest property and retail developer, launched the Beijing operations of its wholly-owned CapitaLand China unit and said it planned to double its China investments to Rmb10bn ($1,200m) in three to five years. About Rmb3bn of the Rmb5bn CapitaLand has invested since entering China in 1994 is in Beijing, while in Shanghai it is among the top three foreign companies involved in high-quality residential and commercial developments. The group's projects in China are worth more than Rmb12bn.
Liew Mun Leong, CapitaLand group president and chief executive officer, said he remains "confident of the country's continued growth prospects", and said the company is now looking to expand to cities such as Guangdong, Chongqing, Chengdu and Ningbo.
The boom in the construction and real estate sectors that has come with the spectacular growth in the Chinese economy has led to concerns that a bubble may be forming in the property sector. But analysts remain positive on CapitaLand's decision to pour more money into the country.
"Singapore is a mature market. Property developers can either stay and wither away, or go after growth markets," said GK Goh Securities property analyst Winston Chew.
"For CapitaLand, Shanghai was their first stepping stone into China. Obviously now they want to diversify their risks a little by moving to Beijing and other cities and it's the right thing to do."
Analysts said the policies being implemented by the Chinese authorities to moderate growth in the property sector should help dampen speculation and curb sharp price fluctuations.
"Even if there is a property market collapse in the short term, it is only the less financially sound players that are likely to go bust," said Christopher Gee, analyst at JP Morgan in Singapore.
"But players like CapitaLand, which have a strong brand name and sound balance sheet, should be able to ride a bad cycle. They're in it for the long haul, so their investments are likely to pay off."
CapitaLand is also spreading its risks by raising financing for its projects from overseas investors.
It closed a US$60m China property fund last month and is exploring the possibility of marketing a much larger fund in the near term.
But challenges remain. "When they first entered the market, they were able to secure land banks at a fairly low price," said Chistopher Wong, investment manager at ABN Amro in Singapore.
"Their biggest competition comes from domestic developers that are owned by provincial governments. They have a head start on securing land banks. The question is whether CapitaLand can continue to get access to and build on lucrative land banks in the future."
中国屡屡降温 外商热度不减
中国政府最近动用多项措施让房地产市场降温，让固定资产投资放缓。但是，这些措施并没有吓走香港和新加坡发展商，他们甚至宣布大幅度增加对中国房地产业的投资。总部设在香港的嘉里建设有限公司（Kerry Properties）和酒店业集团香格里拉亚洲有限公司（Shangri-la Asia）昨天透露，双方计划投资6亿美元，在上海开发一处商住两用综合楼盘。这两家发展商的控股方均为马来西亚大亨郭鹤年（Kuok Hock Nien）。
两家公司说，它们将与上海市静安区房地产开发经营公司（Jingan District Land Development）合资，开发上海中心地段的四块地皮。在该合资企业中，嘉里建设有限公司所占股份为50.5%, 香格里拉亚洲有限公司所占股份为48.5%,余下1%股份为国有的上海市静安区房地产开发经营公司持有。
这两家在香港上市的合作伙伴公司计划，将这些地皮开发为综合楼群，其中包括一家酒店、若干写字楼、一处拱廊商场，还有住宅和酒店式公寓。
该楼群预计在2005年初动工，2009年中旬完工，其中酒店将于2008年开业。
嘉里建设有限公司财务总监周福安（Chew Fook Aun）表示，尽管中国政府近来通过调控减缓投资，但上述项目应该能够通过政府审批。
"我想不会有什么问题，"周先生说。"我们在中国经营经验丰富，而且这次还有国企作为合作伙伴。"
据新华社消息，国务院上周发布指令，要求相关监管部门审查所有的固定资产投资，如写字楼、购物中心、高尔夫球场和城市轨道交通设施等。据说中国将不再批准在钢铁、铝和水泥等领域的新的工程项目。
周先生说，嘉里建设有限公司1980年代早期即进入中国。虽然上海政府现在正采取措施，限制房地产市场投机，但该公司并不担心。
"我们的项目四五年后才能竣工。到那时候，供求形势都应该有所好转。"他说。
在2004年前三个月，上海房地产价格的年增长幅度为28.3%，其它大城市的增幅也在8%以上。
第一季度，固定资产投资相比去年同期增长43%,而房地产投资增幅为41.1%。
上周，总部在新加坡的东南亚最大房地产和零售开发商凯德置地（CapitalLand ）也宣布，公司旗下的全资公司凯德置地中国的北京业务正式启动。该公司还表示，在三五年内，公司的在华投资将翻一番，达人民币100亿元（合12亿美元）。凯德置地于1994年进入中国，迄今为止，公司人民币50亿的投资中，有30亿是在北京，在上海开发高级商用和住宅房产的外资企业中，该公司也位列前三甲。该集团的在华项目总价值超过120亿元人民币。
凯德置地集团总裁兼首席执行长刘梦龙（音译，Liew Mun Leong）说，他一直"对中国持续发展的前景有信心，"还说公司还将业务拓展到广东、重庆、成都、宁波等地。
建筑和房地产业的繁荣是和中国经济的高速发展是分不开的，但这繁荣也让人担心，房地产业可能出现泡沫。另一方面，对于凯德置地向中国追加投资，分析家们也都持肯定态度。
"新加坡是成熟市场。房地产开发商如果呆在新加坡不走，路子会越走越窄，而迈向发展型市场不失为一条出路。"吴玉钦证券公司（GK Goh）地产分析师温斯顿o周（Winston Chew）说。
"对凯德置地来说，上海是他们进入中国的跳板。显然，他们现在想分散风险，进入北京和其它城市，这是明智之举。"
分析家还说，中国政府对房地产业开展宏观调控的政策有助于大压投机，限制价格的飞速上涨。
"即便近期房地产市场出现大滑坡，破产的也只是那些财务底子不太厚的企业。"新加坡摩根大通的分析师克里斯托弗o吉（音译，Christopher Gee）说。
"但是凯德置地品牌强大，良好的资产负债表，定能驾驭逆境。他们是在做长线，所以其投资很可能得到回报。"
凯德置地还为其项目向海外融资，这也是分散风险的一种方式。
上个月，凯德置地达成了一宗6000万美元的中国房地产基金交易。公司还在尝试，看近期能否将一个更大的基金项目推销出去。
但挑战依然存在。"刚进入中国市场的时候，公司都能以比较低的价格买到地皮，"新加坡荷兰银行（ABN Amro）的投资经理克里斯托弗o黄（音译，Christopher Wong）表示。
"他们最大的竞争对手是各省政府下属的国有开发商。他们买地皮的条件得天独厚。凯德置地所面临的问题是，以后还能不能买到利润丰厚的地皮，能不能开发这些地皮。"
