In Asia, Election Worries Ease As Region Matures Politically
As 2004 approached, many investors worried that a spate of elections across Asia could destabilize economies and disrupt stock markets. Now, more than halfway through the regional electoral season, most are relieved to find their worst fears haven't materialized.
Polls to choose prime ministers, presidents and parliaments have been held, or are in progress, in South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and India. With one notable exception, the campaigning and the elections themselves have had a generally positive influence on markets. Where the impact has been negative, the effects usually haven't lingered or been excessively damaging.
"Elections come and go, and there is excitement around them," says Tim Condon, a Hong Kong-based regional strategist for ING Financial Markets. "But markets won't be driven for long on election news; they go back to being driven by other news."
With the region maturing politically, many Asian elections are turning out to be much the same as those elsewhere. The moral of the story, says Mr. Condon: "Investors need not fear elections in Asia."
Of course, determining what is driving markets is complex, and analysts often disagree when trying to untangle local influences from global ones. The task is even more difficult with three major external factors hurting Asian equities: a rising risk premium in financial and oil markets because of the situation in Iraq; growing uncertainty over the U.S. interest-rate policy; and concern about whether China's growth rate could drop sharply.
Still, some once-volatile Asian markets took local political confrontations in stride. Investors rewarded Indonesia for a relatively smooth, violence-free legislative election April 5, no small achievement given the magnitude and complexity of a ballot involving 147 million voters. As President Megawati Sukarnoputri's party was beaten into second place by Golongan Karya, former President Suharto's old party, the stock market surged. The Jakarta Stock Exchange's composite index hit a record 818.16 April 27, up from 750.77 when campaigning started six weeks earlier.
Similarly, a convincing victory by Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's National Front coalition in Malaysia's March 21 parliamentary election was the best outcome as far as the Kuala Lumpur market was concerned. While the coalition always was expected to win, its resounding defeat of the opposition Islamic party at both federal and state levels was seen as a vote for moderation and a return to more rational economic policymaking after the departure of long-serving leader Mahathir Mohamad.
The stock market rose steadily in the month before the election and peaked soon afterward. The Composite Index reached a year high of 908.96 March 22, a 12% increase from early February. The index closed Friday at 835.37.
The Jakarta index has slipped this month, prompting speculation that the market is nervous about the July 5 first round of Indonesia's experiment with direct presidential elections. But it won't matter much who wins the presidential race, some analysts say, and the markets almost certainly appreciate the favorable outcomes in Indonesia and Malaysia more than they indicate. "These are positives which are not necessarily being seen" because of concerns emanating from the U.S., the Middle East and China, says Singapore-based Manu Bhaskaran of strategic-advisory firm Centennial Group.
The South Korean stock market has taken a hit in recent weeks for the same reason, despite decisive April 15 parliamentary elections showing voters' anger over the impeachment of President Roh Moo Hyun in March. Without external factors, analysts say, the market most likely would have recovered some of the ground it lost following Mr. Roh's suspension.
The Philippines, where national and provincial elections take place today, has seen some turmoil ahead of the vote. Early in the campaign, some investors made speculative attacks on the currency and stock market when it looked like Fernando Poe Jr., a movie star with no political experience, might defeat President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. But in the past month, markets have gained confidence as Ms. Arroyo regained the lead in opinion polls. The Philippine Stock Exchange's composite index closed Friday at 1554.69, up 12% from 1388 near the end of March. The election shouldn't play a big role in market trends if Ms. Arroyo wins, analysts say.
In India, on the other hand, stock markets early this year priced in a comfortable win for Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's ruling coalition. But stocks began to slip when exit polls for early rounds of voting, which began April 20, showed the outcome likely will be close. Investors fret that Mr. Vajpayee, after today's final round of voting, may need to recruit small parties to keep his coalition in power, which could slow economic overhauls or produce an unstable government.
The major exception to Asia's generally benign electoral trend has been Taiwan. Its March 20 presidential election was volatile, involving sensitive issues of nationalism and identity. President Chen Shui-bian's razor-thin victory, one day after he survived a mysterious assassination attempt, came as an unexpected and unwelcome surprise to investors.
The Taiwan Stock Exchange's main index, at 6815.09 the day before the poll, plunged more than 10% in a week of panic before rebounding to briefly top the pre-election level. Later, it started sliding again -- hitting a one-year low of 5854.23 May 5 -- on persistent political uncertainty, worries about the Chinese economy and troubled cross-straits relations. A recount, demanded by the opposition, which alleges irregularities in the vote, begins today.
While political turmoil isn't about to disappear in Asia, analysts agree voters and investors are adjusting fairly comfortably to the idea of governments facing public judgment. For most of the region, ING's Mr. Condon says, "it has been a source of comfort to know that elections aren't necessarily the risky events we feared as we looked forward from 2003."
亚洲大选平稳过半
在2004年临近时，许多投资者曾担心亚洲地区的一系列大选可能导致经济的不稳定，并拖累股市的表现。而现在，随著本地区的选举日程过半，许多人如释重负，他们发现最担心的情况并没有成为现实。
韩国、台湾、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、菲律宾和印度有关大选或议会选举的投票已告结束或正在进行当中。这些活动总体上都给市场带来了积极的影响，只有一个明显例外。在产生不利影响的地区，这种负面作用通常也不会持续很久或产生毁灭性的后果。
ING Financial Markets位于香港的区域策略师康迪天(Tim Condon)说，选举的过程令人兴奋，但市场不会长期受选举消息的左右，最终还是要受其他消息影响。
随著亚洲地区在政治上越来越走向成熟，许多亚洲的大选逐渐同其他地区趋同。康迪天说，这表明亚洲地区的投资者也无需对大选感到担忧。
当然，判断驱动市场走势的原因是复杂的，分析师从全球因素中理清本地因素的影响时也常常意见不一。在以下三方面的主要外部因素同时打击亚洲股市时，要准确做出分析就更加难上加难。这三个因素是：伊拉克局势造成金融及石油市场风险溢价上升、美国利率政策的不确定性不断增加、以及人们担心对中国经济增长率是否会大幅下降。
然而，一度动荡的部分亚洲市场这次却冷静地应对了本地的政治活动。投资者对4月5日印度尼西亚相对平稳、没有发生暴力事件的议会选举感到欣慰，鉴于有1.47亿选民投票带来的规模和复杂程度，这是一个不小的成就。总统梅加瓦蒂(Megawati Sukarnoputri)的政党被前总统苏哈托(Suharto)曾经领导的专业集团党(Golongan Karya)击败而屈居第二，股市也因此走高。雅加达证交所综合指数4月27日创出818.16点的新高，高于6周之前竞选开始时的 750.77点。
与此类似，马来西亚总理巴达维(Abdullah Ahmad Badawi)领导的执政联盟国民阵线(National Front coalition)在3月21日的议会选举中取得绝对胜利，这也是吉隆坡市场所能得到的最好结果。尽管结果早在人们预料之中，但此次在联邦和州选举中都压倒性地战胜伊斯兰教党(Islamic party)，表明了选民对温和政策的赞赏，以及在长期执政的领导人马哈蒂尔(Mahathir Mohamad)离任后马来西亚将重新回到更为理性的经济政策上。
当地股市在选举前的一个月开始稳步攀升，并在选举后不久达到高点。吉隆坡证交所综合指数在3月22日创出908.96点的1年高点，较2月初上涨12%。该指数上周五收于835.37点。
雅加达证交所综合指数本月连续走低，令人猜测市场可能对7月5日印尼历史上首轮直接大选感到紧张。但部分分析师表示，谁赢得大选可能并不十分重要。战略谘询机构Centennial Group驻新加坡的马努．巴斯卡兰(Manu Bhaskaran)说，由于源于美国、中东和中国的担忧，这些积极的因素可能被人们忽视了。
尽管4月15日的韩国议会选举显示，选民对3月份弹劾总统卢武铉(Roh Moo Hyun)感到愤怒，但最近几周韩国股市受打击的原因却同样缘于这些外部因素。分析师称，如果没有这些因素的干扰，韩国股市很可能会收复卢武铉停职后的部分失地。
菲律宾将从5月10日开始进行全国和省选举，此前市场出现一些动荡的迹象。在竞选活动之初，部分投资者在汇市和股市上进行投机性的炒作，当时没有从政经验的影星费尔南多．坡(Fernando Poe)似乎有望战胜总统阿罗约(Gloria Macapagal Arroyo)。但在上个月中，随著阿罗约重新在民意测验中取得领先地位，市场也恢复了信心。菲律宾证交所指数上周五收于1554.69点，比3月末时的1388点上涨了12%。分析师称，如果阿罗约获胜，则此次选举不会明显影响市场趋势。
而在印度，股市在今年初就消化了总理瓦杰帕伊(Atal Bihari Vajpayee)领导的执政联盟将获胜的因素。但在4月20日首轮选举前的最后一次民意测验显示结果可能比较接近后，股市开始走低。投资者担心在5月10日的最后一轮选举后，瓦杰帕伊可能需要联合小政党来保持执政联盟的地位，此举可能减缓经济改革或导致政府动荡。
台湾是亚洲总体良好的选举趋势中最主要的一个例外。3月20日的总统大选充满变数，总统陈水扁的险胜也大大出乎投资者的意料。
台湾证交所加权指数在大选前一天收于6815.09点，此后在一周的恐慌中下跌了10%以上，然后出现反弹，一度突破了选举前的水平。由于持续的政治变数、对中国大陆经济的担忧和两岸关系的恶化，股指不久后再度下跌，在5月5日创出了5854.23点的1年低点。由于反对党宣称选举中存在舞弊现象，从5月10日开始将进行重新计票。
尽管亚洲地区的政治动荡难以完全消失，但分析师认为，选民和投资者对政府需要接受公众判断这样的观点也变得更为理性。ING的康迪天说，对大多数地区而言，令人感到欣慰的是，大选不再像人们2003年预想的那样，是一件充满风险的事情。
