Commodity Boom Is Showing Signs Of Coming to an End
After a two-year bull market in raw-materials prices, commodity traders are growing edgy.
Last week, metals prices fell broadly on news that Chinese government officials had asked banks to restrain their lending at the end of April -- a move widely viewed as further evidence that China's economy could soon slow. Even before last week's pullback, prices for many commodities -- including copper and lead -- had started falling. Nickel, one of the hottest commodities in the world over the past year, has fallen to about $11,200 a ton from more than $17,000 a ton at the beginning of the year.
While demand for raw materials remains solid, a growing number of industry analysts and traders suspect that the commodity boom -- if not over -- is losing steam.
Producers are ramping up capacity to take advantage of higher prices, and China's voracious demand for raw materials is expected to slow as the Chinese government works to cool the nation's economy.
"People need to be a little more cautious about how high [the commodity market] was going to get and how long it was going to be there," said David Thurtell, a commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. "We probably have seen the peak."
Even if China continues to grow rapidly, moves by producers are starting to affect commodity prices.
Mining companies are increasing production, which is often a good sign of a shift in the cycle. Most commodity booms last about 30 months, according to Merrill Lynch research, and are triggered when demand unexpectedly increases, catching suppliers off guard. But persistent high prices, such as in the current environment, convince producers that it is worth their time and money to expand capacity.
New supply, of course, takes pressure off prices. And since it often takes years to bring new mines into full operation, expansions that occur at cyclical peaks can often lead to flat or weaker prices for years to come.
Expansion plans are snowballing. Among numerous examples, mining company Rio Tinto PLC recently commissioned a mine in central Queensland, Australia, that is expected to produce 5.5 million new tons of coking coal a year. That mine was initially slated for development in the late 1990s, but executives held off until market conditions improved. Now, the company is even considering accelerating the next phase of the project, which would push the mine's production to eight million tons a year.
A similar ramp-up is under way at BHP BillitonLtd., which last month announced a $870 million project to boost output at its Escondida copper mine in Chile. The expansion should add 180,000 tons to Escondida's annual production of 1.25 million tons. Similarly, the company is moving ahead with a $1.4 billion project that includes developing its Ravensthorpe nickel deposit in western Australia. That mine should increase BHP Billiton's nickel production by about 50,000 tons a year by 2008.
These and other expansion plans aren't necessarily unwise investments for the companies that make them. Increased production could allow larger companies like Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton to grab more market share in the coming years. Some large producers note that their newest projects have been on the drawing boards for years, and in some cases, the newer mines will only serve to meet existing demand rather than speculative needs down the road.
Even so, many analysts believe the projects are indicative of a shift in the cycle. Among other things, they could cool some of the panic buying that occurred in recent months, when some end-users feared there simply wouldn't be enough copper, nickel, iron ore or other resources to go around.
Meanwhile, the newest projects come on top of other developments that could result in greater production.
For example, at least some of the rapid run-up in commodity prices in late 2003 and early 2004 was driven by supply disruptions that over time will be resolved. Also, shipping rates have fallen in recent months, taking even more pressure out of the market, though rates remain far higher than a year ago.
In commodity trading yesterday:
PORK BELLIES: Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange hit contract highs on record fresh-pork-belly prices and continued strong demand for bacon. May belly futures closed at their exchange-imposed daily price limit of three cents higher, at 119.85 cents a pound.
CRUDE OIL: Futures at the New York Mercantile Exchange rallied as continued fears of supply disruptions lifted prices to their highest settlement since Oct. 12, 1990. June crude oil rallied 59 cents to $39.57 a barrel.
LUMBER: Repurchases of sold positions pushed up futures at the CME to the daily limit. July lumber rose $10 a 1,000 board feet to $425.30, a new contract high.
商品市场的繁荣是否已到尽头？
商品市场两年的牛市行情是否已到了尽头？
上周，金属价格普遍走低，原因是有消息称，中国官员要求部分银行在4月底前停止发放贷款，此举被公认是中国经济可能很快减速的又一迹象。其实在此之前，铜、镍、铅和其他部分商品已经开始走低，有的已经下跌了几个月之久。镍是2003年全球最为炙手可热的商品之一，但其价格已经从今年年初的每吨逾17,000美元跌至11,200美元左右。
这并不意味著对原材料的需求大幅下降或是价格很快就将暴跌。但的确有越来越多的分析师和交易员担心商品价格的上扬势头已经失去了动力，甚至已经结束。至少，他们预计，受对经济前景担忧情绪的影响，商品价格将更为动荡。 澳洲联邦银行(Commonwealth Bank of Australia, CBA.AU)驻悉尼商品策略师大卫?瑟泰尔(David Thurtell)说，人们对商品价格可能达到的高度和维持在高位的时间应该更加谨慎一些。商品价格的最高点可能已经出现。
中国在其中发挥著不容忽视的作用。如果中国经济降温，其对原材料的巨大需求在明年就会明显缓解。中国政府已经表示，希望减少钢铁等资源依赖型行业的投资。
但即使中国经济依然快速增长，还有其他力量可能给市场带来压力。最大的因素是：许多采矿公司开始增加产量，这一般是商业周期转变的有力迹象。根据美林(Merrill Lynch)的数据，大多数商品市场的繁荣期会持续约30个月，而且是由需求意外增长引发的，通常令供应商猝不及防。随后，具有吸引力的价格使生产商感到，投资扩充产能有利可图。
这样一来，新增供应就会减轻价格方面的压力。而由于新矿需要数年才能完全投产，在经济周期高峰期进行的扩建常常在几年后才能使价格持平或走低。
目前的扩建计划接踵而至。比如，英国－澳大利亚矿业公司Rio Tinto PLC在澳大利亚昆士兰的一个煤矿近期开始试运行，预计年产炼焦煤550万吨。这座煤矿原定于上世纪90年代末开发，但管理层将其一直推迟到市场状况好转之后。目前，Rio Tinto正在考虑加快该项目下一阶段的进度，使该矿的年产量达到800万吨。
同样大举扩充产能的还有BHP Billiton Ltd.。该公司上月宣布，将投资8.7亿美元扩大智利Escondida铜矿的产量。这项扩建计划将使该铜矿的年产量增加18万吨。该公司还在实施一个14亿美元的项目，其中包括开发位于西澳大利亚的Ravensthorpe镍矿，使其每年的镍产量到2007年增加约45,000吨。
尽管产能扩大会带来价格的下跌，但这些公司扩大产能却不一定是盲目的投资。产量增加将使Rio Tinto和BHP Billiton等大公司在今后几年扩大市场占有率。部分大公司表示，他们最新启动的项目在多年前就列入计划，而且在某种程度上，这些新矿的产量仅能满足当前的需求，而不是今后可能增加的需求。 尽管如此，许多经济学家仍认为这些项目显示了商业周期的变化。这些项目也会给近几个月来的某些恐慌性买盘降温，这些买盘是由于部分终端用户担心铜、镍或铁矿石的供应短缺引发的。
与此同时，除了这些新增项目外，还有一些因素可能导致产量的增加。暂时的供应中断是造成2003年年末和2004年年初商品价格大幅上扬的原因之一，这一问题已经逐步得到了解决。山体滑坡导致了美国Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.旗下印尼Grasberg铜矿的产量大幅下降。在加拿大，为期三周的工人罢工导致Falconbridge Ltd.旗下的Sudbury镍矿停产。
随著对冲基金和其他投机人士失去兴趣，商品价格的下跌压力可能加重。例如，澳洲联邦银行的瑟泰尔说，对冲基金发现，美元一旦下跌油价往往就会上涨，因而利用石油来对冲美元风险。铜等其他商品也是遵循这种模式。
但美元近期收复部分失地，这可能导致对冲基金退出市场。花旗集团(Citigroup)分析师在近期给客户的研究报告中称，流入金属市场的投机资金数量可能在第四季度达到顶峰，导致了商品价格波动幅度的加大。 当然，也有一些因素可能会推动价格再度上行。比如，如果日本经济加速增长，新增需求可能会助商品价格一臂之力。
一些分析师认为，即使中国经济降温，最新增加的矿产量也不足以满足其需求。香港贸易公司来宝集团(Noble Group Ltd., N09.SG)的行政总裁艾礼文(Richard Elman)说，他仍认为铁矿石短缺的情况会持续18个月。
但就连艾礼文也不愿断定商品价格将走高。他和其他人表示，他们认为商品价格今后一段时间内将在接近目前价位的水平上波动，但震荡幅度将加大。
瑟泰尔预计，价格在今后几个季度里仍将维持相对高位，但走高的可能性不大，甚至可能出现小幅下跌。
