Meeker Opines on China
She's back. Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley's Internet-stock analyst, once dubbed "Queen of the Net" for her bullish stock calls, has turned her attention to China, a place that evokes a sense of dot-com deja vu.
In Shanghai, a flurry of excitement is building for Chinese Internet companies with business models ranging from sending jokes to cellphones and connecting gamers in virtual sword-fighting battles. A spate of public offerings will soon have eight Chinese Internet companies trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market.
"It is an irony that a few years ago some folks thought the Internet was over -- well, it has just started, and it is not all made in America," Ms. Meeker writes in a 217-page report released earlier this week. In her report, however, she raises concerns about the potential for a bubble, saying Morgan Stanley came away "with a powerful sense of awe and enthusiasm about the opportunities, but also concerned about the many risks."
In the U.S., Ms. Meeker grabbed headlines for her bullish calls on highflying technology stocks, from America Online to HomeGrocer.com. However, unlike other analysts who came under fire for their bold calls, she wasn't charged with any securities-law violations. Over the past year or so she has been keeping a low profile.
"The fact that she is reappearing seems to be reflective of the rather weird times that we are living in, in terms of the desperate search from investors for the next free lunch," says Henry Hu, a corporate and securities-law professor at the University of Texas at Austin.
In a report released this week titled "China Internet Report," Ms. Meeker says "investors still underestimate the impact the Internet will have in changing business process and consumer behavior on a global basis -- and we believe that China is emerging as a market that helps prove this point."
If that sounds just a bit less bullish than her assessment of the U.S. Internet companies, it may be because she wrote the report along with Morgan's China economist, Andy Xie. Mr. Xie is a vocal bear on China's Internet stocks -- and a bit of a media darling himself, these days -- who warns that China Internet investments are quite speculative, and could become victims of a growing bubble in other areas of the Chinese economy.
"The Chinese Internet is different from overlaying the Internet on a mature economy," says Mr. Xie. "At this very early stage, we don't really know what are the stable business models, or the characteristics of a winner," he says. Ms. Meeker and Mr. Xie agree that the sector needs stability before it can be valued beyond speculation, he says.
The recent surge in Chinese Internet stocks, says Mr. Xie, comes from U.S. investors. "It is very hard for us to understand what they are thinking so far away," he says. Ms. Meeker says she agrees, adding that for investors the total market value of the Chinese Internet market is undervalued relative to its long-term value. But Chinese Internet stocks, she argues, aren't nearly as highly overvalued right now as the ones that fed the Internet bubble in 2000. "The overall market opportunity from the Internet in China will prove to be quite significant over time," she says. Moreover, she's turned to China to prove her long-term theories about how the Internet will change business -- especially through economies of scale, provided here by China's 1.3 billion potential consumers.
"One of the elegant things about the Internet is that you can get a little bit of money from a lot of people. That can create a pretty compelling business model," Ms. Meeker says.
In her report, Ms. Meeker doesn't tout any individual stocks.
Ms. Meeker says simple math points to revenue growth, even for companies following some of the same paths as U.S dot-coms, such as online advertising and e-commerce. "If Internet user growth in China continues to grow at 30%, and usage grows higher as broadband becomes more pervasive, it's fair to say the revenue growth from Internet companies should at least be commensurate," she says.
Ten-year veteran Chinese technology analyst Duncan Clark couldn't squeeze Ms. Meeker's thick report down through his Internet connection. But from the portions he read, the managing director of BDA China took issue with her assumptions that business models which have sustained U.S. dot-coms in the could work in China. "E-commerce can be a great window, but can you collect? Now people are using sites just to say 'let's meet at this street to pay each other off,' " says Mr. Clark.
Ms. Meeker says that there is some need to curb the zeal, and she doesn't want to become a scapegoat if people lose money in the short-term on Chinese stocks. "The bottom line is that the onus is on the investors to do the filtering process and set the valuation appropriately. Our hope is that investors are more prudent about that than they were in the 1999 to 2000 period," she says.
"网络女王"看上中国市场
曾被誉为"网络女王"的摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)前互联网类股分析师玛丽?米克(Mary Meeker)已将她的注意力转向了中国，但怀疑者说，她恰好赶上了中国土生土长的互联网泡沫。
对于一些投资者来说，上海出现的dot-com热潮似曾相识，中国互联网公司有的将向手机用户发送笑话当作自己的业务模式，有的则向客户接入虚拟的网络游戏，他们各个都喜不胜收。伴随著最近一轮首次公开募股交易热潮，很快将有八家中国互联网公司在那斯达克市场上市。
美国的互联网泡沫于2000年破灭后，米克也已风光不再，而且人们还指责她对互联网类股作了过分宣传。然而，凭借周三公布的厚厚一份"中国互联网报告"，米克又重出江湖了，她在报告中声称，投资者对互联网在改变全球商业进程和消费者行为方面所发挥的影响仍然估计不足，并相信中国市场正在印证她的这一观点。
如果这一报告中透露出的乐观情绪略逊于米克1999年前后对美国互联网业的判断的话，这可能是因为米克现在变得更谨慎了，也可能是因为她不得不与摩根士丹利的中国经济问题专家谢国忠(Andy Xie)一起来撰写这份报告。谢国忠一直在唱衰中国的互联网类股。最近较爱在媒体露面的谢国忠警告说，中国的互联网投资太具投机性，在中国其他一些经济领域的泡沫成分正不断加大的背景下，中国互联网业有可能成为牺牲品。 谢国忠说，中国的互联网公司并非是在一个成熟的经济体中开展互联网业务，当此中国的互联网业刚具雏形之际， 人们真的不知道什么是稳定的业务模式，也不知道业内赢家应具备哪些特点。他说，只有中国的互联网业步入稳定发展阶段，人们才能对它作出恰如其分的评估。
谢国忠说，推动中国互联网类股最近大幅飙升的是美国投资者，真不理解这些远隔重洋的人是怎么想的。米克说她吸收了谢国忠的观点，并在其报告中将这列作了一种参考意见。但她同时声称，中国互联网类股目前的高估情况还没有达到美国同类股票2000年时的程度。
她坚持说，随著时间的推移，中国互联网业的市场机会肯定会十分可观。此外，米克也将其有关互联网会如何改变商业运作(特别是通过规模经济方式)的长期理论拿到中国来作印证，中国有多达13亿的潜在消费者，是实现规模经济的好地方。
米克说，互联网业的一个迷人之处在于，可供你从他身上赚点小钱的人比比皆是。她承认，中国多数人都不富余，但也没穷到互联网公司无法从他们身上赚钱的地步。她谈到了盛大交互娱乐有限公司(Shanda Interactive Entertainment)等中国网络游戏公司获得的初步成功，通过向接入其网络游戏的客户一次收取几美分的接入费，盛大的老板已经跻身中国富豪之列。
米克认为，在中国这个人口规模庞大的市场，就是简简单单的业务也能赚钱，企业即使只重复美国互联网公司的一些老路，如提供网上广告和电子商务服务，也仍然有利可图。她说，如果中国的互联网用户继续以30%的速度增长（而且宽频的普及肯定会推动上网人数的增长），互联网公司的收入增幅少说也能达到同一水平。
并非所有的人都同意这一观点。从事中国科技产业分析已达十年之久的BDA China董事总经理邓肯?克拉克(Duncan Clark)就有不同看法，他不同意米克关于支撑美国互联网公司发展的业务模式也同样适用于中国的观点。克拉克说，电子商务确实商机无限，但你能从中赚到钱吗？现在人们上网只是为了说一句"街上见，到时一手交钱一手交货。"克拉克承认，凭自己的上网条件还无法把米克长达217页的报告下载完。
克拉克说，为了印证中国互联网类股的光明前景，米克也加入了那些出于各自不同目的而"重新发现"了中国的人之列。他说，中国是一面镜子，各个时代人们想要的东西都能在它这里得到反映。克拉克说他不想写关于中国的书，但却想为那些写有关中国的书的人立传。
米克承认，需要抑制一下对中国互联网类股的热情，而且这次她也不想因为人们投资中国股票短期内赔了钱而受到指责。但她表示，投资者接受她建议的最低前提条件是，他们应能在众多股票中去芜取菁，并对股票作出适当的估价。她说，希望投资者对互联网类股的态度比1999到2000 年期间更谨慎一些。
但米克过去的那种乐观情绪在她的研究报告中仍然随处可见。她写道，几年前有人认为互联网业完蛋了，这真是笑话，事实上，互联网业的好日子才刚开始，在这方面美国公
