Investment Banking Catches Fire in Asia
The good times are here again.
After three years of declining business and plummeting fees, investment bankers in Asia are now celebrating a resurgence of capital-markets activity across the region.
Equity issues have returned with a vengeance, while the issuance of debt securities remains strong and the number of mergers and acquisitions is growing in countries from China to Thailand. Bankers say they are amazed at how quickly business has rebounded after last year's outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome brought an already sluggish industry to a standstill.
"We see the wind at our backs across all products," says Todd Marin, co-head of investment banking in the Asian-Pacific region for J.P. Morgan Chase & Co here. "There's a return of confidence globally. Companies are now taking opportunities given that interest rates are low and the markets are receptive."
The increase in business activity means bankers are putting in longer hours, traveling more and receiving a lot more visits from counterparts in New York.
A typical day for Colin Banfield, head of M&A for non-Japan Asia at Credit Suisse First Boston LLC, starts here at 7 a.m. with a phone call to New York and ends, if he's lucky, at midnight with another call to New York. He's on the road four-and-a-half days a week. Next week he's off to Seoul, where he'll host a video conference between clients and CSFB executives in New York at 3 a.m., Seoul time.
When he is in the office in Hong Kong, Mr. Banfield is usually meeting with CSFB bankers from the U.S. who are in the region for business. He says all of CSFB's global product heads have been to Asia since the start of the year, as well as the heads of investment banking for the U.S. and Europe. Many of the bank heads pass through Hong Kong en route to China.
"In terms of intensity, it's really increased in the first quarter of this year, and it shows no signs of abating," says Mr. Banfield. "People are much more mobile now," he adds, noting that it's a big difference from last year when SARS kept bankers "rooted to Hong Kong."
According to financial-data provider Thomson Financial, the volume of equity issues during the first quarter in Asia, excluding Japan, was a record US$19.24 billion, nearly 10 times the US$1.85 billion of equity issued in the first quarter of 2003 during the height of SARS. Some analysts forecast that equity capital raised in Asia this year, ex-Japan, could surpass the record US$40 billion set in 2000.
Despite the strong return of equities, a low interest-rate environment world-wide has helped buoy debt markets in Asia. In the first three months of this year, the value of bonds issued in Asia ex-Japan in dollars, yen or marks totaled US$9.41 billion, up 50% from US$6.27 billion a year earlier, according to Thomson Financial. Many analysts forecast that the value of debt issues this year could match the record levels reached in 2003 -- minus the US$9.5 billion of bonds issued last year by Hong Kong conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., which has interests from ports to telecommunications.
Several mergers and acquisitions that were delayed last year because of SARS are now being pushed out the door. In the first quarter, the value of announced mergers and acquisitions in Asia, ex-Japan, rose to US$24.49 billion, up 61% from US$15.20 billion in the previous corresponding period in 2003, data from Thomson shows. The number of M&A transactions announced in the region rose 15% in the first quarter to 1,391 compared with 1,209 the first quarter last year.
"But for a few specific sectors, Asian markets have been under enormous pressure since the financial crisis in 1997," says Richard Gnodde, president of Goldman Sachs Asia. "People sometimes forget that. What this has done has created an enormous pent-up demand which will be unleashed given current strong economic conditions."
Already, 2004 has produced some notable deals, such as the US$2.71 billion acquisition of Korea's sixth-largest lender, KorAm Bank, by Citigroup Inc., which represents a record foreign direct investment in Korea. The first quarter also saw Indonesia's government return to the international debt market for the first time since the 1997-98 financial crisis, issuing a US$1 billion 10-year bond.
China continued to dominate equity markets with initial public offerings of shares of varying sizes, including the US$1.8 billion IPO of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., China's biggest chip maker, and the US$28 million IPO of China Green Holdings Ltd., a tiny vegetable producer whose IPO was nevertheless 1,600 times subscribed by retail investors, a record for the Hong Kong stock exchange. (See related article.)
The increase in business has brought a huge relief for bankers: higher fees. Banks have collected more fees as more deals have been done, of course; financial-data provider Dealogic says fees from equity deals in the first quarter totaled US$1.1 billion, nearly four times the US$279 million a year ago. But bankers also say they are winning a higher percentage of each transaction's value -- rising to 4% or 5% of an initial public offering from as low as 2% to 3% in recent years. While that's still below the 7% banks in the U.S. earn on such deals, it's a positive improvement. Debt fees, such as those on 10-year-bonds, still range around 0.3% to 0.5% of an issue's value, bankers say.
Much of the extra money is being used for targeted hiring and to boost staff around the region, bankers say. Several banks report hiring is now picking up following massive layoffs during the past three years.
Still, it hasn't all been positive. With presidential or parliamentary elections in six Asian economies this year, political change or turmoil could derail, at least temporarily, some deals in the region. The political strife that followed elections in Taiwan and Korea roiled financial markets across Asia and stalled some transactions, particularly M&A deals, bankers say.
Also, retail investor sentiment toward China has cooled in recent weeks as scandals have erupted at companies such as China Life Insurance Co., the country's largest life insurer, and China Minsheng Banking Corp., China's only nominally private bank. The downturn of investor enthusiasm has resulted in several recent IPOs of Chinese companies performing poorly -- shares of SMIC fell 9% on their first day of trading March 18, while shares of Chinese Internet company Tom Online Inc. fell 7% on their March 11 debut in Hong Kong.
Bankers say they remain optimistic about this year. With interest rates expected to stay relatively low globally, the economic output of Asia, ex-Japan, as a region forecast to grow 7%, and several multibillion IPOs slated to be issued from China, bankers say it is shaping up to be a record year in this part of the world. Many bankers say they expect retail enthusiasm for China plays to return in coming months when big companies with appropriate valuations come to market.
亚洲投资银行活动如火如荼
好日子又回来了。
在经历了三年的业务下滑和费率骤减之后，亚洲的投资银行业开始为全地区资本市场的复苏欢欣鼓舞。
市场重新掀起股票发行热潮，同时债券的发行依然强劲，从中国到泰国等地的并购案不断增加。银行业人士称，他们对业务复苏如此迅速感到惊讶。在去年非典型肺炎(SARS)疫情爆发之后，本已疲弱的亚洲投资银行业陷入停滞。
摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co)亚太区投资银行业务联席负责人马宏涛(Todd Marin)称，公司所有产品都获得了提振，全球商业信心得到恢复。各公司现在纷纷抓住利率低且市场人气有利的机会拓展资本市场活动。 业务活动的增长意味著银行家们不得不通宵达旦地工作，进行更多的商务旅行，接待更多纽约同行的来访。
瑞士信贷第一波士顿(Credit Suisse First Boston LLC,)除日本之外的亚洲并购部主管科林?班菲尔德(Colin Banfield)的一天通常是这样度过的：早上7点给纽约打一个电话，如果他幸运的话，半夜时还要再打一次电话。他一周中有4天半的时间是在路上。下周他要去汉城，在当地时间上午3点主持客户与公司在纽约总部的管理人士之间的一个视频会议。
当班菲尔德在香港的办公室时，他通常要接待美国总部来这出差的同事。他说，自今年年初以来，公司所有的全球产品主管及美欧的投资银行业务负责人都来过亚洲。许多管理人士都途经香港到中国大陆访问。 班菲尔德表示，今年第一季度管理层的到访有所升温，而且并无减退迹象。他补充说，银行家们的外出次数大大增加了，这和去年的情形大相径庭，当时，SARS的爆发使得大家都困在香港。
Thomson Financial的数据显示，今年第一季度不包括日本在内的亚洲股票发行规模达到192.4亿美元的历史最高水平，几乎是去年第一季度SARS高峰期时18.5亿美元的10倍。一些分析师预测，今年不含日本在内的亚洲股票发行筹资总额可能突破2000年创下的400亿美元的历史高点。
尽管股票发行活动强劲反弹，全球的低利率仍使得亚洲的债券市场蒸蒸日上。Thomson Financial称，今年前三个月，除日本以外亚洲的债券发行规模总计为94.1亿美元，较上年同期的62.7亿美元增长50%。许多分析师预计，今年的债券发行额可能达到去年的历史最高水平（减去去年香港和记黄埔(Hutchison Whampoa Ltd.)发行的95亿美元债券)。
去年因SARS推迟的并购活动现在又重新启动。Thomson shows的资料显示，今年第一季度，除日本以外亚洲已宣布的并购金额由去年同期的152亿美元增至244.9亿美元；并购交易数量由1,209例增至1,391例。
高盛亚洲(Goldman Sachs Asia)总裁罗以德(Richard Gnodde)称，而对于一些特定行业，亚洲市场自1997年金融危机以来一直遭受沉重压力，但这有时会被人遗忘。在当前强劲的经济形势下，被压抑许久的大量需求就会爆发出来。
2004年，一些引人注目的并购交易已经浮出水面，如花旗集团(Citigroup Inc)以27.1亿美元收购韩国第六大贷款行KorAm Bank，这是韩国有史以来规模最大的外商直接投资。在第一季度，印尼政府自1997-98年金融危机之后首次回归国际债券市场，发行10亿美元的10年期债券。
中国继续以大大小小规模不等的IPO活动主导股票市场，包括中国最大的晶片生产商中芯国际(Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp.)18亿美元的IPO； 中国绿色食品(控股)有限公司(China Green Holdings Ltd.) 2,800万美元的IPO，此次IPO获得散户投资者1,600倍认购，创下香港联交所的最高纪录。
业务增长给了使银行家们莫大的安慰，因为银行的收费大为改观。诚然，随著更多交易的完成，各银行收取的费用也大大增加；Dealogic的数据表明，今年第一季度各投资银行来自股票发行交易的收费累计为11亿美元，近乎去年同期2.79亿美元的4倍。但是，银行家们还表示，他们收取的费率也有所提高，占每项IPO价值的比例由近年来2%-3%的低点上升至4%-5%。虽然这仍低于美国市场7%的水平，但毕竟已有所改善。债券承销费率（如10年期债券）仍为发行规模的0.3%至0.5%。
银行家们称，大部分增加的收入用于招聘新人，以提高亚洲地区的员工数量。一些银行公布，在过去3年大幅裁员之后，目前招聘活动开始恢复。
不过，并非一切消息都是积极的。今年亚洲有6个国家和地区要进行大选或议会选举，政局变化或动荡可能会使得该地区的一些交易陷入停顿，至少暂时如此。银行家称，台湾和韩国选举后的政治冲突扰乱了全亚洲的金融市场，使一些交易，尤其是并购交易搁浅。
此外，随著中国最大的寿险公司中国人寿(China Life Insurance Co.)和唯一一家名义上的民营银行民生银行(China Minsheng Banking Corp.)爆出丑闻，散户投资者对中国概念股的热情最近几周有所降温。投资者人气减弱导致最近发行的几只中国概念股表现欠佳：中芯国际在3月18日上市首日下跌9%，中国互联网公司Tom Online Inc.于香港市场3月11日首日上市下跌7%。
银行家们表示，他们仍对今年前景十分乐观。由于预计全球利率仍维持在较低水平，除日本以外亚洲经济有望增长7%，而且中国还有几项规模高达数十亿美元的IPO计划，这些积极因素都将得亚洲的投行活动成为创纪录的一年。许多银行家预计，当几个月后估值合理的大公司发行新股时，散户投资者对中国公司股票的热情将会被重新激发出来。
