Banks Skirt China's Credit Crackdown
Glass skyscrapers still are rising from this city's construction pits. Scores of cement, automobile and steel plants are in expansion mode. China's red-hot economy doesn't look like one that is cooling, despite the toughest credit crackdown in a decade.
Xue Zhongze is a small reason why. Mr. Xue, chief executive of Shanxi Yinxin Iron & Steel Co. in northern Hejin city, is borrowing more money. He is awaiting a $7 million loan from the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China to boost production of pig iron, a material used in making steel. Mr. Xue already owes $3 million to the bank.
"Everything is going as scheduled," he says of the $7 million loan. "The government is warning about the risks, but I don't think they would do anything to kill us."
In meetings last month, officials strengthened a credit clampdown on the property, cement and steel sectors. Government teams have been visiting bank branches to demand they adhere to stricter lending criteria. Last week, financial regulators ordered banks not to allow property loans to exceed 30% of outstanding credit and have vowed tougher checks for personal mortgages. China's central bank has announced a goal for overall loans to rise 16% this year, compared with the 21% surge in 2003. Even China's premier, Wen Jiabao, has warned about the risks of excessive lending and "blind investment."
But it continues.
From big cities to obscure towns, Chinese companies are quietly bucking Beijing's efforts to rein in credit. Local governments eager to maintain fast growth and job creation, and banks eager to lend, are undermining a centerpiece of a campaign to slow the economy and avoid the pitfalls of fast growth.
The upshot: China's economy appears likely to continue its rapid clip, after a blistering 9.1% growth in 2003, analysts say.
In Shanghai, government-run banks are proving willing partners as property developers skirt tough lending criteria. China Construction Bank, one of the country's four biggest commercial banks, is issuing bridge loans -- linked to previous projects -- if a developer doesn't have a full set of permits for a new project. One recent loan to a developer was issued without any of four required permits, according to a credit officer at Construction Bank.
"If we don't do it, others will," said the Shanghai-based bank executive. "We can't afford to lose our most important customers."
Market pressures are causing a big shift from a decade ago. Unlike the mid-1990s, when China's leaders strictly enforced Draconian credit controls to cool inflation that at some times topped 20% a year, the central bank has much less control over lending these days. State-run banks now act more independently and are less willing to sacrifice sources of anticipated profit.
Whether Chinese leaders can curb runaway lending has major implications for other countries. To feed its factories and run its many new cars, China is importing record amounts of oil. Its demand for iron ore, copper and other raw materials has soared and so have prices. Asian nations such as Japan and South Korea have been riding rocketing exports to China for more than a year.
Credit is fueling the cycle of investment and consumption. China's total bank lending is off from peak levels in mid-2003, but still is rising at more than a 20% annual clip. China's total investment last year approached nearly half of gross domestic product, a level not seen in decades -- possibly since the boom and disastrous bust of the Great Leap Forward, according to Nicholas Lardy, a China scholar at the Institute for International Economics, a Washington think tank.
The investment has underpinned an explosion in the number of new companies. China now has about 100 automobile makers, or about three for every province and autonomous region. The country has more cement plants -- 4,813 -- than the rest of the world combined. One-third of the world's steelmakers are in China.
In northern Hebei province, which has 200 steel factories, local officials want to find more capital for their companies so they can get bigger and survive an industry shakeout. Song Jijun, secretary general of the Hebei provincial Metallurgy Industrial Association, says small Chinese steelmakers specialize in low-tech steel products. "If Hebei cuts back on steel production, the construction industry would need to seek supplies overseas," he says.
China is starting to pay for its galloping growth. The drain on resources is causing electricity shortages, supply bottlenecks and inflation. The benchmark consumer price index rose 3.2% in January from a year earlier. Longer term, China's banks increasingly are exposed to industries that have way too many companies and too much capacity.
"Best way forward for the government is to bring credit growth under control before the waste of resources goes even further," warns Mr. Lardy, the China scholar.
Beijing's steps to tamp down credit expansion are bearing some fruit, as the older brother of Mr. Xue, the Hejin iron maker, recently discovered. Trying to ensure a steady power supply to his own pig-iron factory, Xue Yongze asked for a loan to build an electricity plant, but he was turned down, with bank executives even refusing to review his application.
"They told me the government is not going to support industries like this," the elder Mr. Xue recalled.
Still, Beijing is mindful of the stakes of an economic hard landing. The central bank has resisted the more drastic step of raising interest rates, in part to prevent its currency from appreciating and endangering the prospects for its rural poor to find jobs in factories that rely on price-sensitive exports. The government's attachment to a stable exchange rate is like "a straitjacket" on monetary policy, said Goldman Sachs economist Hong Liang, preventing a true tightening of credit. (See related article.)
Yet departing from current policies -- even problematic ones -- is risky, officials say. If credit is tightened too much, growth could slow abruptly, unemployment could surge and spark social instability, and banks could see a new round of bad loans as some borrowers run into trouble.
"The central government has shown strong concern about overheating," said a senior official at the National Development Reform Commission, a policy-making body in Beijing. "That doesn't mean we are going to take strong action."
中国紧缩信贷政策无形遭削弱
一座座玻璃外墙的摩天大厦在上海的建筑工地上拔地而起。水泥、轿车、钢铁企业仍在扩大生产。尽管央行本次收缩信贷力度为10年来最严格的一次，但中国火爆的经济增长势头似乎并没有减缓的迹象。
薛众泽(Xue Zhongze, 音译)或能为说明这背后的原因。薛众泽是山西省河津市北部的山西银鑫钢铁有限公司(Shanxi Yinxin Iron & Steel Co.)的总经理。他准备向银行借更多的钱，现在他正等待中国工商银行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China)批准他的700万美元贷款申请。他准备用贷款来扩建生铁生产线。此前，他已从中国工商银行获得了300万美元的贷款。
他在谈到700万美元的贷款时表示："一切都在按计划进行。政府虽然警告某些经济领域存在过热风险，但我想政府不会做出任何妨碍企业生存的事情来。"
在2月份的工作会议上，中国政府要求严格控制对房地产、水泥和钢铁行业的信贷发放。政府工作小组多次检查各商业银行的工作，要求他们执行更为严格的信贷条例。上周，金融监管机构颁布条例，要求银行的地产业贷款占其已发放贷款总量的比例不得超过30%，并且要求银行在向个人发放住宅抵押贷款时进行更为严格的审查。中国央行宣布今年的贷款总量增长目标为16%，低于2003年的21%的增幅。甚至就连中国总理温家宝都对信贷的过度发放和盲目投资提出了警告。
但一切仍照旧进行。
从大城市到边远的城镇，中国企业界仍在迫切地寻求获得贷款。地方政府急需维持经济的快速增长和创造新的就业机会，银行迫切地希望把资金发放出去，这些都削弱了中国政府控制信贷发放的种种努力。中国政府希望用控制信贷来放缓经济增长，避免因经济过热给国民经济造成的负面冲击。
结果是：分析师们预计继2003年增长9.1%之后中国经济有望继续快速增长。
在上海，国有银行愿意向那些希望规避严格的信贷规定的地产开发商提供便利。如果地产开发商的新房开工许可证不够齐全，中国四大国有银行之一的中国建设银行(China Construction Bank)可以向他们提供桥梁贷款。据建设银行一位主管信贷工作的管理人士表示，该行最近曾向一家"四证"并不齐全的地产开发商提供了贷款。
这位上海的管理人士表示："即便我们不给他们贷款，别的银行也会这样做的。我们可不希望失去这些最重要的客户。"
市场压力使得监管发放贷款与10年前相比出现了巨大的转变。1990年代中期，中国政府为了平抑一度高达20%的年通货膨胀率而对信贷发放进行了严格控制。不过，此一时彼一时，中国央行如今在监督发放贷款方面的控制力不如从前。现在，国有银行在发放贷款方面有了更多的自主权，他们不愿放弃潜在的获利来源。 中国领导人能否控制信贷的过度发放对于其他国家来说具有重要影响。为了维持工厂的正常运转以及为猛增的机动车提供燃料，中国进口的原油数量创下历史新高。另外，中国对铁矿、铜矿和其他原材料的需求激增导致这些商品的价格随之飙升。日本和韩国等亚洲国家对华出口迅猛增长的势头已经持续了一年多的时间。
信贷增长在加速中国的投资和消费循环。尽管中国银行业的贷款总量已从2003年中期的峰值有所滑落，但仍在以超过20%（折合成年率）的速度增长。去年，中国的总投资额几乎占到了国内生产总值(GDP)的一半。华盛顿智囊团国际经济研究所(Institute for International Economics)的中国问题学者尼古拉斯?拉迪(Nicholas Lardy)认为，这一比例之高是几十年来从未有过的，也可能是灾难性的"大跃进"后比例最高的一次。
投资的增长带动新企业犹如雨后春笋般地冒出来。中国现有约100家汽车生产商，几乎每3个省及自治区就有一家汽车制造商。中国现有4,813家水泥厂，竟然比全球其他国家水泥厂数量的总和还要多。另外，全球三分之一的钢铁厂在中国。
光在河北省北部地区就有200家钢铁厂。当地官员希望为本地企业注入更多的资金，以便它们能够扩大规模、在产业整合中生存下来。河北省冶金业协会的秘书长宋吉军(Song Jijun, 音译)表示，中国小型钢铁制造商从事的是科技含量低的钢材的生产。他表示，如果河北省压缩钢产量，那么建筑行业就得从国外进口钢材。
中国正在为经济的飞速发展付出代价。资源的枯竭造成电力短缺、供给遇到瓶颈和通货膨胀增长。今年1月份中国的消费者价格指数比上年同期上涨了3.2%。长远来讲，中国的银行因那些企业数量过多、产能过剩的产业而面临越来越大的风险。
拉迪警告说，对于中国政府来说，发展的最佳途径便是在资源浪费的现象进一步恶化之前就控制住信贷的增长。 不过，薛众泽的哥哥薛永泽(Xue Yongze, 音译)最近发现，中国政府控制信贷发放的努力正在收到成效。为了确保他家的生铁厂获得稳定的电力供应，薛永泽向银行申请贷款以兴建一座发电厂。但他的请求遭到回绝，银行的管理人士根本没有考虑他的申请。
薛永泽称，银行的管理人士对他说，政府不会支持向电力等产业发放贷款。
不过，中国对防止经济硬著陆显得十分谨慎。中国央行并没有采取上调利率这种更激进的做法，部分原因是防止人民币升值，并给农民工在出口企业中就业带来负面影响。高盛的经济学家梁红认为，中国政府坚持人民币汇率稳定的固执立场使得货币政策的作用受到限制，阻碍了信贷的真正收缩。 中国官员们表示，当前政策实施不当也存在风险，甚至有可能出现问题。如果政府收缩信贷的力度过大，有可能导致经济增长突然放缓，下岗人数猛增，引起社会动荡；还可能使一些贷款企业陷入困境，从而导致银行出现新的大批坏帐。
中国国家发展和改革委员会(National Development Reform Commission)的一位高级官员表示，"中央政府已对经济过热表示了严重的关切。但这并不意味著我们将采取强硬行动。"
