The Ripple Effect
Tobias Baer, a consultant for McKinsey & Co. in Taiwan, couldn't figure out why his stake in a Chinese farming stock wouldn't stop growing last year. In only eight months, his shares in Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Ltd. doubled, then tripled to about 40 cents a share.
By December, spooked by the volatility, Mr. Baer bailed out of Chaoda and flipped into companies in South Korea and Japan. "When you see a very big jump in the stock price it is hard to know what has happened," says Mr. Baer. "Everybody is so excited about China that I was worried it was developing like the dot-com bubble and that made me nervous."
Last year, China was one of the most exciting stories for investors. In 2003, the Morgan Stanley Capital International China Index jumped 81%. This year, with China expected to record some of the highest gross-domestic-product growth in the world-more than 8%-investors are again looking for ways to ride that expansion. But there are concerns that the market is overheating, with some analysts looking at companies riding the China wave outside the country as a more stable investment alternative.
Investing in China isn't for the squeamish. In the past decade, there have been three booms and busts in the market: in 1993 and 1994, when the first China stocks listed in Hong Kong; in 1996 and 1997, when Hong Kong's so-called "red chip" shares were exposed to the China market; and then in 1999 and 2000, when some China technology and telecommunications stocks quadrupled in value before crashing. Some analysts are concerned that the current boom may again be pushing China share prices too high. Other than the growing number of telecommunications and oil stocks, most of the companies that make up the benchmark Chinese indexes are trading at more than 20 times last year's earnings, which is a little expensive for an unpredictable emerging market, analysts say.
"China is a dominant theme globally but a lot of stocks have already reflected it," says Bob Yerbury, chief investment officer at investment-management group Invesco U.K. "You have to be very careful when one is picking to play the China theme."
Across Asia, companies are reaping profits as China's growth spurs demand for everything from steel to computer chips to cellphones. Analysts at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong have been monitoring a watch list of more than 100 companies in the Asian-Pacific region that are either making money from growing demand in China or saving money by moving operations there to take advantage of the low-cost labor. When Goldman Sachs' analysts ran the numbers on these China-play stocks late last year, they found better value in many of these shares than were in many Chinese companies. "There are an amazing amount of indirect beneficiaries helped by exports [to China] and domestic demand there," says Nilesh Jasani, strategist at HSBC Securities Asia in Hong Kong. "The most interesting stories lie in the indirect beneficiaries."
So how do you determine what local companies are well positioned to benefit from the China boom? Companies that are already profiting from China's growth can be broken down into three areas: those providing the raw materials China needs to grow; those providing the equipment China needs to build its factories and telecommunications networks; and companies that sell products and services to the increasingly affluent Chinese consumer. "The China theme means looking for things that China needs," says Jonathan Schiessl, a Channel Island-based manager of one of last year's best performing Asian mutual funds, the Ashburton Asia Pacific Fund. "Any stock that has exposure to China has served us very well."
"Imports [into China] are growing at 30% a year," says Joe Zhang, head of China research at UBS in Hong Kong. "That's raw materials and machinery but it is also Gucci and Chanel and even the ordinary-cheese from New Zealand and French wine."
In terms of raw materials, China's seemingly insatiable demand has had a powerful effect on global commodity prices. In the past 12 months, for example, the Dow Jones AIG Commodities Index rose 17%. Companies that deal in commodities with China are reaping the rewards. Profit at South Korean steel giant Posco Co., for example, surged 80% to $1.7 billion last year as demand from China boosted its order books and bolstered steel prices around the globe.
As new apartments, office buildings, highways, ports and railways are built to meet increasing demand, China is importing machinery from companies such as Japan's Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. and boosting the business of Taiwanese shipping company Yang Ming Marine Transport Corp., analysts say.
Chinese consumers are also making waves as they travel more, eat out more, and buy more cellphones and cars. Companies tapping into this growing demand include Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. and hotels managed by Hong Kong's Shangri-La Asia Ltd., as well as casinos run by Resorts World Bhd. in Malaysia. In Singapore, snack food company Want Want Holdings Ltd., gets 87% of its sales in China: Its profit rose 46% in the first three quarters of last year to $26 million thanks to rising demand in China for its rice crackers and beverages. Other companies on the China-play list include Samsung Electronics Co. in South Korea, which sells cellphones in China; Tong Yang Industry Co., which sells auto parts; and Toyota Motor Corp., which sells cars. "Some of these companies have over 10% of their global revenues from China already," says Mr. Zhang.
Of course, investing in shares with exposure to a growing China is no guarantee of profit. China's growth could slow, companies could develop problems in their non-China related businesses, or valuations could tumble if the outlook on global growth soured. Still, buying a China play in your own backyard is a good way to get exposure to growth while still being able to maintain a close watch on performance, analysts say.
"I would rather buy a company that I know is good in its core business and also has additional option to make money off of a growing China," says Mr. Baer. "This way China becomes just one of the eggs in my basket."
投资中国的另类选择
麦肯锡公司(McKinsey & Co.)在台湾的顾问贝尔(Tobias Baer)实在想不通，他持有的一家中国农业公司的股票去年老是涨个不停。仅仅8个月，他持有的超大现代农业（控股）有限公司(Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Ltd., 简称：超大现代农业)的股票价格就翻了一番，然后不久又涨了一倍，达到了每股40美分。
到12月份的时候，受不了超大现代农业股价大幅波动的刺激，贝尔抛售了该股并买入了韩国和日本公司的股票。贝尔说，"在这只股票价格大幅飙升之后，很难搞明白到底发生了什么事情"。他还说，"每个人都对中国的发展兴奋不已，这让我担心，中国的发展会不会走互联网泡沫的老路，这个想法让我感到很紧张"。
去年，中国是最令投资者兴奋的市场之一。在2003年，摩根士丹利资本国际(Morgan Stanley Capital International)中国指数上涨81%。今年，由于预计中国国内生产总值增幅将超过8%，位居世界经济发展最快的国家之列，投资者又开始寻找各种途径以从中国的经济扩张中获利。但是，有些人担心，中国市场有些过热。一些分析师认为，那些在中国之外但却借中国经济增长而发展业务的公司是更为稳健的投资选择。
投资中国公司股票需要一定的胆量。在过去30年中，这个市场曾有三次大起大落。第一次是在1993年和1994年，当时第一只中国大陆公司股票在香港上市；第二次是1996年和1997年，当时香港所谓的"红筹股"公司与大陆经济的联系日益密切；第三次是1999年和2000年，一些中国的科技和电信股股价上涨3倍后大幅下跌。一些分析师担心，目前投资中国股票的热潮可能再次将中国公司股价推至过高的水平。分析师说，那些基中国指数的大部分成份股目前股价都是去年每股收益的20多倍，这对于一个难以预计前景的新兴市场来说过高了一些。
投资管理集团Invesco U.K.的首席投资长耶柏利(Bob Yerbury)说，中国在全球的影响不断上升，但大多数股票已经消化了这一因素。他说，如果谁要以此为由来进行投资，那你可千万要小心。
由于中国经济增长刺激了从钢铁到电脑到手机等各个领域的需求，整个亚洲范围内的公司都因此获益匪浅。高盛(Goldman Sachs)驻香港的分析师一直在跟踪一个关注名单中的100多家亚太公司，这些公司有一个共同的特点是，要么因中国的需求增长而收入提高，要么就是将业务转移至中国，利用中国的廉价劳动力来节省资金。当高盛分析师去年年底对这些与中国密切相关的公司股票进行分析时发现，投资其中许多股票比投资许多中国公司的股票会有更好的回报。HSBC Securities Asia驻香港策略师杰森尼(Nilesh Jasani)说，对中国的出口以及中国的国内需求能带来令人吃惊的间接利益，而这正是最令人感兴趣的方面。
那你怎么确定哪家中国以外的公司适于因中国经济增长而获益呢？那些已经从中国经济扩张中谋得好处的公司可以分为三类：为中国经济发展提供原材料的公司；为中国建设工厂以及电信网络提供设备的公司；以及向中国越来越富余的消费者销售产品和服务的公司。去年表现最好的亚洲共同基金－－Ashburton Asia Pacific Fund驻海峡群岛的基金经理席塞尔(Jonathan Schiessl)说，任何和中国市场有关的股票都有不俗表现。
瑞士银行(UBS)驻香港的中国研究主管张化桥(Joe Zhang)称，中国的进口额每年正以30%的速度增长，所涉及的商品不仅包括原材料和机械设备，还包括古驰、夏柰儿等名品，甚至还有新西兰的奶酪、法国的葡萄酒等大众商品。
从原材料来看，中国看来无穷尽的需求对全球商品价格带来深刻影响。例如，在过去12个月中，道琼斯AIG商品指数上涨17%。向中国供应原材料的公司正在获取丰厚回报。例如，由于中国需求促使其订单增长及全球钢铁价格上扬，去年韩国钢铁巨头浦项综合制铁公司(Posco Co.)的利润飙升80%，至17亿美元。
分析师称，随著新住宅楼、写字楼、高速公路、港口和铁路的兴建，中国正在从日本日立建机(Hitachi Construction Machinery Co.)等公司进口机械设备，同时也增强了台湾运输公司阳明海运(Yang Ming Marine Transport Corp.)的业务。
中国的消费者也正在掀起消费热潮，他们出外旅游就餐的次数增多，更多的人购买手机和汽车。从这部分日益增长的需求中获益的公司包括香港国泰航空(Cathay Pacific Airways)、香格里拉（亚洲）有限公司(Shangri-La Asia Ltd.)管理的酒店及马来西亚名胜世界(Resorts World Bhd.)经营的赌场。在新加坡，小食品公司旺旺控股(Want Want Holdings Ltd.)有87%的销售额来自中国市场：由于该市场对其米果和饮料的需求不断增长，去年第三季度该公司利润增长46%，至2,600万美元。其他受益者还包括在中国销售手机的韩国三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co.)、汽车配件销售商东阳实业厂股份有限公司(Tong Yang Industry Co.)和汽车厂商丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)。张化桥称，其中一些公司中国市场的收入已经超过其全球收入的10%。
诚然，投资于与中国市场相关的股票并不能确保盈利。如果全球经济增长前景恶化，中国的增长可能放缓，这些公司的中国以外地区业务也许会陷入困境，其股价可能下挫。不过，分析师称，购买自己国家和中国业务相关的股票仍不失为藉增长之机获利的良好途径。
贝尔说，"我宁愿买入据我所知核心业务良好并有望从中国增长中受益的公司股票。这样，中国股票就仅是我篮子中的一个鸡蛋而已。"
