China's Big Oil Companies See Shares Fall Back to Earth
Now that China's oil companies have hit the big time, they're getting treated like it.
High oil prices, coupled with excitement over everything Chinese, drove shares of China's big-three oil and gas companies skyward last year. Lured by China's growing oil consumption, investors poured billions of dollars into PetroChina Co.; China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec; and China National Offshore Oil Co., or Cnooc. News in April that Warren Buffett had built up a 13% stake in PetroChina's traded shares helped spur enthusiasm for the three stocks.
Those who got in early were richly rewarded. PetroChina surged 187% last year, making it the world's sixth-biggest oil company by market capitalization. Sinopec rose 155%, while Cnooc jumped 55%.
"China's energy stocks had a tremendous run last year," says Anthony Muh, head of investments for Citigroup Asset Management in Hong Kong, which has about $14.9 billion under management in Asia excluding Japan. "The mainland oil companies had fantastic returns on equity and strong growth rates in a protected monopolistic environment."
But the honeymoon may be over. Shares of PetroChina and Sinopec have fallen some 20% off their highs, while Cnooc shares are down about 10%. BP PLC last month sold a 2% stake in PetroChina that it bought in 2000, pocketing about $1.2 billion. All three of the stocks trade in Hong Kong and as American depositary receipts on the New York Stock Exchange.
The prices have fallen back as investors have begun to question whether the Chinese companies deserve to be trading at the same price/earnings ratios as better-known Western oil giants, such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and BP. While China is the world's second-largest consumer of crude oil, after the U.S., the Chinese companies face the same challenges as the more established Western players: fierce global competition for oil reserves, rising costs of oil-and-gas exploration and development, and the prospect of lower oil prices.
The three companies all "have strong demand, capital to invest, and they might have technology, but oil is globally competitive," says Christopher Palmer, fund manager at Gartmore Alphagen Pictor Fund, a London-based, emerging-markets hedge fund. "Management is going to have to tackle the competition-for-reserves issue head on."
PetroChina, created out of a national onshore exploration and production company, remains mostly a domestic company and is beginning to bump up against the limits of its oil and gas reserves. With a modest 2.2% increase in overall oil and gas production in 2003, it has struggled to acquire foreign oil and gas fields. And production at its Daqing field, which accounts for almost half of its oil production and proven reserves, is down to its lowest levels in 30 years.
"PetroChina's operating costs are rising and its oil fields are mature," says Mario Traviati, analyst at Merrill Lynch in Singapore.
Cnooc, on the other hand, has an entirely offshore business and newer oil fields -- as a result, it may be able to make up in production volume what it may lose in earnings if oil prices fall, says Mr. Traviati. The company, created in 1982 as part of the government's foray into offshore exploration and production, forecasts a compound annual growth rate in production of 8% to 12% over the next seven years.
Still, Cnooc has been hit by some of the same questions over reserves that recently took a toll on Shell and other big oil companies. Cnooc has modest total reserves of about two billion barrels of oil equivalent, but its ratio of undeveloped reserves is the world's second-highest. Some analysts and investors like the undeveloped reserves because they will be more productive than aging fields, though others warn that undeveloped fields are a wild card.
"You can pin your growth prospects on them, but until you set up production infrastructure, you don't have a great feel for what's there," says Paul Bernard of Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong.
Sinopec, which evolved out of the national petroleum refining and distribution company, may end up being the stock most closely linked to China's growth story, with its more than 30,000 gas stations in the booming southern and eastern coastal provinces. The refining and marketing of petroleum products is the most profitable part of the energy industry these days, with profit margins at 10-year highs in Asia.
Sinopec is also China's largest producer and distributor of petrochemicals such as ethylene, a raw material for plastics and synthetic fibers. Such "downstream" contributions to earnings, currently less than half, will likely account for more than 70% of the company's total earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization by 2005, estimates Merrill Lynch.
中国三大石油巨头失宠
2003年里，许多投资者在他们的投资组合里加入了大量中国三大石油公司的股票。但今年，投资者对这些公司的股票和业务前景的看法有所改变，对它们的兴趣可能会因此明显降温。
去年，有两大因素导致投资者追捧这三家公司的股票，那就是：全球油价居高不下，市场对各国的石油公司都很关注；而盘踞在全球仅次于美国的第二大原油消费市场上的中国三大石油天然气公司自然也备受青睐。在此推动下，有数十亿美元的资金投向了中国石油(PetroChina Co.)、中国石化(China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.,简称Sinopec)和中海石油(China National Offshore Oil.,简称CNOOC)的股票。
去年4月有消息说，沃伦?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)买进了中国石油13%的股份，这进一步激发了股票投资者对三大石油公司的热情。这三家公司的股票均在香港和纽约两地上市。
那些较早介入的投资者获得了丰厚的回报。中国石油去年暴涨187%，至去年底，按市值排名，它已成为全球第六大石油公司。中国石化也劲升155%，中海石油涨55%。
花旗集团(Citigroup)资产管理公司亚太分公司投资部门负责人沐义棠(Anthony Muh)说，中国的能源股去年涨幅惊人。这几家大陆能源公司在政府的保护下处于垄断地位，因此它们的股权投资回报和业绩增长幅度都相当可观。 但好景不长，中国石油和中国石化的股价目前已较其去年12月创下的高点下降了20%左右，中海石油也跌了约10%。英国石油(BP PLC)上个月卖掉了2000年买进的中国石油2%的股份，进帐12亿美元。
中国一些石油类股票的本益比现在比西方知名的石油公司高出很多，这促使许多投资者重新考虑它们的前景：作为中国企业，它们仍会吸引到一定的注意力，但它们毕竟也是石油天然气公司，也像其他所有石油行业的公司一样，面临著全球各家公司为增加油气储备而展开的激烈斗争以及勘探开采成本上升、油价可能回落的风险。
在对三家公司的基本面仔细分析后，投资者发现，面对种种挑战，各家公司的应对能力有高有低。因此，股票走势并驾齐驱的这三驾马车可能会就此分道扬镳，如果今年油价像许多行业分析师预测的那样出现回落的话，发生这种情况的可能性就更大了。
中国石油的前身是一家全国性的陆上石油勘探和开采企业，它的业务基本上还局限在国内，而目前它的产量已快接近其油气储备的极限了。中海石油成立于1982年，当时是一家海洋油气勘探和开采公司，业务基础相对薄弱。目前该公司正增加资本开支，开发其在中国沿海的庞大油气储备，并开拓海外业务。
中国石化原来是一家全国性石油加工和销售公司，是三家公司中业务最全面的公司。它在中国东南沿海地区有30,000多家加油站，它的股票或许有可能成为与中国的经济增长进程联系最紧密的一只。如果油价下跌，三家公司都会受影响，但一些分析师认为，中国石化股价的承受力可能会好于西方知名的大型石油公司。
位于伦敦的新兴市场对冲基金Gartmore Alphagen Pictor经理帕尔梅(Christopher Palmer)说，三家公司都有强劲的市场需求和用于投资的资本，或许也有所需的技术，但石油业的竞争是全球性的，管理层将不得不首先解决争夺石油储备的问题。
中国石油2003年石油天然气总产量仅增加了2.2%，这表明，它可能遇到了埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)和英国石油数年来一直面临的同样的战略性问题。随著中国石油旗下大庆油田(Daqing)的产量今年降到了30年来的最低水平，但中国石油在收购海外油气田方面进展却并不顺利。大庆油田的产量和已探明储量接近中国石油总量的一半。
美林公司(Merrill Lynch)驻新加坡分析师特拉维特(Mario Traviati)说，中国石油的经营成本在上升，其油田可开采的储量已明显减少。他补充说，一口陆上油井的可开采量通常只有海上油井的十五分之一左右。
这种观点将使投资者的目光转向中海石油，该公司的业务全部都是海上油田，其油井已开采的时间也比较短。特拉维特说，如果油价下跌，它可以通过增加产量来弥补利润的减少。该公司预计，未来7年内，其综合年增长率将在8%-12%之间，这个速度很令人□慕。
中海石油也是三家公司中扩张动作最大的一家。它斥资10多亿美元与雪佛龙德士古(ChevronTexaco Corp.)、荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch/Shell Group)及ConocoPhillips成立了合资公司，在中国近海和亚洲其他地区钻探石油天然气。今年它还将勘探预算较去年增加一倍，达到3亿美元，而它今年的20亿美元资本开支中大部分将用于开发已探明有储量的地区。 不过，尽管中海石油目前是全球成本最低的石油生产商之一，但随著市场风险加大、竞争日益激烈，很难说它是否还能立于不败之地。在前不久壳牌宣布下调石油储备数字之后，外界对其他大型石油公司的石油储量也产生了很大疑问。
中海石油对外宣布的石油总储量是20亿桶油当量，不算很高，但这些储量中，尚未开发部分的比例在全球石油业界排在第二位。一些分析师和投资希望未开发部分越大越好，因为它们比已经过数年开采的油田产油率高，但其他人则认为，尚未开发的油田其实际含油量可能还是未知数。
高盛公司(Goldman Sachs)驻香港的伯纳德(Paul Bernard)说，可以根据待开发油田的比例来推测一家公司未来的增长潜力，但在实际开始开采之前，人们很难确切知道那里的含油量到底有多大。
能源行业目前利润率最高的是石油产品加工和营销领域，亚洲地区该领域的利润率达到了10年来的最高水平，这对中国石化来说是个好消息。中国石化是中国第二大石油勘探和开采公司，也是中国最大的石油加工商，除此之外，它的石油销售网络在三家公司中也是最出色的，品牌知名度很高，它在中国沿海城市的一些加油站占据著最佳的地理位置。
该公司也是中国最大的石化产品生产商和销售商。它的产品包括生产塑料和合成纤维用的聚乙烯原料。下游产品对该公司利息、税项、折旧和摊销前利润的贡献率目前还不到一半，但据美林估计，2005年之前有望达到70%。
汇丰(HSBC)资产管理公司驻香港基金经理Richard Wong说，他预计，下游产品业务比重较大的石油公司将有更大的增长潜力。
