As China Surges, It Also Proves A Buttress to American Strength
Frank Lin joined fellow Chinese furniture makers at a hotel here last summer to discuss some alarming news from America: U.S. furniture companies were asking Washington to investigate "illegal" Chinese trade practices and restrict Chinese sales to the U.S. Among the petitioners was one of Mr. Lin's longtime customers, Virginia-based Hooker Furniture Corp.
Mr. Lin's dismay turned to confusion days later when he received an e-mail from Hooker's chief executive. Hooker looked forward to an "exciting future" doing business with China, said the message, and wanted to "continue the extraordinary growth we have had in the last few years with Asian imports."
Indeed, thanks largely to the imports, Hooker has boomed. It closed a factory in North Carolina last summer but has boosted profits and dazzled investors with a stock that more than quadrupled in two years.
"I just don't understand what they are doing. It makes no sense," Mr. Lin said after receiving the e-mail in August. On his desk lay designs sent from America. Lining the wall, newly crafted chairs stood ready for inspection by U.S. buyers. "If they don't import, they die. They need us. So why do they want to hurt us?" Mr. Lin wondered.
His bewilderment flows from a much bigger tension besetting U.S. economic relations with China -- and the economic forces that underpin America's global hegemony. China's rise both supports the American superpower and embodies some of its self-generated vulnerabilities.
Burgeoning business ties with China have become treacherous terrain. Anxious to calm workers' worries about jobs, and fearful of appearing unpatriotic, even some U.S. companies that rely on China are joining industry coalitions clamoring to curb the "China threat."
But there's another side to China's dynamism. China is slotting itself into the global economic order that America dominates and largely created. As a critical link in this capitalist chain, nominally communist China helps enrich companies such as Hooker. At the same time, it supports a central feature of America's superpower status: its gargantuan appetite for foreign goods and capital.
Though America is sometimes loosely called an empire, it defies the imperial economic script described by Lenin (who called imperialism "the highest form of capitalism"). The U.S. doesn't seek vassal states as outlets for surplus capital. In an anomaly for such a powerful nation, America sucks in money from abroad. With its large national debt and trade deficits, the U.S. binds not by lending but by borrowing and by importing.
Its status as a "hyper-debtor" makes this "hyper-power" oddly reliant on weaker partners, says Niall Ferguson, a professor at New York University and scholar of imperial history. "If you are dependent on the willingness of others to hold your assets, there is a limit to how unilaterally you can act."
For all their nation's power, many Americans feel an economic insecurity, for which China is a lightning rod. Its blitzkrieg thrust into U.S. markets over the past decade, many worry, reveals a soft economic core under the tough carapace of America's military might. From bed frames to circuit-boards, the industrial bedrock of American power is crumbling, say some politicians and pundits. At stake, warns the American Furniture Manufacturers Committee for Legal Trade, which filed the complaint that upset Mr. Lin, "is our way of life, our culture and the competitiveness of America in the world."
China's emergence as a major economic power is beyond doubt. Its $1.2 trillion economy, while far smaller than the $10.4 trillion economy of America and Japan's $4 trillion output, is on track to catch up with Japan inside of two decades. Already, China's growing economic weight, including a voracious consumption of crude oil, is giving Beijing commensurate influence in geopolitics -- another power center for America to contend with.
Also undeniable is a painful loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs to a country where the average plant worker earns around $80 a month, less than an American on minimum wage makes in two days. Cheap labor pushed China's trade surplus with the U.S. to $123 billion in a recent 12-month period, five times the gap a decade ago.
The figures, however, mask the many ways in which the world's two biggest continental economies complement each other. China's rests heavily on industry, with manufacturing, mining and related activities accounting for 51% of gross domestic product, by World Bank figures. America generates only a quarter of its GDP from industry and just 14% from manufacturing. Services contribute nearly three quarters.
Curbing Chinese imports through tariffs or a stronger yuan would only drive up imports from other countries, contends Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley. The only real alternative, he says, is for Americans to spend less and save more: "When Americans get frustrated with China, they should look in the mirror."
They could also look inside things they buy from China. Take the 20 million "made in China" computer mice shipped to the U.S. each year by Logitech International SA, a Swiss-American company with headquarters in California. The mice are put together in a six-floor building in Suzhou, a Chinese city once famous for its Confucian gardens but now better known as a frenetic manufacturing hub.
Mouse Called Wanda
Logitech's Suzhou parts warehouse is a microcosm of the global economy, and helps explain why China reinforces America's role as ringmaster. Piled to the ceiling on blue metal shelves are boxes marked with the logos of foreign companies, from big U.S. multinationals to a small Belgian billiard company that makes trackballs.
One of Logitech's big sellers is a wireless mouse called Wanda, which sells to American consumers for around $40. Of this, Logitech takes about $8, while distributors and retailers take $15. A further $14 goes to suppliers that provide Wanda's parts: A Motorola Inc. plant in Malaysia makes the mouse's chips, and America's Agilent Technologies Inc. supplies the optical sensor. Even the solder comes from a U.S. company, Cookson Electronics, which has a factory in China's Yunnan province next to Vietnam.
Marketing is led from Fremont, Calif., where a staff of 450 earns far more than 4,000 Chinese employed in Suzhou. China's take from each mouse comes to a meager $3, which covers wages, power, transport and other overhead costs.
CHINA'S CHANGING PICTURE
The world confronting China, 25 years ago and today.
INDICATOR THEN NOW
Population 975 million 1.3 billion
Leader Deng Xiaoping Hu Jintao
Number of private sedans 0 3 million
Fashion icon Jiang Qing Gong Li
Oil imports 0 2 million barrels a day
Annual U.S.-China trade $2.3 billion $177 billion (a)
Trade balance $1.1 billion surplus for U.S. $123 billion deficit for U.S. (a)
Currency Nonconvertible Convertible in trade (b)
Stock trading None Two exchanges (c)
Unresolved territorial claims Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, Soviet border region, South China Sea islands Taiwan, South China Sea islands
(a) December 2002 through November 2003
(b) Beijing pegs yuan at 8.28 to a U.S. dollar
(c)Shanghai and Shenzhen, listing 1,287 stocks in all
Source: WSJ research
Other Chinese-made products rely less on U.S. components and use Japanese, Korean or Taiwanese parts instead. But, in many cases, the upshot for China is the same: Foreigners get the bulk of the money. They supply many of the parts, often own the plants in China that assemble them, and get a markup on sales abroad. Foreign companies account for more than three-quarters of China's high-tech exports. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's ranking of "China's" top 10 exporters includes two American companies -- Motorola and hard-drive maker Seagate Technology.
Logitech, like most tech, toy and textile companies with plants in China, employs mostly young women such as Wang Yan, an 18-year-old from the impoverished rural province of Anhui. She is paid $75 a month to sit all day at a conveyor belt plugging three tiny bits of metal into circuit boards. She does this 2,000 times a day. To earn extra money, she gets up at 6 a.m. to tidy the dormitory space she shares with a dozen fellow workers.
This is her second stint in a factory. Before coming to Suzhou, she skipped school to become an underage worker at an electronics plant not far from Mr. Lin's furniture company in Dongguan. She complains about her salary but isn't going back to her village. That would mean only "eating bitterness," she says.
China's pivotal role in the global supply chain buttresses a pillar of foreign policy dating all the way back to 1899, when the U.S. pushed for an Open Door Policy making China's ports available to all. In turn, China's trade opening to the world in the past two decades softened its once-antagonistic foreign policy. Last year, as the U.S. prepared to invade Iraq, Beijing stood aloof from the Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis of outspoken opposition. It has offered the U.S. some help trying to curb North Korea's nuclear ambitions.
China's explosive growth as an exporter, though distressing for many American plants, prods the U.S. in a direction it has been moving for decades. Hooker furniture, which now imports more than 40% of the furniture it sells, mirrors this shift, scaling back on domestic manufacturing but expanding in services such as design, distribution and marketing. Meanwhile, other American companies, such as Intel Corp., focus on making high-end products, many of which end up in goods sold in America as "made in China."
China also does well out of an arrangement that provides millions of jobs, lets China steadily increase military spending and has created the biggest foreign-currency reserves after Japan's. Because of the U.S. debt habit, the arrangement also leaves China with leverage over America.
Borrowing Habit
The U.S. has been a net capital importer since at least the 1980s. This is in stark contrast to Britain at the height of its imperium before World War I, when the British had net foreign assets valued at 150% of their own GDP. America, though often described as Britain's successor as the world's dominant power, does the opposite. Recent figures from the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis show that foreign holdings of U.S. stocks, bonds and other assets exceeded America's foreign assets to the tune of $2.3 trillion -- or 22% of GDP -- at the end of 2002.
"America is certainly a hegemon and may be occupying Iraq but, economically at least, it does the opposite of what Lenin described as imperialism," says Angus Maddison, a British economist whose many books include a survey of the world economy over the last millennium.
MILESTONES
1979: Deng steers post-Mao China on "capitalist road"
1981: China convicts "Gang of Four" radicals, including Mao's widow, Jiang Qing
1989: China crushes pro-democracy protest in Tiananmen Square
1990: Reopens Shanghai Stock Exchange, closed since '49 revolution (a)
1997: Deng dies; China regains Hong Kong from British
1999: Regains Macao, enclave Portugal had held since 16th century
1999: Protests as U.S. accidentally bombs Chinese embassy in Belgrade
2000: Cracks down on Falun Gong quasi-religious group
2001: Joins World Trade Organization
2001: Chinese jet collides with U.S. spy plane over South China Sea, prompting diplomatic standoff
2002: Communist Party says it will admit capitalists
2003: SARS outbreak (b)
2003: U.S., Japan urge China to float yuan; it declines (c)
2003: Mass march for democracy in Hong Kong
(a) Shanghai and Shenzhen, listing 1,287 stocks in all
(b) December 2002 through November 2003
(c) Beijing pegs yuan at 8.28 to a U.S. dollar
Source: WSJ research
Tax cuts, spending in Iraq and other factors have stirred alarm among some economists that America's debt is getting out of control. A recent International Monetary Fund report said America's net foreign obligations could rise in a few years to 40% of GDP, and warned of an "unprecedented level of external debt for a large industrial country."
China didn't create this potentially unstable edifice, but it does, at least for the time being, help to keep it upright. China has loans outstanding to the U.S. government of more than $120 billion, in the form of Treasury debt that China owns. It holds probably that much again in Fannie Mae and other dollar-denominated debt securities.
Contrast that with what U.S. companies have invested in Chinese plants and equipment -- not a direct comparison, by any means, but revealing nonetheless. This "foreign direct investment" stood at $10.2 billion at the end of 2002, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, about one-twenty-fifth the level of China's U.S.-securities holdings. The Chinese government offers a much higher figure for U.S. investment in China but still far below the value of Chinese holdings of U.S. debt.
America's addiction to foreign money hands China and other potential adversaries a weapon, some influential voices warn. Among them is Aaron Friedberg of Princeton University, an authority on Britain's imperial decline who is now a national security adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney. Mr. Friedberg wrote in a 2000 article in Commentary that China could one day dump its dollar assets to "trigger a run on the dollar, an increase in U.S. interest rates and perhaps a stock-market crash."
But China has reasons of its own to buy dollar assets -- reasons that show how intricately the officially Marxist country fits into a U.S.-led world economic order. As China lends to the U.S. by buying U.S. government notes, it stows in a safe place the vast surplus cash its export economy generates.
Meanwhile, its buying of dollar assets buttresses another Chinese policy: keeping the yuan pegged at a low exchange rate against the greenback. Every time China buys a Treasury note it sells yuan. This selling helps stop the yuan from rising. By keeping its currency cheap, China keeps its exports especially inexpensive abroad -- one of the trade policies the U.S. complains about.
The Chip Trade
What worries some Americans most isn't the loss of menial jobs to tens of millions of Chinese such as Ms. Wang but a migration of white-collar work as China moves up the economic ladder. A Godzilla role once played by Japan is now assigned to China, and sometimes India. "When you hear that Intel, IBM and Goldman Sachs plan to move high-end jobs to China and India, what's going to be left here -- restaurants?" asked Democratic Sen. Charles Schumer of New York at a Banking Committee hearing last year.
A study of the U.S. semiconductor industry's moves abroad, headed by Democratic Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, said, "What is at stake here is our ability to be pre-eminent in the world of ideas."
Intel now produces more than 50 million chips a year in China. Most end up in computers and other goods for export.
Yet Intel's main facility, a $500 million plant in Shanghai, doesn't really make chips: It tests and assembles them from silicon wafers made in Intel plants abroad, mostly in the U.S. China adds less than 5% of the value. The U.S. generates the bulk of the value, and the profits.
Motorola, by contrast, does make chips in China, and has been far less successful. Its $1 billion plant in Tianjin has been plagued by problems. As part of a strategic rethink, Motorola has announced plans to transfer the facility to Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., a company based in China but partly owned by non-Chinese.
Attempts by domestic Chinese companies to make sophisticated semiconductors have a mixed record. Making high-end chips requires hugely expensive, imported equipment and does not play to China's natural strength in cheap labor. To try to overcome this, the government has been offering tax and other incentives in a big push reminiscent of an earlier drive to build up a large auto industry. This suggests the big competitive advantage China enjoys in labor-intensive manufacturing isn't easily transferred upward.
Whose Profits?
How much U.S. multinationals profit from their Chinese operations is hard to assess. Most book their earnings through Hong Kong or other offshore locations with low taxes. Bureau of Economic Analysis data, however, give a rough guide. American companies, after losing money in China in the 1980s and having minimal earnings for much of the 1990s, reported net income from their China affiliates of $755 million in 1999 and double that in the first three quarters of 2003. If income from Hong Kong affiliates is included, American corporate earnings from greater China totaled $5.16 billion in the first three quarters of 2003, about the same as earnings from Japan.
"Americans are getting a great deal in China," says Huang Yasheng, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor and critic of a model he says benefits foreigners and state-owned Chinese concerns at the expense of Chinese entrepreneurs. China, he says, "produces zillions of low-value-added things, but this is a miracle of volume, not a miracle of value. ... Americans get cheap goods and then get to borrow money from China at pathetic rates."
America's China deal looks pretty good from Frank Lin's furniture factory in Dongguan, operated by Glory Oceanic Co., a Taiwanese-owned company of which he is president. Mr. Lin makes low-cost, high-quality furniture that allows U.S. companies better margins than on their U.S.-made goods. He buys wood from America and coats it with lacquer from a Dongguan factory that is run by Americans, uses American chemicals and flies an American flag. (The lacquer factory, owned by Akzo Nobel of the Netherlands, briefly hoisted a Dutch flag at the start of the Iraq war.)
Also now benefiting is a group of Americans that Chinese furniture makers wish they didn't need: Washington trade lawyers. Mr. Lin and fellow factory bosses -- most from Taiwan -- have chipped in $2 million to defend their business against complaints of "dumping" -- selling for less than fair-market value. After preliminary hearings, the U.S. International Trade Commission ruled this month that domestic furniture makers have been hurt by imports. The Commerce Department must now decide whether this is due to illegal pricing by the Chinese, and whether to impose duties, theoretically as high as 440%.
A Show of Hands
To plan strategy, a "defense committee" set up by Chinese furniture makers has been holding meetings in the ballroom of Dongguan's Fu Ying Hotel. At one gathering last year, the chairman read a list of U.S. companies that initiated the antidumping complaint and asked plant bosses to raise their hands if they made goods for any of them. Mr. Lin raised his hand four times. Many other hands also popped up, revealing that more than half of the U.S. furniture companies claiming concern about Chinese imports were themselves importers.
U.S. buyers, Mr. Lin said, "come here and go chop, chop, chop on our asking price and then complain that we are selling too cheaply." His warehouse was stacked with boxes full of furniture ordered by Hooker and marked with Hooker's corporate insignia.
Hooker's chief executive, Paul Toms, says he joined the antidumping petition to be "fair to our employees," and notes that it targets only bedroom furniture. Hooker and other supporters of the petition make most of their bedroom furniture in the U.S. "The last thing we want is to have the Chinese believe we are against them," Mr. Toms says, because imports from Asia "have been responsible for all our growth and a lot of the profit over the last few years." China, he says, is "both a threat and a great opportunity."
Mr. Lin and his colleagues said they were considering withholding shipments to U.S. companies that signed the petition. Scrambling to avoid a disaster for their businesses, Hooker and other importers rushed executives to China to try to calm tempers. In his e-mail, Mr. Toms assured Mr. Lin that, despite Hooker's joining the claims of illegal trade by China, he didn't think Mr. Lin had done anything "illegal or unethical."
Caught in the middle are scores of Americans working in Dongguan's furniture factories, lacquer-mixing plants and related enterprises. Smeared with sweat and sawdust after a day of supervising quality at a factory here, Karen Lanning and Bill Ward, both veteran furniture makers from North Carolina, swapped theories on what lay behind the importers' anti-import campaign.
"The whole thing is so goofy it must be politics," said Mr. Ward, aged 52. "It's a perfect platform: Wave the flag and whip up the crowd." Ms. Lanning, 49, who moved to China when factories back home began to close, blamed a failure to face economic reality by American furniture companies. "It breaks my heart to see workers lose their jobs at home, but we all picked up in our late 40s and 50s and came over here," she said. "This is evolution. You can't stop it."
中国腾飞巩固美国霸主地位
Frank Lin去年夏季在广东东莞一家宾馆与众多中国家具制造商坐到一起，共同讨论从美国方面传来的糟糕消息：美国家具商请求华盛顿调查中国的"非法"贸易行为，并对中国家具产品进口加以限制。在这些美国公司中，有一家是Frank Lin的长期客户，那就是总部设在弗吉尼亚的Hooker Furniture Corp.。
几天过后，Lin收到Hooker公司首席执行长(CEO)的一封电子邮件，他由最初的沮丧进而感到迷惑不解。这位CEO在电子邮件中说，他期待Hooker与中国的生意往来有"激动人心的未来"，并希望继续保持过去几年亚洲进口为其带来的业务上的非凡增长势头。
的确，从很大程度上讲正是由于这些亚洲进口商品，Hooker才得以发展壮大。虽然在去年夏季，Hooker关闭了北加利福尼亚的一家工厂，但公司利润仍大幅增长，股价在两年内取得了超过3倍的眩目涨幅。
Lin在去年8月份收到这封邮件后说，我不明白他们为什么这么做，完全没有道理。在他的办公桌上摆放著美国寄过来的设计图，手工制作的新椅子靠著墙一字儿摆开，等候著美国买家的挑选。Lin感到不解：如果他们不进口，他们一点希望都没有。既然他们需要我们，为什么还要伤害我们？
Lin的困惑其实不过是中美贸易关系紧张的一个小小写照，同时也显现出支撑美国全球霸主地位的经济力量。中国的崛起既是维持美国超级大国地位的一个支撑力量，同时也是美国一些天生弱点的具体体现。 美、中之间日益紧密的经济关系开始出现许多变幻莫测的因素。因急于消除美国工人对就业前景的担忧，同时担心自己被贴上不爱国的标签，一些依赖中国实现增长的美国公司也加入到打著抑制"中国威胁"旗号的行业联盟当中。
但是中国的经济活力还有另外一层含义。中国正将自己融入到美国所倡导的全球经济秩序当中。作为全球资本链条上的重要一环，名义上仍为共产主义国家的中国帮助美国无数个像Hooker一样的公司赚得盆满钵溢。同时，中国还为维持美国对外国商品和资本的极大需求（这是美国超级大国地位的一个最显著特症）贡献了一己之力。 尽管美国有时被称为帝国主义国家，但美国并不承认其具有列宁所表述的帝国主义经济模式（列宁将帝国主义称为"资本主义发展的最高阶段"）。美国从未将一些盟国当作它的剩余资本输出地。对美国这样一个超级大国来说，仍从海外吸收资本不太符合常规。美国外债和贸易逆差规模庞大，它的"特长"是举债和进口，而非对外贷款。
纽约大学(New York University)的教授和帝国历史研究学者尼尔?弗格森(Niall Ferguson)说，美国"超级债务国"的身份使得这个"超级大国"竟然不可思议地需要依赖力量弱小的伙伴国家。"如果你须处处顾忌债权人的意愿，那么你采取单边行动的程度就大大打了折扣。"
许多美国人对美国的强权感到了一种经济上的不安全感，而中国正是这种不安全感的"避雷针"。中国在过去10年闪电式地进入了美国市场，许多人担心这意味著美国表面上虽有强悍的军事力量但其经济内核却非常脆弱。一些政客和学者表示，美国强权的工业根基正在逐渐瓦解。正如美国家具制造商公平交易委员会(American Furniture Manufacturers Committee for Legal Trade)给政府的投诉信中所言："我们的生活方式、我们的文化以及美国在世界上的竞争力均面临极大的威胁。"
毫无疑问，中国已经崛起成为一个世界经济大国。尽管中国1.2万亿美元的经济规模与美国的10.4万亿美元和日本的4万亿美元相比还相距甚远，但中国有望在20年内追上日本。实际上，中国不断增长的经济实力（包括庞大的原油消费等）已使北京在地缘政治上具有了相应的影响力，北京已经成为美国所要应对的另外一个权力中心。
另外一个不可否认的事实是，美国制造业就业机会正在不断流失到一个普通工厂工人月均工资只有80美元的国家（按美国最低工薪水平计算，这样的月薪不到美国工人两天的薪水）。廉价劳动力帮助中国在过去1年取得了1,230亿美元的对美贸易顺差，是10年前的5倍。
但是这一数字掩盖了这两个世界最大的大陆经济体在多个方面的的互补。世界银行(World Bank)数字显示，中国经济严重依赖于工业，制造、采矿和相关产业占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例高达51%。美国GDP中工业仅占四分之一，制造业比例为14%，服务业的比例则接近四分之三。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席经济学家罗奇(Stephen Roach)说，通过关税或人民币升值的方式限制中国进口只会导致美国增加从其他国家的进口。他说，唯一现实的解决方案是美国减少支出，增加储蓄："当美国人因美中贸易问题感到沮丧时，他们应该照照镜子。"
他们也可以仔细看看从中国购买的商品。举例来说，罗技(Logitech International SA)每年向美国运送2,000万个贴著"中国制造"标签的鼠标，罗技是一家总部设在加州的瑞士-美国合资公司。所有这些鼠标都是在中国苏州的一个六层楼厂房中装配完成的。曾经以古典园林著称的苏州如今已成为中国一个兴旺的制造业中心。
罗技鼠标
罗技的苏州零部件仓库是当今全球经济的一个缩影，它可以说明为什么中国帮助美国增强了其全球经济主导者的角色。在这个仓库里的蓝色金属架上，印著外国公司商标的包装箱一直堆到了天花板，这些公司大至美国跨国公司，小至生产台球的比利时小公司，不一而足。 Wanda无线鼠标是罗技最畅销的产品之一，在美国的售价大约为40美元。在这一价格中，罗技拿8美元，分销商和零售商拿15美元。另外14美元进入Wanda零部件供应商的腰包：鼠标晶片是摩托罗拉(Motorola Inc.)在马来西亚的一个工厂生产的，光学传感器是美国安捷伦科技(Agilent Technologies Inc.)提供的，焊剂则由一家名叫Cookson Electronics的美国公司提供，该公司在中国云南有一家工厂。
负责营销的公司在加州弗里蒙特，这里450名员工的薪水加在一起比苏州装配厂4,000名中国工人的薪水总和要高出很多。中国从每只鼠标中仅能拿到3美元，工人工资、电力、交通和其他经常开支全都包括在这3美元里。
其他一些中国制造的产品对美国零部件的依赖度较低，主要使用日本、韩国和台湾的零部件。但是，在许多情况下，结果是一样的：外国公司拿走收入的大部分。他们供应大部分零部件、让设在中国的装配厂完成零部件组装、最后将组装好的成品运到海外销售赚取利润。在中国的高科技出口中，外国公司所占的比例超过四分之三。中国商务部(Chinese Ministry of Commerce)公布的中国十大出口商中包括两个美国公司：摩托罗拉和硬盘制造商希捷技术公司(Seagate Technology)。
中国的变迁
呈现在世界面前的中国：25年前和现在
指标 当时 现在
人口 9.75亿 13亿
领导人 邓小平 胡锦涛
私家轿车数量 0辆 300万辆
时尚偶像 江青 巩俐
石油进口 0 200万桶/天
年度中美贸易额 23亿美元 1,770亿美元(a)
贸易余额 美国贸易顺差11亿美元 美国贸易逆差1,230亿美元(a)
货币 不可兑换 贸易项下可兑换(b)
股票交易 无 两个交易所(c)
(a) 2002年12月至2003年11月
(b) 中国政府将美元兑人民币汇率锁定在人民币8.28元
(c) 上海和深圳两个交易所，总计有1,287只挂牌交易
来源: WSJ research
与大多数在中国设厂的科技、玩具和纺织公司一样，罗技雇佣的工人主要是来自贫困地区的农村姑娘，比如像王燕(Wang Yan，音译)。今年18岁的王燕来自安徽农村。她一整天都坐在传送带前，将三个微小的金属片插进线路板中，每月工资75美元。她每天重复做2,000次这样的动作。为了多挣些钱，王燕每天早上6点起床打扫13个人共居一室的宿舍。
这是她的第二份工厂工作。在来苏州之前，她逃离了学校到广东一家电子元件厂做童工。这个工厂距Lin在东莞的家具厂不远。讲到薪水，她满腹牢骚，但即便如此也不愿回老家。她说，不过是"吃点苦"而已。
中国在全球供应链中举足轻重的作用为它的对外政策提供了支柱。这一点可以回溯到1899年，当时美国竭力敦促中国实行"门户开发政策"，将所有港口对外国开放。反过来，中国在过去20年中的贸易开放则弱化了其一度奉行的敌对性对外政策。去年，当美国准备攻打伊拉克时，中国没有站到"巴黎－柏林－莫斯科"这一公开反对的阵线中。在遏制朝鲜核野心方面中国也向美国提供一些帮助。
尽管中国出口的爆炸性增长令许多美国工厂感到沮丧，但却推动美国沿著一个数十年来的发展方向前进。Hooker便反映了这种转变－－缩减国内制造规模，同时扩展设计、分销和营销等服务。该公司目前销售的家具中超过40%来自进口。同时，诸如英特尔(Intel Corp.)等美国公司将重心放在高端产品的制造上，其结果是，许多公司在美国销售的商品都贴上了"中国制造"的标签。
中国则通过有条不紊的安排获得了全面丰收：为国内提供了数以百万计的就业机会、逐步增加了军事支出，累积了仅次于日本的庞大外汇储备。美国的举债传统也使中国对它具有了一定的影响力。
举债传统
至少自上个世界80年代以来，美国就一直是资金净流入国。这与第一次世界大战前处于世界霸主地位的英国形成鲜明对比，那时英国持有的外国资产净值相当于其GDP的150%。虽然人们普遍将美国看作是英国世界霸主地位的继任者，但是美国的情形与英国恰好相反。美国商务部(Commerce Department)经济分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)最近公布的数字显示，截至2002年年底，外国持有的美国股票、债券和其他资产金额超过美国持有的外国资产金额，达到2.3万亿美元，相当于美国GDP的22%。
英国经济学家安格斯?麦迪逊(Angus Maddison)说，"美国当然是一个霸权国家，现在仍占领著伊拉克，但是至少在经济上，美国与列宁描述的帝国主义正好相反。"麦迪逊著有多部著作，包括一本过去一千年世界经济概览。
减税、伊拉克问题开支和其他一些现实问题引起了一些经济学家的警觉，他们认为美国债务规模正在逐渐失去控制。国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)最近在一份报告中指出，美国的净外债规模在未来几年内可能会攀升至GDP的40%，并警告称，对一个庞大的工业化国家而言，这样的外债规模是史无前例的。
中国不是这个有可能倾倒的大厦的缔造者，但是至少在目前，中国为这座大厦的稳稳耸立提供了支撑。中国通过持有美国国债，对美国政府的债权规模超过了1,200亿美元。中国还持有可能同样规模的联邦国民抵押贷款协会（Fannie Mae，简称：房利美)债券以及其他以美元计价的债券。
我们来将这一数字与美国公司对中国工厂和设备的投资进行一下对比－－不是直接比较，主要是发现数字背后的含义。根据经济分析局提供的数字，美国对中国的"外国直接投资"截至2002年年底为102亿美元，是中国持有美国债券规模的1/25。中国政府公布的美国投资额要高一些，但仍远远低于中国持有的美国债券金额。
中国大事记：
1979:邓小平将毛泽东时代结束后的中国引上"资本"
1990:上海证交所重新开张，该交易所自1949年革命后关闭 (a)
1997:邓小平逝世，中国从英国手中收回香港
1999:中国收回澳门，澳门自16世纪起一直为葡萄牙殖民地
2001:加入世界贸易组织
2002:中国共产党表示将承认私营企业主地位
2003:爆发非典型肺炎(SARS)疫情(b)
2003:美国和日本要求中国允许人民币自由浮动，遭到中国拒绝(c)
(a)上海和深圳证交所，总计有1,287只股票挂牌交易
(b) 2002年12月至2003年11月
(c) 中国将美元兑人民币汇率锁定在人民币8.28元
来源: WSJ research
美国权威人士警告称，美国对海外资金的依赖给了中国和其他潜在对手一个武器。普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)的阿隆?弗里德伯格(Aaron Friedberg)就是这些权威人士中的一位，他是研究不列颠帝国衰落的专家，现为美国副总统切尼(Dick Cheney)的国家安全顾问。弗里德伯格曾于2000年撰文写道，中国有一天可能会大肆抛售以美元计价的资产，从而引发美元需求紧张、美国利率上扬，甚至导致美国股市崩盘。
但是中国购买美元计价资产有其自己的原因－－而这些原因显示出这个自称信奉马克思主义的国家是如何神不知鬼不觉地融入到美国主导的世界经济秩序之中的。中国通过购买美国政府债券向美国放贷，在这一过程中，中国将出口所获的庞大现金盈余存放到了一个安全的地方。 与此同时，中国购买美元计价资产支撑了中国的另一项政策：将人民币兑美元汇率维持在一个较低的水平上。中国每次购买美国国债都要卖出人民币，这抑制了人民币的上升趋势。通过将人民币汇率维持在低水平上，中国的出口产品价格极其低廉－－这是中国贸易政策中一个令美国不满的地方。
晶片贸易
一些美国人最担忧的不是那些较低级的工作转移到成千上万像王燕那样的中国人手中，他们担心的是随著中国经济实力的壮大，白领工作职位也随之转移到中国。中国已经担当起日本曾经扮演的"哥斯拉"（Godzilla）的角色，有时候印度也是这一角色的扮演者。纽约州民主党参议员查尔斯?舒默(Charles Schumer)去年在参议院银行委员会的一次听证会上问道，"当英特尔(Intel)、国际商业机器公司(IBM)和高盛(Goldman Sachs)计划将高端职位转移到中国和印度的时候，这里还剩下什么？餐馆？"
康涅狄格州民主党参议员约瑟夫?莱伯曼(Joseph Leiberman)主持了对美国半导体行业海外转移的研究。他在研究报告称，"当前生死攸关的问题是我们在这个信息世界是否具有保持领先的能力。"
英特尔每年在中国生产超过5,000万个晶片。这些晶片大多数安装在了电脑和其他供出口的产品中。
但是英特尔在上海投资5亿美元兴建的在华最大工厂并不生产晶片：该工厂测试并组装英特尔海外工厂制造的晶圆，这些晶圆主要产自美国。中国工厂只令晶片增加了不到5%的价值，美国工厂创造了大部分价值和利润。
与此相反，摩托罗拉(Motorola)在中国生产晶片，但到目前为止运营很不成功。它投资10亿美元在天津兴建的工厂受到一系列问题的困扰。摩托罗拉对其战略进行了调整，宣布将此工厂转给中芯国际集成电路制造（上海）有限公司（Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp.，简称：SMIC或中芯国际)。中芯国际是一家外国人持有部分股份的中国公司。 中国公司在生产精密半导体产品方面有得有失。生产高端晶片需要极其昂贵的进口设备，这与中国在廉价劳动力方面具有的天然优势并不相符。为了克服这一问题，中国政府在税收等方面实行种种优惠举措，一如其在培育汽车产业方面所采取的措施。这意味著，中国在劳动密集型制造业方面享有的强大竞争优势并不是很容易转移到高端产业中。
不错的买卖
很难估算美国跨国公司究竟从其中国业务中获取了多少利润。许多美国跨国公司将收益记入其设立在香港或海外其他低税率地区的公司帐上。不过，经济分析局可以提供一些初略的数据。尽管美国公司上个世纪80年代在华业务出现亏损，而且90年代大部分时间内仅获得很少的利润，但美国公司公布的数据显示，它们1999年从其在华关联公司获得的净利润高达7.55亿美元，而且在2003年前3个季度中，这个数字已增长了一倍。如果加上其香港关联公司的利润，美国公司2003年前3个季度来自大中华地区的利润总额高达51.6亿美元，该数字与来自日本的利润额相当。
麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)教授黄亚生(Huang Yasheng, 音)表示，美国人正在从中国获得越来越多的利润。他对目前这种外资及国有企业以牺牲中国企业家利益为代价来获取好处的商业模式颇有微词。他表示，中国企业制造著不计其数的低附加值产品，但这仅仅是一种数量上的奇迹，而不是价值意义上的一种奇迹－－美国人从中国不仅获得廉价商品，而且还以极低的成本借入资金。 从Frank Lin在中国东莞的家具厂情况看，美国人在中国的买卖看来非常不错。该工厂由一家台湾人拥有的名为Glory Oceanic Co.的公司经营，而他是该公司的总裁。Lin管理的工厂制造低成本、高质量的家具，这些产品能让美国公司获得较其他美国制造的产品更高的利润率。他管理的企业从美国进口木材，使用的油漆则来自东莞另一家美国人经营的工厂。后者则从美国进口化工原料（该工厂由荷兰的Akzo Nobel拥有）。
从中获益的还有华盛顿的贸易律师，而中国家具制造商并不希望他们能获得这种好处。Lin以及其他类似的工厂老板（大部分来自台湾）已出资200万美元用于为他们的企业进行辩护，藉此使自己的企业免遭反倾销指控。在举行初步听证会后，美国国际贸易委员会(International Trade Commission)本月已作出裁决，认定美国国内的家具制造商受到了进口产品的损害。美国商务部(Commerce Department)现在必须认定这种损害是否是因为中国制造商非法定价所致，并决定是否向进口产品征收理论上至多可达440%的关税。
积极应对 为了制定应对策略，中国家具制造商已成立一个"辩护委员会"，并在东莞某酒店举行会议。在去年的某次聚会中，该委员会主席宣读了一份最初提出反倾销提议的美国公司名单，并要求会员中向这些美国公司供货的工厂老板举手，Lin共计四次举手。当时还有其他许多人举手，结果显示，一半以上抱怨中国进口产品的美国家具公司本身就是进口商。
Lin表示，美国买家来到中国，并在与卖家谈判时不断砍价，然后却抱怨卖家售价太低。他的仓库中堆满了Hooker订购的装著家具的大箱子。
Hooker的首席执行长保罗?汤姆斯(Paul Toms)表示，他也加入了反倾销请愿书的签名活动，藉此显示出对员工的公平，他指出，该公司只是针对卧室家具产品。Hooker以及其他反倾销请愿书的支持者是美国人所使用的大部分卧室家具的制造商。汤姆斯表示，他们最不希望此举让中国人以为他们是在反对中国人，因为来自亚洲的进口是该公司成长的全部动力，也是过去几年公司利润的主要来源。他表示，中国既是威胁，也是机会所在。
Lin和他的同事表示，他们已考虑推迟向那些在反倾销请愿书上签名的美国公司发货。为了避免业务受到重创，Hooker和其他进口商已急忙派遣高级管理人士前往中国，以平息供货商的怨气。在致Lin的电子邮件中，汤姆斯称，尽管Hooker参与了对中国不公平贸易的指控，但他本人认为林并没有做任何违法或不道德的生意。
那些在东莞的家具厂、油漆厂和相关企业工作的美国人自有他们的评论。某天下班后，满脸汉水、身上黏著木屑的凯伦?兰宁(Karen Lanning)和比尔?瓦德(Bill Ward)开始探讨起美国进口商反倾销背后的理论问题。他们是来自美国北卡罗来纳州经验丰富的家具制造工人，现在都在东莞的一家家具厂工作，负责质量监管。
现年52岁的瓦德称，如此愚蠢的举动，一定是政治因素的介入所致。49岁的兰宁则表示，看见国内家具公司的工人失业，这真让她揪心，但美国经历了40和50年代的繁荣后，才演变成今天的局面。兰宁是在美国国内家具厂开始接连关闭后才到中国工作的。她指责美国家具公司未能直面经济现实，并表示，这是一种产业的进化过程，人们无法阻止它。
