A Fear Amid China's Car Boom
Five salesmen in dark blue suits snap to attention when visitors enter their Buick dealership. As more potential buyers arrive, the low hum of car talk -- broken by the occasional blare of a customer testing a horn -- begins to fill the showroom.
It's the sound of automobile sales in China, the fastest-growing major market and now the world's fourth biggest after the U.S., Japan and Germany. China's passenger-car sales jumped 55% in 2003 from the year before, according to an estimate from Automotive Resources Asia. They rose 61% in 2002. Analysts say this year also looks strong, with several forecasting sales to grow about 50%.
But down the road, the horizon is getting hazy. As the likes of General Motors Corp. of the U.S., Germany's Volkswagen AG, and Japan's Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. jockey for a share of the booming market, they are investing billions of dollars in China, ramping up production and launching new models to meet ambitious targets. China's auto market is also drawing local companies -- property developers, even a supplier of cleaning detergents -- to invest, produce and usually undercut their bigger-name competitors. The likely result, experts warn, is a pileup that will lead to slower sales and corporate casualties.
"We can't say a market is normal with 50% growth a year," says Zhou Liqun, publisher of Auto and Society Magazine and a consultant.
"It is impossible that everyone will have a wonderful future here," adds Ms. Zhou, who predicts shrinking profits will force at least one big foreign auto maker to retreat from China in the next few years, despite the heavy investments and heady sales forecasts.
At this Buick dealership, off a busy highway in eastern Beijing, there are signs of how intense competition has become. Upstairs, past a blue Buick Excelle, employees' sales are tracked on a big bulletin board and salaries are pegged tightly to performance targets. Right next door to the Buick showroom, people are filing into a different dealership that sells sporty Volkswagen Passats and Polo brand passenger sedans. Chinese families are so sensitive to price tags, and the least expensive buys in town, that dealers doubt they will ever return to the fat margins of the past.
"There is a lot of pressure on us," says Wang Hong, general manager of Beijing Qinghe Automobile Trade Co. Ltd., the company that owns the dealership. "Every year, it is a different market." More than in the past, Mr. Wang says he is throwing in free seat-covers, perfume bottles and other sweeteners to seal a deal. Even then, customers might go with the same model that may be priced lower at another lot, despite his authorized Buick dealership offering better after-sale service.
For now, China's market is hot enough for just about everybody. VW, which has the leading market share in China, and GM, a big rival, both saw sales grow more than 40% in 2003. But VW acknowledged that its market share had been cut to one-third amid intense competition, even as it trimmed prices on several models.
Price reductions have emerged as a common tactic in China to try to snag and preserve market share. Last year, there were four separate waves of price cuts for passenger cars, according to Hua Xue, director of Cheshi.com.cn, an Internet site that helps match sellers and buyers of cars. Mr. Hua figures that the average reduction was about 9% last year and predicts prices could drop another 8% this year. Those declines are prompting foreign auto makers to look for ways to cut costs to preserve profits.
Meanwhile, Chinese sales agents are bracing for more price battles. Mr. Wang and his top sales manager, Zhang Wei, believe the bulk of their profits in the future will come from servicing cars, not selling them. "Sales margins will thin. We can see that," says Mr. Wang, stepping gingerly through the dealership's garage in black wingtips. "But cars will always need to be maintained and repaired."
Mr. Wang could have in mind persnickety customers like Jiang Meng, a policeman who shopped at six different dealerships for a car. Mr. Jiang finally settled on a Sail because the GM sedan was affordable and offered good service guarantees. But after paying about $11,350 for the car, the policeman admits to pangs of buyer's remorse after last year's pervasive price reductions.
"If I knew that was going to happen, I'm not sure I would've made the same decision," he says.
GM, which has resisted industry pressure to cut prices, says it doesn't see a compressed profit picture. "We expect to continue to grow our sales in 2004 and are confident Buick dealers will remain profitable overall and experience continued healthy development," Joseph Liu, executive director in marketing and distribution for Shanghai GM, wrote in an e-mailed response to questions.
For many new models, demand continues to outstrip supply. On a recent afternoon, the husband-wife proprietors of a nearby dumpling restaurant came to Mr. Wang's showroom to check out a Buick Excelle, priced at $18,000. They have owned and sold five different cars, and now want to upgrade. They are even willing to wait the few months it will take before a more expensive model of the Excelle becomes available.
"We discussed this many, many times before agreeing," says Wu Lunhe, glancing at his wife inside the Buick. She grips the steering wheel and then happily blasts the horn. "We aren't going to change our minds now," she declares.
Coming to the aid of China's growing class of car buyers are new auto-friendly policies. Late last year, the Chinese government started approving auto-finance ventures that will compete with banks in extending credit to potential buyers. Experts say China is developing guidelines to promote a market for used cars, as well.
Yet the number of new cars hitting the streets presents a challenge for city planners. In Beijing, where wide boulevards often look like parking lots, the city government is seeking approval to spend $4.2 billion to build new roads and subway lines. Planners expect an additional 300,000 cars this year to be added to the 2.1 million vehicles already on the streets. In Shanghai, the municipal government has banned bicycles from some major streets to ease congestion. Such gridlock, some planners fear, could constrain economic growth.
Those problems don't bother Mr. Wang. Glancing at another young couple in his showroom about to finalize a sale, Mr. Wang asks: "How many cars does L.A. have, anyway?"
中国汽车市场隐忧初现
几位顾客走进一家别克(Buick)展厅，五位身穿深蓝色西服套装的推销员立刻上前迎候。展厅里的顾客慢慢多起来，低低的谈话声慢慢充斥了展厅，间或被顾客试车时按喇叭的声音所打断。
这正是中国当下随处可见的景象。中国汽车市场迅速崛起，已成为紧随美国、日本和德国之后的全球第四大汽车市场。据咨询机构亚洲汽车资源(Automotive Resources Asia)统计，中国2003年轿车销售额较上年激增55%，之前的2002年增幅更是高达61%。分析师们预计，今年仍将保持强劲势头，一些人预测，销售额增幅将达到50%左右。
但更长远的前景就不那么明朗了。美国通用汽车(General Motors Corp.)、德国大众汽车(Volkswagen AG)、日本丰田(Toyota Motor Corp.)和本田(Honda Motor Co.)等汽车公司为在蓬勃发展的中国汽车市场上争夺地盘正各显其能，动辄斥资数十亿美元扩大生产，并不断推出新车型以满足消费者日益更新的需求。不少国内企业也纷纷投身于汽车生产行业，它们当中有地产发展商，甚至还有清洁剂供应商的身影。这些国内企业纷纷投资生产汽车，从实力雄厚的竞争对手那里抢生意。专家们警告说，长此以往，将造成全行业产品积压，导致公司销售下降甚至关门大吉。
《汽车与社会杂志》(Auto and Society)发行人兼咨询师周立群说，一个年增幅高达50%的市场很难说是正常的。
她说，不可能每家汽车企业都能有美好的未来。她预计，尽管未来几年内汽车业会有大量资金投入，且销售预期强劲，但利润收缩将导致至少一家大型外资汽车生产商撤出中国市场。
就在我们前面提到的这家位于北京东部高速路旁的别克展厅里，从一些细节上可以看出，竞争已变得何等激烈。楼上，一辆蓝色的别克凯越(Buick Excelle)车旁，一块很大的告示牌上列著销售人员的销售业绩，这与员工的薪水直接挂钩。紧挨著这家别克展厅，大众帕萨特(Volkswagen Passats)和Polo的展厅里也是人满为患。中国顾客对价格极为敏感，他们会不辞辛苦地四处搜寻全城售价最低的车行。经销商们担心过去利润丰厚的好日子难以重现了。 这家车行的所属的汽车贸易公司Beijing Qinghe Automobile Trade Co. Ltd.总经理王宏(音译)说，压力的确很大，形势年年不同。他说，以前为促成交易，他经常向顾客免费赠送坐椅套、香水座和其他小礼品。但就算这样，顾客可能还是会到另外一家售价更低的车行去买同一款车，尽管他的车行有别克的授权，能提供更好的售后服务。
目前，中国车市一片火爆，似乎人人都想涉足其间。大众汽车在中国市场占据头把交椅，通用汽车虎视眈眈，它们在中国市场2003年的销售额增幅都超过了40%。但大众汽车承认，即使几款车都降了价，激烈的竞争仍然导致公司的市场占有率降至三分之一左右。
降价已经逐渐成为在中国占据并维持市场的常用策略。据汽车交易信息网站网上车市(Cheshi.com.cn)总监华雪称，去年国内轿车市场一共经历了四次降价。据他估算，去年轿车市场平均降价约9%，估计今年会再降8%左右。这一趋势促使国外汽车生产商们纷纷寻求其他方式来削减成本，维持利率。
同时，中国的汽车销售代理商们也将面临更多降价浪潮的冲击。王宏和他的销售经理张伟(音译)都认为，以后大部分利润将来自售后服务而非汽车销售。王宏说，销售利润肯定会降低，但车辆维修总是必不可少的。 王宏可能会记住像江猛(音译)那样的顾客。为了买一辆车，身为警察的江猛曾光顾了6家车行，最终才选定了一辆11,350美元的赛欧(Sail)，原因是通用的这款车价格适合他，而且还提供良好的售后服务担保。但他后来承认，去年的降价让他后悔莫及。
他说，如果事先知道会降价，他当时肯定不会买的。
通用汽车一直在试图抵制全行业的降价压力，称其利润前景不会受压。上海通用(Shanghai GM)市场营销和分销部门执行董事Joseph Liu在回复记者提问的电子邮件中表示，预计2004年上海通用销售额将继续增长，相信公司继续维持全面盈利势头，健康发展。
许多新车型依然供不应求。最近的一个午后时分，附近一家饺子馆的老板夫妇俩光顾了王宏的车行，他们想看一眼标价18,000美元的别克凯越。他们已经先后换了五次新车，现在还想再换一辆。有一款售价更高的凯越还要等几个月才能到货，而他们宁愿等。
瞟了一眼正坐在别克车里的妻子，吴仑和(音译)说，两人就此已经讨论了很久。他妻子抓著方向盘，高兴地按著喇叭。她坚定地表示，这次不会再改主意了。
新推出的利好政策也推动了中国购车阶层的日益壮大。去年末，中国政府批准成立购车融资企业，它们将与银行争夺潜在的购车族。专家们还表示，政府正在拟定促进二手车市场发展的条例。 然而，新车源源不断上路，也给城市规划部门带来了新的挑战。一些人担心城市道路规划落后会限制汽车业的发展，北京宽阔的车道常常看起来像是个巨大的停车场。北京市政府正在申请投资42亿美元用于新建公路和地铁。城市规划部门预计，在现有的210万辆轿车外，今年还将新增30万辆车。为了缓解交通拥堵，上海市政府已经在一些主要路段禁止自行车通行。
但这些问题对王宏来说却不值一提。看著他的车行里另外一对年轻夫妇差不多要敲定交易了，他反问道，洛杉矶有多少车啊，北京这才算什么？
