What Should Really Happen In the Tech World This Year
In the last edition I told you about what to expect this year from tech. But I feel I may have short-changed you. This is what I think should really happen, if there was justice and an Internet god. (To set the tone, the first one is actually true.)
In December 2003, an industry spamming -- sorry, e-mail marketing -- association issued guidelines for spammers -- sorry, marketers -- to determine the key attributes of e-mail which end users may wish to receive:
o Anticipated: the recipient looks forward to hearing from them;
o Personal: the messages are directly related to the recipient;
o Relevant: the marketing is about something the recipient is interested in;
o Opt-out: the recipient has the option to unsubscribe at any time.
Now, looking forward. Hewlett-Packard announces in January that it will increase the price of printers to a more realistic figure, but will reduce the cost of ink cartridges from an average $30 each to a more realistic $2.50. Epson quickly enters the fray, informing users that, in fact, contrary to previous reports, recycled cartridges work fine with its printers. Canon releases a statement the same day, encouraging users to refill their cartridges using a kitchen funnel and ordinary pen ink, or if none is available, squid ink. "Both work just as well," the statement says. Asked why the company had not mentioned this option before, a spokesman says: "We forgot." Squid sales quadruple, and many offices begin keeping them as pets.
The manufacturers of an exciting but controversial new technology called Radio Frequency Identification, or RFID, publicly acknowledge in March the fears of privacy advocates that these small radio tags contain and transmit too much information about individuals and the products they buy, carry or wear. Company officials announce they will hand out free RFID-readers to customers, allowing them to read detailed information about any product on display, including how much it really cost to make, what it really contains, any outstanding lawsuits against the company and whether the product was assembled using slave labor. The readers prove extremely popular with customers, who leave shops wide-eyed and empty-handed.
Hand-phone manufacturer Nokia enters the cloning business in April, producing the first human with a cellphone already attached to one ear. A spokesman says: "Once they perfected growing an ear on a rat, we saw the potential for the mobile industry. Who doesn't have their cellphone stuck to their ear these days, anyway?"
Spam laws kick in, reducing spam to 30% of all e-mails, down from 50%. In response, the international spammers' -- sorry, marketing -- association in May clarifies its guidelines for its long-suffering members to determine the key attributes of e-mail that end users may wish to receive:
o Anticipated: the recipient doesn't exactly look forward to hearing from them, but doesn't reach for a firearm or other offensive weapon upon hearing from them either;
o Personal: the messages are directly related to the recipient, or at least to the particular market segment that person represents, be it based on religion, ethnicity, income or hair color;
o Relevant: the marketing is about something the recipient is interested in, or at least has expressed an interest in, measured by, for example, the recipient walking past a poster or billboard and not emitting expletives or exhibiting other signs of distress;
o Opt-out: the recipient has the option to unsubscribe at any time, involving, but not limited to, visiting a Web page that may, accidentally, record that person's e-mail address and then pass it on to another association member who may, at some point in the future, judge that person to have by so doing expressed an interest in receiving e-mails relevant to their interests (see above).
In a farsighted decision, Microsoft says in June it will combat software piracy by allowing users to decide what price to pay for its new Microsoft Office suite. A spokesman says: "We recognize that some folk in some less advantaged countries can't afford the $3 million-per-box price tag, so we'll let them pay what they think is right. We just hope that users realize this will hurt our bottom line and it's going to be hard for us to survive doing it this way." The new campaign is accompanied by billboard posters showing a shoeless Bill Gates wearing a torn T-shirt and a dirty sarong. Sales spike, as do donations to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Mr. Gates, attending Comdex 2004, is showered with quarters and cries of: "Buy yourself some pants."
The pop-up ad industry, under pressure from irate users, in July invents a new kind of product. Called the Hip-Not-Icky, the ad window appears on the left-hand side of your screen, then swings gently to the other side, pendulum-like, and back again. The rocking continues until you are lulled into a dreamlike state in which you decide that, after all, you could do with another cable descrambler.
Apple releases its first mobile phone in August. It's plain white, has no buttons and looks like an egg. The display is a hologram that hovers above the shell. All navigation is controlled by the user's thoughts: Simply by thinking of a person, the unit will dial that person's number. The design sweeps numerous awards, but all units of the first batch have to be recalled due to a design flaw: The surface cracks easily, and white and yellow goo leaks out. Long-term users complain of hearing clucking noises from inside.
So-called Nigerian scammers -- e-mail fraudsters that try to lure you into parting with large amounts of cash with a sob story involving even larger amounts of cash -- hit on a new ruse. Realizing there may be few folk left in the world not wise to their scams, in September they send out e-mails claiming to be Nigerian e-mail scammers who have successfully ripped off innocent folk with authentic-sounding names like Gumby McJones and Grant Thornton Price O'Waterhouse Coopers Lybrand. Unfortunately, the e-mail goes on, that money is now languishing in a bank vault in Switzerland and needs a home. You, dear reader, know what you have to do and the money will be yours. Surprisingly large numbers of people fall for the scam (known as the Nigerian Scammers' Nigerian Scam), most of them, coincidentally, from Nigeria.
Virus writers are also busy in 2004. In November they invent a new virus called Brian which invades computers, scours the user's calendar and harvests any birthdays recorded. It then matches the birthday with that person's e-mail address and prepares a birthday message which it sends out on the user's behalf on the appropriate day. It then hijacks 300 other computers and sends out similar e-mails to the same person. Internet traffic spikes, but surprisingly few infected users complain. Absenteeism, divorce rates and reports of domestic violence plummet until Symantec and other antivirus manufacturers update their libraries and Microsoft issues a patch. Spoilsports.
And finally in December, laws and other restrictions have reduced spam to 15% of all e-mails. In response, the international marketing association issues a further clarification to remaining members to determine the key attributes of e-mail that end users may wish to receive:
o Anticipated: the recipient has not actively tried to hunt down the marketer in question and threaten him or his family with dire consequences for the message, such as accompanying him to a Boney M concert;
o Personal: the messages include use of the addressee's name (or nickname, such as Bud, Brother, Friend, Dude, or Hey, You!);
o Relevant: the marketing is about a product or service that is relevant to a human being (or his or her pet) living in the early 21st century;
o Opt-out: the recipient has the option to switch off his computer, get into his car and travel to the nearest airport, obtain a ticket to Tonga and visit the marketer's headquarters just off Main Street (behind the Quickee Mart, just past the municipal dump) to ask for his name to be immediately and unconditionally removed from the marketer's mailing list.
2004年科技业奇谈
在上一期专栏里，我曾经告诉你们明年科技领域会发生哪些变化。但我觉得我也许欺骗你们了。假如说还有正义和一个主宰互联网的神的话，那么以下是我真正认为会出现的变化。（为了让语气严肃点，我说到正义时是真诚的。）
2003年12月，一个垃圾邮件行业协会（哦，对不起，是电子邮件营销行业）颁布了针对垃圾邮件制造者（对不起，是电子邮件营销者）的指导方针，要求明确电子邮件的关键属性，这可能是终端用户希望看到的：
--期待邮件(Anticipated)：指收信人盼望收到的邮件。
--私人邮件(Personal)：与收信人直接相关的邮件。 --相关邮件(Relevant)：营销的产品是收信人感兴趣的。
--选择邮件(Opt-out)：收信人有权在任何时候取消订阅邮件。
现在我们开始展望未来。惠普公司(Hewlett-Packard)在1月份宣布将把打印机的价格提高到一个更现实的水平，但将把墨盒的成本从每只平均30美元的水平压低到更实际的2.50美元。爱普生(Epson)立刻应战，通知用户称，与先前的报导截然相反，实际上可循环利用的墨盒与其打印机配合良好。佳能公司(Canon)在同一天也发表了一项声明，鼓励用户用厨房里的漏斗和普通的钢笔墨水重新填充墨盒，如果没有这两样东西，甚至可以用墨斗鱼的汁液。声明称，两种方法都管用。当记者问为何佳能公司先前并没有提到这种办法的时候，发言人回答称，他们遗忘了。于是，墨斗鱼的销量增长3倍，许多办公室都开始养墨斗鱼作为宠物。
到3月份，无线频率确认设备(Radio Frequency Identification, RFID)（这是一项既令人兴奋又充满争议的新技术）的制造者公开承认了隐私权倡导者的担 。他们担心这些微型的无线电金属片包含和传送了太多有关个人的信息，以及有关他们购买、携带或穿戴产品的信息。公司管理人士宣布，他们将向消费者发放免费的RFID 阅读器，让他们通过显示屏阅读有关任何产品的详细信息，包括制造这些产品真正需要花费的成本、产品真正包含的材料、针对产品生产商的一些著名诉讼案，以及产品是否是用奴隶劳动装配起来的等等。结果，阅读器在消费者中间大受欢迎，最后他们在购物离开商店时，全部都目瞪口呆、两手空空。
手机制造商诺基亚(Nokia)在4月份进入了克隆行业，制造出第一个耳朵上生来就带著一个手机的人。公司发言人称，一旦别人完善了在老鼠身上克隆人耳朵的技术，他们就认为有开展手机行业的潜力。在如今这个时代，谁不在耳边放个手机呢？
垃圾邮件法颁布，使所有邮件中垃圾邮件的比例下降到30%，低于先前的50%。作为回应，国际垃圾邮件制造者协会（哦，对不起，是营销者）在5月份重新阐释了要求长期备受煎熬的协会会员明确电子邮件关键属性的那些指导方针：
--期待邮件：指收信人并不期望收到这些邮件，但是如果收到此类邮件，也不会去找拿手枪或其他攻击性武器。
--私人邮件：与收信人直接相关的邮件。或者至少是与个人所代表的特定市场区隔相联系，不管它是基于宗教、种族、收入还是头发颜色。
--相关邮件：营销的产品是收信人感兴趣的。或者至少表示过兴趣，衡量的标准参见下例：比如收信人路过一个海报或公告牌，没有发出咒骂或者显示其他痛苦的迹象。
--选择邮件：收信人有权在任何时候取消订阅邮件，包括但不仅限于以下事例：某人为了取消订阅而访问一个网页，可能意外地被记录下个人邮箱地址，然后这个地址被转给协会的其他成员，而在将来的某个时候，协会的其他成员可能得出结论：这个人通过这种方式表达了收到类似电子邮件的兴趣。
微软公司(Microsoft)做出了一项有远见的决定，在6月份宣布将通过由用户决定新的Microsoft Office软件包价格的办法打击软件盗版。公司发言人称，公司意识到在某些欠发达国家的一些人们无法负担每个软件包300万美元的价格，因此他们将让这些人支付自认为合理的价格。公司希望用户能够意识到这样将影响公司利润，这样做公司将难以继续生存。伴随这次新举动的还有张贴海报，上面画著比尔?盖茨(Bill Gates)光著脚，穿著破T恤衫和一条脏兮兮的布裙。公司销售额上涨了，同时捐给比尔和美琳达-盖茨基金(Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation)的捐献也增加了。比尔?盖茨在参加2004年计算机分销商展览会的时候，大量的25美分硬币和怒吼声包围了他："给你自己去买些裤子吧！"
在愤怒的用户的重压下，弹出式广告行业于7月份发明了一种新产品，称作Hip-Not-Icky。这种广告窗口首先出现在你屏幕的左手边，然后慢慢地移向另一边，然后再回来，像钟摆一样摇来摇去。这种摇摆将一直持续，直到它令你心平气和，进入一种梦幻般的状态，相信你毕竟可以用另外一个有线解码器解决问题。
苹果公司(Apple)在8月份推出第一代移动电话。这种手机是纯白色，没有按键，看上去像鸡蛋一样。显示屏是一个盘旋在蛋壳上方的全息图景。所有的使用过程都由用户的思维控制：只要你想到某个人，手机就会自动拨打那个人的电话号码。这种设计囊括了众多奖项，但第一批生产的所有手机还是不得不因为一个设计缺陷而召回：手机表面非常易碎，黄白之物会从中流淌出来。一些长期用户甚至抱怨说听到了手机里面咯咯的叫声。
所谓的尼日利亚垃圾邮件制造者（电子邮件诈骗者，他们试图用一个牵涉到一大笔现金的悲惨故事从你那里骗走大笔现金）想到了一个新的诡计。这些骗子意识到世界上没有几个人傻到看不穿他们的伎俩了，于是在9月份他们发出大批邮件，声称自己是成功地欺骗了无辜人们的尼日利亚垃圾邮件制造者。他们会用一些听上去像真名的人名，包括冈比-麦克琼斯、格兰特-桑顿、普里斯-沃特豪斯、库珀-李布兰德等等。这封信继续写道，很不幸，这些钱现在正呆在瑞士一家银行的金库里，需要寻找一个去处。你，亲爱的读者，知道该怎么做，这笔钱将归你所有。令人意外的是，有大批人栽在此类邮件上，凑巧的是，这些邮件大多数都来自尼日利亚。 病毒程序设计者在2004年也忙的不亦乐乎。11月，他们发明了一种名为Brian的新病毒，这种病毒侵入电脑，搜索用户的日程表，纪录下表上所有的生日信息。然后，这种病毒会将生日与电子邮件地址进行比对，最后以该电脑用户的名义在恰当的一天将一封祝贺生日的邮件寄给过生日的人。随后，这种病毒侵入了另外300台电脑，并向同一个人挤出了类似的邮件。互联网流量猛增，但是令人意外的是，感染此病毒的用户几乎没有人抱怨。矿工、离婚和家庭暴力现象急剧减少，这种情况直到Symantec和其他反病毒软件制造者更新了病毒库、微软发布了一个补丁才结束。真令人扫兴。
最后，在12月份，法律及其他限制措施将垃圾邮件数量比例降至15%。作为回应，"电子邮件营销协会"向仅存的会员再发出信函，以确认用户希望受到的邮件的一些属性。
--期待邮件: 收件人没有追著"营销协会"穷追猛打，也没有拿发送此邮件将导致一些可怕的后果来威胁邮件发送者和他的家人。
--私人邮件：包含收信人名字的邮件（或者绰号，比如布德、兄弟、朋友、花花公子或者喂，你！）。
--相关邮件：营销的产品或服务是与生活在21世纪初期的人有关的（或者是人的宠物）。
--选择邮件：收信人有权选择关掉电脑，钻进汽车并赶到最近的一个机场，买一张去汤加的飞机票，并访问营销者在Main Street旁边的总部，然后要求把他的名字立即、无条件地从营销者的邮件名单上删除。
阿门！
