China Prods Its Consumers To Use Plastic
China's government wants its billion-plus citizens to start using a new phrase: "Charge it."
In hopes of building a credit-card business in advance of the summer Olympics in Beijing in 2008, Chinese officials have told larger merchants in the capital city that at least half of them must accept credit or debit cards by the end of next year -- and no fewer than 90% by 2008. Shanghai has set similar goals for its big stores.
Consumers, meanwhile, are being enticed with monthly "lucky-draw" prizes, including a new car, whenever they use a card instead of cash.
At a time when much of the industrialized world is trying to come to grips with a serious consumer-debt problem, the world's largest nation hopes to persuade consumers to charge -- even though analysts say China's financial system could be vulnerable if consumer debt balloons.
Yuwa Hedrick-Wong, MasterCard International Inc.'s chief economist in Asia, says Chinese banks already are weighed down by bad loans and can't afford the extra burden. "A consumer-credit bubble would finish many of them," he says. "They have to get this right."
Certainly Beijing doesn't want to emulate the South Korean government's drive to increase credit-card usage. Four years ago, in an effort to break the Korean economy's dependence on exports, Seoul required most retailers to honor credit cards, so that now 87% of all shops are plastic-friendly. The South Korean government also offered consumers tax deductions for purchases made with credit cards.
The result was an explosion in credit-card purchases and an initial boon to the economy and the banks. But this easy credit eventually caused a spike in personal bankruptcies and bank write-offs of bad debt that has hurt the Korean economy this year.
So why the rush to charge in China?
In part, officials are bracing for an anticipated surge in foreign credit-card spending during the Olympics and the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai. Officials want to be sure a system is in place to handle it. The government also is eager to see Chinese banks grab their share of this lucrative business over the next two years before foreign banks are allowed to compete inside China in issuing credit cards for purchase in the local currency.
But Chinese store owners and consumers are wary. Only about one million Chinese have credit cards, 24 million have debit cards that offer limited borrowing, and only about 4% of the nation's merchants accept cards.
Even some of the shop owners who accept cards discourage their use. "I ask people to pay in cash if they can so I can avoid the fees" that banks charge stores on card purchases, says Li Xiao Qian, manager of 30 degrees C, a trendy clothing boutique in Shanghai.
In hopes of wooing people like Ms. Qian, Beijing has said it will bestow awards on retailers that rack up a high number of credit-card sales. The government also has told banks to give certain retailers an introductory one-month period free of fees.
Yet a number of technical hurdles remain. Credit cards issued by banks in southern China, for instance, don't always work in the north, a situation the government is trying to address. China is accelerating plans to implement a common technical standard to read cards, but much work remains. Outside of major metropolitan areas, card acceptance is low.
Fan Hong, manager of the upscale Hua An Hairdressing Salon in Shanghai, says the technical snafus mean that out-of-town customers who spend hundreds of dollars on hair and skin treatments and products sometimes find their cards are rejected. "That causes problems," she says.
Just as formidable are long-held consumer attitudes. China's central bank says that card spending accounted for only 2.7% of overall consumer spending in 2001, and only about 5% of Chinese cardholders carry a balance. That compares with 75% of U.S. cardholders who carry a balance at least once a year, according to the Nilson Report, a payment-card industry newsletter based in Oxnard, Calif.
Sheila Ji, a 25-year-old salesperson, was shopping for a leather jacket in a Shanghai department store recently. She has a credit card but says she planned to use cash if she decided to buy something. Why? She doesn't want to worry about paying the bill later.
Ye Rong, a news anchor on Shanghai television, uses her card more regularly, on bigger purchases like clothes as well as for some daily needs, such as food. But she stops short of carrying a balance. "I use it for convenience," she says. "But I prefer not to borrow money."
Some younger Chinese, though, seem more willing to take on debt. Mao Jia Yi, a college student in Shanghai, says she would need a guarantee from her parents to qualify for a card with overdraft protection, a form of limited credit. Yet she can hardly wait. "Then when I want to buy something, I can just buy it," she says.
Some retailers smell opportunity. Shops near the historic Bund district that cater to overseas tourists are among those that are becoming more plastic-friendly. "They help increase sales, especially to foreign buyers," says Wang Youzhen, a cashier at Shanghai Book City. The store, the city's largest bookseller, has been accepting cards for five years, though Ms. Wang estimates that only about 10% or so of its customers charge their purchases.
But even in this relatively wealthy city, most merchants resist spending money to install a credit-card system and paying the bank fees. "The merchant owner is used to dealing with cash," says Albert Shiung, Visa International's China country manager. "It takes some persistence from the banks to convince them to take an additional payment vehicle. This kind of effort will take time."
Success also could depend on prodding Chinese banks to issue cards. So far, they have been slow to embrace credit, but looming competition may provide the spark. Beginning in 2007, foreign banks will be allowed to offer cards in which bills are calculated in the Chinese currency. Already, Citigroup Inc. has taken a 5% stake in China's Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and, subject to regulatory approval, can increase its stake to 24.9%.
中国拥抱"刷卡"时代
中国政府希望13亿国人学会一个新的词汇："刷卡"。
北京的官员已经告诉该市的各大商家，他们希望到明年底，有一半的商家都可以使用信用卡或借记卡刷卡消费，这个比例到2008年时要达到90%。上海市也为各大商店定出了类似目标。两地的政府为了鼓励人们减少使用现金，推出了只要刷卡消费就可参加幸运大抽奖的奖励活动，奖品中还包括一辆崭新的汽车。
为什么要急于转向刷卡消费？部分原因在于，中国正在为2008年奥运会和2010年上海世界博览会期间外国人刷卡消费届时将猛增做好准备。官方希望到时候金融体系可以游刃有余地处理突然增加的刷卡消费需求。而且政府希望在今后两年中，国内银行能够赶在向外资银行开放之前在这块利润丰厚的市场中站稳脚跟。
但中国的商家和消费者似乎对此却持谨慎态度。持有信用卡的中国人只有100万左右，另外还有2,400万人持有借款额度非常有限的借记卡。目前，只有4%的商家接受信用卡，但即便是这些商户也对刷卡消费缺乏兴趣。上海一家休闲服饰时装店30 degrees C的经理李晓前(Li Xiao Qian, 音译)说，他要求客户尽可能支付现金，这样他可以少交费。
采取措施鼓励消费者举债消费是不是明智之举？人们对此不禁心生疑虑。中国的许多银行都背负著沉重的不良贷款负担，如果再碰上信用卡债务拖欠与日俱增，他们将叫苦不迭。万事达卡国际组织(MasterCard International)驻亚洲的首席经济学家王月魂(Yuwa Hedrick-Wong)称，消费信贷泡沫可能会成为中国许多银行的终结者。他们需要正确地对待这一问题，因为这至关重要。
当然，北京方面并不想照搬韩国鼓励使用信用卡的做法。4年前，为了弱化本国经济对出口的依赖，韩国政府要求大多数商家都接受信用卡，导致目前该国有87%的商家都对信用卡欣然笑纳，而刷卡的消费者还可以享受韩国政府提供的税收优惠。
最初，刷卡消费的猛增助了韩国经济一臂之力，发卡行也因此获益匪浅。分析师预计，至去年，15岁以上的韩国国民人均拥有4张信用卡。但宽松的信用卡举债政策最终导致韩国个人破产案飙升，银行冲销巨额坏帐，从而拖累了韩国今年的经济增长。
与此类似，饱受坏帐之苦的中国大陆银行也希望将推动信用卡业务发展作为一根救命稻草，帮助他们重振资产状况，而不用仰仗政府的援手。
在信用卡业务中，银行的收入来自年费和交易佣金（每笔交易额的1%-3%）。举债的持卡人需要向银行支付高额利息，威士国际组织(VISA International)中国区总经理熊安平(Albert Shiung)称，最有利可图的消费贷款是信用卡透支，它的利息要高于按揭抵押或汽车贷款。
在推动信用卡的应用方面，中国政府似乎还有与韩国一样的初衷：对偷漏税的企业施加压力，因为信用卡的使用将使他们难以再轻松得逞。
不过有若干理由相信中国不会步韩国消费举债过度的后尘。韩国将刷卡消费作为让本国经济走出低迷泥潭的一种途径，但中国经济目前的年增长率超过7%，政府自9月份以来一直在极力压制资本投资和银行放贷的增长势头，以免经济出现过热。在这种环境下，倡导使用信用卡更多的是为了在鼓励人们消费的同时，减少现金的使用。
中国的个人信贷观念也更深入人心，而韩国的银行贷款更多的是面向企业。自1999年以来，中国的中产阶级大举借债购买汽车或住房，许多人已习惯了分期偿还贷款。而且，中国政府显然还吸取了韩国的教训，在建立信用评估体系之前避免盲目冒进。上海资信有限公司(Shanghai Credit Information Services Co.)聘请了汇丰银行(HSBC)和渣打银行(Standard Chartered)等外资银行作为其顾问，从1999年起就开始收集个人信用数据，目前其数据库已包含350万消费者的信用资料，每天收到约4,000份信用查询申请，其中以来自中国大陆银行的为主。
中国已建立了更正规的信用评估机构，中国央行也计划在全国开设信用信息办事处。这些举措使得中国远远走在了韩国和亚洲其他国家的前面，不过另一方面，银行对与竞争对手分享过多信息的担忧也减缓了中国信用体系发展的进程。 同时，中国政府还制定了大量的优惠措施来扩大信用卡的接受范围。政府已经表示，将向刷卡销售业绩上佳的商家提供奖励，具体措施仍有待公布。同时，政府也建议银行为部分商家提供一个月的免费期。而接受信用卡消费的医院等公用事业机构也可以享受银行提供的3个月免佣金期。
不过目前还横亘著大量的技术壁垒：中国南方的信用卡在北方不能畅通无阻，中小城市的信用卡接受度并不高。中国政府正在加快实施通用读卡技术标准的计划。
上海华安美发厅(Hua An Hairdressing Salon)经理范红(Fan Hong, 音译)称，外地的顾客有时购买上百美元的美发和护肤用品，但有时候他们的信用卡却拒绝付费，这确实是个问题。
另一个令人头疼的问题是消费观念的转变。中国央行称，2001年，刷卡消费额仅占消费者支出总额的2.7%。此外，据信用卡行业杂志Nilson Report报导，中国的信用卡用户只有大约5%透支，而在美国，有75%的持卡人每年至少透支一次。
不过，在上海新开的出售高档进口服装等商品的购物中心，也许信用卡和借记卡更受欢迎，而外滩附近的商家也对外国游客递过来的信用卡日益笑迎不拒。 上海书城(Shanghai Book City)的收银员王优珍(音译)称，接受信用卡可以提高销售额，尤其是招揽外国顾客。这家上海的书城在5年前就已接受信用卡，不过王优珍预计刷卡购书的顾客仅占10%左右。
但即使在这座相对富余的城市里，大多商家仍不愿花钱安装信用卡系统，并向银行支付费用。威士的熊安平称，银行需要花费一定的时间来说服商家接受信用卡系统，因为商家们已习惯了现金交易。
威士在互联网和当地媒体上提供了培训计划，详细阐述信用卡的应用模式。该公司称，目前中国大陆有50万用户持有威士的双币卡，这一数字相当于1年前的5倍。
从明年开始，中国大陆的游客将可以在香港使用人民币信用卡，香港居民也可以持人民币信用卡在大陆消费。
信用卡能否成功推行还取决于中国大陆银行普及信用卡的意愿，目前他们对推广这种潜力利润丰厚的产品并不热衷。不过从2007年开始，外资银行将可发行当地货币信用卡，这种竞争压力可能起到刺激作用。
近期，花旗集团(Citigroup)收购了上海浦东发展银行股份有限公司(Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. Ltd., 简称：浦发银行) 5%的股权(有待监管机构批准)，而且在2006至2008年期间，该集团还可将持股比例进一步增至24.9%。浦发银行准备在年底前推出信用卡业务，为其提供技术支持的正是市场经验丰富、分销渠道广阔的花旗集团。可以这么说，中国消费领域中的现金与信用卡之争目前还只是刚拉开了帷幕而已。
