India Economy Is in Best Shape In 50 Years, Minister Declares
- India's economy hasn't looked better since the country's independence over half a century ago, and its impressive pace of expansion is likely to be maintained for the next several years, said Finance Minister Jaswant Singh .
"The fundamentals of the Indian economy today are such as to give one the confidence to assert that they have not been better for the last 52 years," said Mr. Singh, speaking at the India Economic Summit organized by the World Economic Forum.
Indeed, the government and several private economists are forecasting growth in gross domestic product of more than 7% in the current financial year, which began in April. If those estimates are correct, India would post one of its most rapid growth rates since independence and emerge as one of Asia's best performers.
Mr. Singh said that the high growth rate is sustainable, and not just a result of good rains this year after a drought shriveled growth to 4.3% in the fiscal year ended 2003.
"I don't believe it's cyclical. It's based on fundamentals," said Mr. Singh, a former Foreign Minister who has rarely spoken at length about the economy since he took charge of the Finance portfolio in mid-2002.
"The growth pattern is ascending ... In the present decade, I do feel that it will move further and it will average 6% to 7% on a decadal average," he said.
However, Mr. Singh noted that India's large budget deficit continues to be a worry. The combined deficit of the federal and state governments is more than 10% of gross domestic product -- a figure that multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have repeatedly voiced concern over.
Mr. Singh said that the government is committed to containing the fiscal deficit, and its finances are looking healthier. "I have already witnessed a much greater sense of restraint and responsibility among the states ... In a few months from now, in February, you will find we have been able to correct very greatly the movement of the fiscal deficit."
India's finance ministers traditionally present their budgets in parliament at the end of February every year.
Urging Indians to do their part and spend more money, Mr. Singh said that the government intends to continue with its economic reforms in the banking and insurance sectors and further increase spending on infrastructure to sustain the growth momentum.
Mr. Singh also assured more than 100 businesspeople from around the world that the government's program of privatizing unprofitable state-run companies will continue, despite the recent setback when a Supreme Court ruling stalled the sale of two of India's largest privatization candidates.
"You shouldn't be disheartened," said Mr. Singh. "I am very glad that the Supreme Court has said come back to us, we will re-examine it."
Mr. Singh sounded upbeat on India's other macroeconomic indicators as well, noting the comfortable foreign-exchange reserves, low interest rates, growing exports and benign inflation.
印度经济处于50年多来最佳时期
印度财政部长亚什万特?辛哈(Jaswant Singh)称，印度经济正处于该国自半个多世纪前独立以来的最好时期，其令人瞩目的经济扩张速度仍将会维持数年。
辛哈在世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)主办的印度经济峰会(India Economic Summit)上说，印度经济基本面如此强劲，可以肯定的说，印度经济正处于过去52年以来最好的时期。
事实上，印度政府和数名经济学家预计，在始于4月份的当前财政年度印度国内生产总值增长速度将超过7%。如果预期得以实现，印度经济将取得独立以来的最快增长速度，并成为亚洲表现最突出的经济体之一。
辛哈称，经济高增长率是可以持续的，并不是因为今年雨量充足才有如此突出表现。在2002-2003财年，乾旱导致印度经济增长率降至4.3%。
辛哈说，“我不认为增长是周期性的。目前增长由基本面因素推动。”辛哈曾担任印度外交部长，自2002年年中就任财政部长以来，他很少公开阐述印度经济表现。
他说，“经济保持增长势头...在当前10年，我深信印度经济将会继续增长，10年的平均增速将为6%-7%。”
但是辛哈指出，印度庞大的预算赤字仍是一个隐忧。联邦政府和各邦预算总额超过国内生产总值的10%－－世界银行(World Bank)和国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)已对此发出了多次警告。
辛哈说，印度政府正努力控制财政赤字，其财政状况正在好转。印度财政部长一般在每年2月末向议会提交预算报告。
辛哈敦促印度人各尽其力，增加支出。他说，政府打算继续对银行业和保险业进行改革，并继续增加对基础设施的支出以维持经济增长势头。
