FED WATCH:China Imports Mostly Good For US - Chicago Fed
At a sensitive time in the trade relationship between China and the U.S., researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago say China's rising factory imports to the U.S. are, on balance, a good thing for the American economy.
In a report released as part of the bank's November report on economic developments, bank economists William Testa , Jay Liao and Alexei Zelenev argue that China's rapid economic growth has in fact benefited U.S. consumers.
"For some U.S. companies, the opening up of the Chinese market represents an opportunity for growth in exports of U.S. manufacturing goods and services, or for investment and production in China," they added.
Meanwhile, "the growth in imports from China is challenging domestic producers to lower costs to remain competitive," they wrote. And while it's true that the U.S. manufacturing base has been having troubles, those woes are related primarily to overcapacity and the weak economic circumstances of the last several years, according to the report.
China's export prowess has become an increasingly contentious political issue that has played a starring role in dealings between officials of both countries at recent high level gatherings.
The U.S. has pushed China to adopt a more flexible foreign exchange system as a way to address the trade imbalance, as domestic manufacturers have argued China's currency is undervalued and undercutting what they can reasonably charge for their goods.
The role Chinese imports play in keeping domestic prices contained is also controversial.
Federal Reserve official have argued since last spring the greatest threat to economic growth is that already weak inflation levels may soften further. That assessment is central to why so many economists believe the Fed will be keeping interest rates low for some time, even as domestic growth is revving up.
Red Storm Rising
For the Chicago Fed researchers, the shift in the trading relationship between the U.S. and China has been dramatic. Overall trade volume between the two nations has expanded at a 12.5% annual average between 1997 and 2002. That's around double the pace of trade volume growth seen with Mexico over the same period, a nation that enjoys free trade with the U.S.
While U.S. exports to China have fueled part of that rise in volume, "China's imports into the U.S. have easily outpaced U.S. exports to China," the analysts wrote. They say that China's manufactured imports in 2001 stood at 2.7% of the U.S. domestic market, up from 0.4% in 1989.
But this apparently disproportionate relationship is not necessarily coming at the expense of the U.S.' manufacturing base, as many currently argue.
In part, it's about satisfying a growing U.S. market. The researchers said "rather than displacing domestic production...rising imports may serve rising demand for some types of goods in the home country."
The paper also notes that as long as it's based on real production cost differences between both countries, "import displacement frees up resources and workers in low-value production to pursue higher-value and higher-skilled activities in the U.S. economy, thereby raising average wages and living standards."
At the same time, the Chicago Fed researchers believe that the troubles in the U.S. manufacturing sector are largely homegrown.
"The bulk of the current U.S. manufacturing weakness cannot be attributed to rising imports and outsourcing" but rather to what's been a generally a weak overall U.S. economy, along with a glut of capacity. Weak growth in other areas of the world has also depressed the appetite for American made factory goods, the report says.
美国从中国进口利多弊少
在中美贸易关系的敏感时刻，芝加哥联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)的研究员们表示，美国从中国进口工业品的不断增长总体上有利于美国经济发展。
芝加哥联邦储备银行发布了有关经济发展问题的11月份报告，银行经济学家威廉?特斯塔(William Testa)、杰依?辽(Jay Liao)和阿列克谢?泽列涅夫(Alexei Zelenev)在其中一篇报告中表示，中国经济的快速发展事实上使美国消费者从中受益。
他们补充说，对于一些美国公司而言，中国市场的开放使其有机会增加制成品和服务的对华出口，或拓展在中国的投资和生产项目。 他们同时写道，进口自中国产品的增长对美国国内制造商也形成了挑战，并推动他们降低成本以维持竞争力。报告称，虽然美国的制造业目前确实遇到了麻烦，但这主要应归咎于生产能力的过剩以及过去几年经济环境的疲软。
中国出口剧增已成为日益引起争议的政治问题，并在最近两国的高层官员会议中成为重要议题。
随著美国制造商声称人民币币值被低估并进而压低了美国商品的价格，美国已敦促中国政府采取更加灵活的汇率制度，以此作为解决贸易失衡的举措。
来自中国的进口商品在维持美国国内价格稳定中扮演的角色仍引起争议。
从2002年春起美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, Fed)的官员一直声称，美国经济增长面临的最大威胁是本已处于低水平的物价涨幅会有可能进一步下降。这同时也是许多经济学家认为Fed将在未来一段时间甚至在国内经济日益增长时仍维持较低利率的主要原因。
掀起红色风暴
在芝加哥联邦储备银行的研究员们看来，中美间的贸易关系一直在急剧变化。1997年至2002年期间，两国整体贸易量每年平均增长12.5%，这一速度是美国与墨西哥间贸易量增长速度的两倍左右，而后者还与美国签订有自由贸易协议。
分析师写道，虽然美国向中国的出口量也在增加，但增幅却明显低于中国对美出口的增长速度。2001年进口自中国的制成品占据了美国国内市场的2.7%，而1989年时这一比例仅为0.4%。
但许多人目前认为，严重失衡的贸易关系未必是美国制造业产品昂贵所造成的。
在某种程度上，进口产品满足了美国市场的增长需求。研究员们表示，日益增多的进口产品并未取代国内产品，反而是在满足美国国内对某些产品不断增长的需求。
芝加哥联邦储备银行的研究员们认为，美国制造业目前的困境主要是国内因素造成的。
他们的报告称，造成美国制造业目前疲软的主要原因不是进口和生产外包的增加，而是经济普遍走软及生产过剩。与此同时，世界其他地区经济增长的放缓也抑制了对美国所产商品的需求。
