Future for China May Be Consumers, Not Factories
China's full-throttle economy is pushing up share prices for big industrial companies at a breakneck pace. But now, as signs mount that growth may ease next year, some analysts are sending a new message to investors: sell industrial stocks and replace them with companies that cater to Chinese consumers.
China's long-buoyant economy has been notching impressive gains, recording 9.1% year-to-year growth for the recently ended third quarter. And it's setting the pace for 8.5% growth for the year, government statisticians who are usually conservative project. The rates mark a breakout even for China, which clocked 7% to 8% annual growth for the past five years.
This upsurge has been mirrored by soaring share prices for Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks these so-called H-shares, climbing 85% this year, making it one of the world's best performers. Leading the way are companies feeding the economic boom: makers of steel and cement, and energy providers. Hong Kong-traded shares of Chongqing Iron & Steel, located in a rapidly developing metropolis deep in the interior, have more than tripled in the past six months. Huaneng Power International, a power producer whose American depositary receipts are traded in New York, has seen its Hong Kong shares skyrocket 92% this year on the back of torrid demand for electricity.
But accompanying the rising growth are doubts about whether the rate is too robust to be sustained. Among the doubters is the Chinese government, which for years has prized high growth above all. That shift is altering in the way analysts view China-related investments, causing some to question whether it is time to change tack, away from highflying backbone industries such as steelmakers. Shares in these companies "could be at their peak," says Jing Ulrich, head of Greater China Equities for Deutsche Bank Securities.
Ms. Ulrich and other analysts suggest investors move to sectors largely driven by burgeoning consumer demand: chain stores or cellphone-service operators, for example. But timing is everything. Analysts say it's too early to tell whether the growth has reached its apogee, meaning investors could lose out on more gains in heavy-industry shares. And domestic demand, an economic laggard in recent years, is an unproven growth engine in China.
Still analysts and the government alike have reason to rethink where the economy is heading, and problems with the fast-paced growth argue that gains should be locked in now. Underpinning the surging growth is an explosion in bank lending that is being plowed into fixed-asset investments, from upscale property development to factory expansion. Such investment accounted for more than 42% of the economic growth in the first three quarters this year, analysts and economists say, reaching a level that exceeds the days of economic overheating in 1992-1993, when growth and inflation galloped in double digits. One result today is a growing property bubble and signs of excess capacity in manufacturing.
The challenge now facing the government, economists say, is to cool overheated investment without choking off consumer demand. It's a predicament that is putting to test lessons learned by the government during previous economic difficulties in the past decade. Since the severe downturns of other Asian economies in 1997-1998, China has relied on two key components for growth: exports, whose vigorous expansion is largely attributed to hefty foreign investment, and government-backed infrastructure projects.
To make this shift, Chinese leaders so far are reaching for selective remedies, from tightening lending criteria for luxury real-estate projects to raising the reserve requirement for banks to sop up some of the excess money in circulation. Beijing is reducing debt- and deficit-backed funding for public-works projects. Exports also are being targeted with a reduction in a key subsidy, the rebate on export taxes. "They have decided they no longer need this stimulus," says Hong Liang, China economist for Goldman Sachs Group in Hong Kong.
Helping this transition along, Ms. Liang says, is a surprising acceleration in private consumption that began in mid-2002. Knocked off track this spring by the SARS epidemic, demand has rebounded strongly with spending by urban households climbing steeply this summer, rising 25% in August over the same month last year, Ms. Liang says.
The surge is partly a payoff from years of slowly accruing growth and policies to encourage private home ownership. Urban Chinese -- 400 million people -- have seen household incomes rise by an annual average 11% the past four years, giving them spending power that is reaching critical mass.
Yet, in a sign of the difficulties the government is grappling with, some of the policies bolstering consumer demand are contributing to the investment-led surge Beijing wants to pull back. Consumer credit, hardly available five years ago, accounted for 8% of all bank lending this year, funding a wave of auto purchases in particular but also raising alarms among government regulators about the potential for a new crop of bad loans in an already troubled banking sector.
With consumer demand and investment-led growth so intertwined, any retrenchment is expected to be mild, analysts say. That means makers of steel and other industrial commodities are likely to see more growth in the next year, as will companies catering to urban consumers.
"The economy may slow down," says Zhang Xi, an analyst with UOB Kay Hian. "But in absolute terms it will still be growing."
中国经济的未来关键或在消费者
中国经济全速增长，带动大型工业股价格急速攀升。然而随著越来越多的迹象显示明年经济增长可能放缓，一些分析师也开始向投资者发出新的信号：抛售工业类股，买入消费类股。
中国经济的增速一向惊人，在刚刚结束的第三季度中，又达到了较上年同期增长9.1%的水平。第三季度的增长为中国能够实现官方统计部门预测的全年增长8.5%目标奠定了基调。中国官方统计部门的预测向来保守，但他们这次给出的8.5%还是较以往有了突破，因为中国经济增长率近5年来一直都保持在7%到8%之间。
这种增长势头也反映到了香港上市的国企股走势中。追踪大陆H股的恒生国企指数今年以来已累计上扬了85%，为全球表现最好的股指之一。而领涨国企指数的恰恰是可称做经济发展主动力的公司股票，像钢铁、水泥和能源类股，其中代表西部快速发展企业的重庆钢铁(Chongqing Iron & Steel)股价过去6个月中就上涨了超过两倍，而华能国际(Huaneng Power International)受国内电力需求高涨的推动，今年以来股价也攀升了92%。华能国际还发行了美国存托凭证，在纽约证交所上市。
但是，伴随著中国经济增长不断加快，人们也开始对如此快速的增长到底能维持多久产生了疑虑，质疑者中甚至包括了近年来一直为经济高速增长倍感自豪的中国政府。这种变化也使分析师对中国概念股的看法出现了转变，部分市场人士开始考虑是否应该改变策略，撤出钢铁等经济支柱产业类股。德银证券(Deutsche Bank Securities)大中华区股票投资负责人Jing Ulrick说，这些公司的股票有可能已经见顶。
Ulrich及其他分析师表示，投资者应转向大众消费类股，例如连锁店经营商和移动电话服务运营商。但时机就是一切。分析师说，现在断言经济增速已达到极限还为时过早，因此如果投资者现在抛售重工业类股，还有可能损失一些进一步获利的机会。而近年来增长最慢的国内消费需求未来能否成为推动中国经济增长的主动力，目前还是个未知数。
尽管如此，分析师和政府对中国经济的未来发展产生质疑也并非全无道理，面对经济快速发展中所出现的种种问题，人们是有理由及早锁定利润、落袋为安的。经济高速增长的背后，掩藏著银行贷款发放额过高的隐忧，而这些贷款大部分还是流入了固定资产投资领域，从高档房地产开发到工厂设备扩张，不一而足。分析师和经济学家们指出，这类投资占今年前三个季度总体经济增长的42%，甚至超过了1992-1993年经济过热期的水平，当时中国的经济和通货膨胀率增速均达到双位数水平。而银行信贷攀高在今天表现出的结果是房地产业出现泡沫，制造业产能过剩。 经济学家们认为，中国政府当前面临的挑战是如何在给过热的投资降温的同时，保证消费需求不受伤害。对这一难题的处理刚好可以反映出，中国政府从过去10年所经历的经济困境中，是否真正接受了教训。中国经济增长在1997-1998年亚洲经济危机后，一直依赖出口和政府基础建设这两个环节拉动，而对外出口的增长又主要是靠不断增长的外来投资所带动。
为实现既抑制投资过热、又拉动内需的目标，中国领导人迄今采取了多管齐下的策略，从收紧高档房地产项目的贷款审批标准，到通过提高商业银行贷款准备金额度来吸收过量的现金流，可谓从多个环节入手。中国政府同时还在减少以发债和单纯扩大财政支出的方法为公共设施项目融资的做法，并宣布以降低出口退税的方式，缩减对出口企业的补贴。高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)驻香港的中国经济师梁虹(音译：Hong Liang)认为，这说明中国政府已确认不需要再靠发放补贴的手段来刺激经济增长了。
梁虹指出，中国的个人消费也自2002年中期以来出人意料地快速增长，它客观上也推动了中国经济重心的转移。她表示，虽然今春爆发的非典(SARS)疫情使个人消费增长势头出现反复，但从今夏城市家庭消费支出增加的情况看，国内的个人消费需求业已反弹回升。今年8月份的中国城市家庭消费开支较上年同期增长了25%。
城市家庭支出的快速增长，在一定程度上是居民收入逐年增加和政府实施鼓励个人购房政策的结果。中国共有4亿城市人口，过去4年中，他们的平均家庭收入一直以年均11%的速度增长，其购买力也显著提高。
然而政府目前同时面临的一个棘手问题是，不少刺激消费需求的政策恰好会助涨投资带动下的信贷增长，而后者正是中国政府在寻求抑制的。仅仅5年前还绝无仅有的消费者信贷已在今年总体银行贷款中占据了8%，更在全国掀起了一股购车热。然而它也同时向政府监管部门亮起了警灯，吸引他们关注银行坏帐可望再度增加的隐忧。 分析师指出，由于促进消费需求和抑制投资过热之间的关系很难把握，政府抑制和削减投资的政策力度预计也会比较温和。这就意味著钢铁以及其他工业品制造企业明年里还望继续成长，而与城市居民消费相关的消费类企业也会进一步成长。
UOB Kay Hian的分析师张喜(音译：Zhang Xi)指出，中国明年的经济增长有可能放缓，但国民经济还是会持续增长。
