China's Growing Appetite Puts Strain on Commodity Suppliers
From steak to iron ore to cotton to diamonds, China's rising urban incomes, changing consumer tastes and increased exports are reshaping the world's commodity markets. The country's emergence as a major importer of raw materials is driving global prices higher and catching some suppliers flat-footed.
Consider the Texan Bar and Grill in Beijing, tucked away in a cavernous Holiday Inn. The waiters wear cowboy hats, boots and blue jeans to serve Beijing diners the restaurant's signature dish: grilled U.S. rib-eye steak. In a sign of the prosperous times in China, a growing number of Chinese can afford a substantial steak lunch, and have developed a substantial taste for one as well. China's beef imports hit record levels last year. And global beef exporters are licking their chops.
U.S. and Canadian agricultural officials expect China to import 30,000 metric tons of beef next year -- and more than 350,000 tons in 10 years, making China "our No. 1 engine of growth," says Ted Haney, president of the Canada Beef Export Federation.
Similarly, on a small island near Shanghai, Baogang Steel Group Co., the nation's biggest steel producer, has carved a new deep-water harbor to accommodate huge freighters from Brazil and Australia supplying iron ore, a crucial material used in making the steel for the auto and construction industries. This year, China will import 150 million tons of iron ore, surpassing Japan as the world's largest consumer of the commodity.
"China has sucked the cupboard bare of raw materials," says Jim Lennon, executive director of commodities research at Macquarie Bank Ltd. in London. Because of its fast growth, Mr. Lennon cautions, China "is starting to place severe strains on the global raw-materials supply chain." Those strains are driving commodity prices sharply higher.
The global rise in commodity prices has reduced fears of a very different China-related idea: that the nation's cheap exports would push the global economy into a deflationary spiral. In the U.S., prices of nonpetroleum imports fell 0.9% in the 12 months ended September 2002. But in the 12 months ended September 2003, nonpetroleum import prices rose 0.9%. "We were importing deflation from China a year ago and now we're importing inflation," says Gerald D. Cohen, senior economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York. (The deflation pressures that Mr. Cohen discusses existed only in the durable-goods sector; the U.S. economy didn't experience economywide deflation.)
The deflation debate has waned because prices of many natural resources and metals are surging, thanks to heavy Chinese demand. In the past year and a half, the cost of alumina, used to make aluminum, and nickel, which is used to make standard steel, has doubled, according to metals traders and analysts. Though it is the world's largest steel producer, steel-hungry China can't get enough scrap metal, contributing to a world-wide rise in steel-scrap prices. In the U.S., Nucor Corp., which relies on scrap steel, cited rising scrap prices for a 59% drop in profit in the third quarter ended Oct. 4 and the expectation of tough fourth-quarter results. World-wide metal inventories are at their lowest level ever, because big metal suppliers were reducing their capacity due to the economic slowdown in the U.S., Japan and Europe. But now, these companies are rushing to fill China's voracious needs. Global shipping-freight rates have skyrocketed in response to Chinese demand.
China's auto and construction craze is underpinning the global metals buying. Aside from iron ore, the country is so starved for copper that Chinese companies are importing French francs and melting them down, according to a Beijing official at China Metals & Minerals Corp. Even old computers are being picked clean of components and melted down for copper, gold and platinum. China's imports of scrap copper, which can be used in air conditioners, have increased 40% in the first eight months of the year.
"Many people in this industry are doing whatever they can do to meet the crazy demand," says Chen Tong, a researcher at Antike Information Co., a trading company in Beijing.
Variety of Factors
In part, China's surging commodity imports are a reflection of its booming exports, as factories import raw materials they need to make their finished goods. With China's textile factories hoping overseas quotas will soon be lifted, China's cotton-import volume has climbed nearly sevenfold in the year's first nine months. As China has become the world's largest wood-furniture maker, it has replaced Japan as the biggest consumer of Siberian timber, taking in 80% of those exports.
But urbanization and rising household incomes in China are also behind the surge. In September, Chinese crude-oil imports grew almost 60% from the previous year, leaving year-to-date imports up about 30%. The 9.8 million metric tons of oil China imported in September was the most in one month ever. China is expected to import a record 80 million tons of crude oil this year, up from 70 million tons in 2002.
The oil is being burned for electricity to power China's factories. But it is also fueling China's growing embrace of the automobile. Vehicle sales in China increased 30% in the first nine months of this year from year-earlier levels.
Chinese manufacturers are exporting furniture, but they are also racing to meet growing domestic demand as city dwellers decide it is now chic to have wooden furniture in their homes. Gold and platinum jewelry are becoming popular, increasing those imports. China has become Asia's second-largest consumer of diamonds after Japan. Heightening the fad: dental clinics in China's big cities that now glue the glittering stones to patients' teeth.
China's imports of polyethylene are also growing as China's industry responds to the growing popularity of plastic products and plastic packaging. Polyethylene imports into Shanghai reached 150,000 tons in January, a 105% rise from more than double the year-earlier level the same period last year.
Rising disposable incomes and mushrooming restaurants are creating markets barely visible a few years ago. Despite problems with China's agricultural inspection and quarantine regime, U.S. farm exporters are selling large quantities of cotton, soybeans and apples to China.
And, now, plenty of potatoes. In the past two years, China has climbed from nowhere to become the fourth-biggest market for frozen potatoes, according to Pat Boss, executive director of the Washington State Potato Commission.
"They are buying the french fries they couldn't afford before," he says.
China's cutting of import tariffs, in line with promises it made to join the World Trade Organization, has also reduced costs of foreign goods and increased the incentive to buy them. China's import growth this year has outpaced the country's booming exports.
For now, all the buying is helping to prop up prices at a time when the biggest economies, North America, Japan and Europe, remain in the doldrums. But the rise in demand has been so sharp that some analysts are starting to worry about what happens when China's economy cools. Some hope that middle-class Chinese could pick up the slack when industrial demand tapers off.
Average urban-household incomes in China have increased 11% a year since 1999, according to a report from Goldman Sachs published this week. And paying on credit is becoming common. Almost nonexistent five years ago, consumer loans now account for about 8% of China's total.
'The Ultimate Test'
But as suppliers build up capacity to meet China's demand, they are tying themselves to an economy many fear is feeding on easy credit that could soon dry up. A sharp decline in loans could derail the property and auto sectors and undercut purchases of raw materials. Just as China single-handedly created a global shortage for several commodities, some analysts fear global prices could collapse with a pullback in Chinese buying.
The softening in commodity prices may happen as early as January, predicts Andy Xie, regional economist in Hong Kong for Morgan Stanley. Those declines, in turn, could signal a broader slowdown. "The ultimate test for cooling is when commodity prices begin to decline," Mr. Xie says. "We have not seen that yet."
In the meantime, Chinese companies are scrambling for supplies. Through the 1990s, Wei Fangzhi, head of steel supplier Shanxi Sanlian Group, produced pig iron to make simple metal castings. The boom in auto demand prompted him last year to start producing high-grade steel for car engines. Profits are exponentially higher. Yet the industry's competition has become so intense and the scramble for imported materials so fierce that the company is fighting to survive the scramble.
"There are already too many companies making almost the same products," says Mr. Wei. "The market will crush some."
中国胃口惊人，国际原材料供应吃紧
从牛排、铁矿石到棉花和钻石，随著中国城市人口收入的不断增长，中国人消费习惯的改变正无形中左右著国际商品市场。作为原材料进口大国，中国旺盛的需求正推动国际商品价格上涨，也让一些供应商们感到措手不及。
走进北京丽都假日饭店(Holiday Inn)的德克萨斯扒房(Texan Bar and Grill)，你会看到头戴草帽、身著牛仔裤、脚蹬皮靴的服务生为客人们端上该店的特色佳肴：美式烤牛排。中国经济的繁荣发展让越来越多的中国人富裕起来，他们不仅有经济能力享用价格不菲的西餐，而且对原料的品质也颇具鉴赏力。去年中国的牛肉进口创下历史纪录，让全球牛肉出口商们心花怒放。 美国和加拿大的农业官员预计中国明年将进口3万吨牛肉，而10年内的牛肉进口量将超过35万吨。加拿大牛肉出口协会(Canada Beef Export Federation)主席泰德?汉尼(Ted Haney)说，届时中国将成为牛肉出口商的"头号增长引擎"。
在上海附近的海岛上，中国最大的钢铁生产商宝钢集团(Baogang Steel Group Co.)建成了一座新的深水港，用来靠泊巴西和澳大利亚运载铁矿石的超大型船舶。铁矿石是汽车和建筑行业钢材的重要冶炼原料。中国今年将进口1.5亿吨铁矿石，超过日本，一跃成为世界最大的铁矿石进口国。 麦格理银行(Macquarie Bank Ltd.)驻伦敦商品研究部门执行总裁吉姆?列农(Jim Lennon)说，中国在原材料方面的胃口大得惊人。他指出，由于中国经济一直保持高速增长，该国正对国际原材料供应链造成沉重压力。
实际上，多种自然资源和金属的价格已经开始上涨。据金属交易员和分析师称，在过去一年半的时间内，用来提炼铝和镍的氧化铝的价格增长了一倍。由于美国、日本和欧洲经济增长放缓，大型金属供应商均在削减产能，全球金属库存已经跌至有史以来的最低水平。如今，这些金属公司为了满足中国庞大的需求，又开始全速运转，全球的货运费率随即直线上升。
中国汽车和建筑行业的迅猛发展带动了国际金属贸易的增长。除了铁矿石，中国对铜的需求也非常旺盛。China Metals & Minerals Corp.驻北京的一名管理人士称，中国企业甚至进口法国法郎用来炼铜。就连旧电脑也被回收，拆除电子元件，用于提炼铜、黄金和铂。仅今年前8个月，中国的碎铜进口就增长了40%。在空调的生产过程中需要使用到碎铜。
北京贸易公司Antike Information Co.的研究员陈桐(Chen Tong,音译)说，"在这个行业(金属行业)，很多人都在竭尽所能，以满足疯狂增长的市场需求。"
成因复杂
在某种意义上，中国商品进口的激增反映出该国出口增长的强劲势头。许多工厂大量进口原材料，目的是加工成品并销往海外。由于国内纺织企业预计海外配额可能被取消，中国的棉花进口量今年前9个月较去年同期增长了近六倍。在成为世界最大的木制家具生产国的同时，中国也取代日本，成为西伯利亚木材的最大买家，消纳了该地区80%的木材出口。
与此同时，城市化进程和家庭收入的提高也是一个重要因素。中国9月份原油进口较去年同期增长了近60%，而今年迄今为止原油进口也增长了30%。中国9月份的原油进口量高达980万吨，是有史以来最大的单月原油进口量。预计中国今年的原油进口量将达到8,000万吨，而去年的进口量为7,000万吨。
进口的原油被用于发电，为工厂提供电力。此外，也为中国越来越多的汽车提供燃料。今年前9个月，中国的汽车销量较去年同期增长了30%。
追求时尚的城市居民对木制家具日益青睐，致使中国的家具生产商在积极出口的同时，还要尽力满足不断增长的国内需求。黄金和铂饰品的流行则带动了这两类贵金属的进口。中国成为亚洲仅次于日本的钻石消费大国，一些大城市的牙科诊所甚至用钻石来镶牙，消费风气之盛由此可见一斑。
塑料产品和包装的普及也推动了中国对聚乙烯的进口。今年1月份，上海进口了15万吨聚乙烯，较去年同期增长了一倍多。 近几年，中国家庭的可支配收入不断增长，餐馆和饭店也如雨后春笋般遍地开花，几年前还不太起眼的餐饮业开始蓬勃发展。虽然中国的农业审查和检疫机制存在一定问题，但美国农产品出口商每年向中国出口的棉花、大豆和苹果都数量庞大。
华盛顿州马铃薯协会(Washington State Potato Commission)执行董事派特?伯斯(Pat Boss)说，短短的两年内，中国摇身一变，成为全球第四大速冻马铃薯消费市场。现在，中国的马铃薯终于够吃了。
伯斯说，"中国开始进口薯条了，而以前中国买不起薯条。"
中国根据加入世界贸易组织(WTO)时的承诺下调进口关税，降低了进口产品的市面价格，这也刺激了消费者的购买欲。今年中国的进口增长速度超过了出口。目前，北美、日本和欧洲等世界主要的经济体仍处于经济疲软状态，而上述所有的消费行为正推动国际商品价格攀升。中国需求的急剧增长使一些分析师担心，一旦中国经济增长减缓，将出现难以控制的局面。也有一部分人士希望，在工业需求逐渐减少后，中国的中产阶层能够填补这一空白。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)本周公布的一份报告显示，1999年以来，中国的城市家庭平均收入增长了11%。而信贷消费也变得越来越普遍。五年前还鲜为人知的消费贷款如今已经占中国贷款总额的8%。
"最终的考验"
国际供应商们为满足中国的需求积极扩大产能，但不少人士担心，将自身业务过多地维系在中国市场上风险很大，因为支持中国经济增长的银行信贷很可能枯竭。一旦贷款大幅减少，房地产和汽车行业将陷入停滞状态，对原材料的采购也会急剧下降。一些分析师担心，正如中国一手造成了全球几大商品短缺的现象那样，一旦中国的购买力下降，全球商品价格将出现暴跌。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)亚太区经济师谢国忠(Andy Xie)预计，商品价格下降的趋势可能最早在明年1月份就会显现，而这只是更大范围内价格下降的一个前奏。他说，对需求下降的最终考验是商品价格何时开始下跌，但目前还没有这种迹象。 与此同时，中国的企业仍在奋力争取原材料。钢铁材料供应商Shanxi Sanlian Group在20世纪90年代一直生产用于加工简单金属铸件的生铁。但汽车行业需求的激增促使该公司从去年开始生产用于汽车引擎的高等级钢铁，公司利润随之成倍增长。但该行业的竞争非常激烈，对进口原材料的争夺也日趋白热化，Shanxi Sanlian要成功立足免不了一番血战。
该公司的负责人魏方志(Wei Fangzhi,音译)说："太多的企业都在生产同一种产品，总有一些企业最终会被市场淘汰。"
