China Takes Center Stage At Asean Summit
CHINA'S ROLE in regional affairs has increased steadily in step with its rapid economic growth. But for a measure of how effective, almost insistent, China's diplomacy has become, look at the giant shadow it cast over the tightly-guarded annual summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations on the Indonesian resort island of Bali in early October.
Proud of its long history of fending off interference, the 10-member association now finds that an urgent overhaulof its economic raison d'etre depends on plugging into China's economy. By signing Asean's bedrock 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation at the Bali summit and putting in building blocks for a free-trade agreement with Asean, China is forcing the regional grouping to confront its future.
For China, Asean is a useful international showcase for its own stated good intentions. Ever since its decision not to devalue its currency during the Asian financial crisis that began in 1997, Beijing has projected itself as a constructive economic player in the region. Noticeably, the new leadership since last year has even toned down its rhetoric on Taiwan.
Premier Wen Jiabao continued that charm offensive in Bali, returning over and over to the theme of China as a good neighbour and a good partner. "A more developed and stronger China will bring about development opportunities and tangible benefits to other Asian countries," he told a business summit preceding the Asean leaders' meeting. China originally proposed sending 400 business executives to Bali, but the number was cut to about 100 so as not to crowd out everyone else, organizers said.
"The China-Asean Free-Trade Area is a win-win arrangement," Wen said. By 2010, the world could see a free-trade area with nearly 2 billion people and total GDP of almost $3 trillion taking shape in Asia, the premier added.
When past Chinese leaders mouthed the rhetoric of friendship, it was taken at face value. But China's new premier has won over most of his neighbours. At a meeting in April over the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome crisis, regional leaders were impressed with Wen's easy manner and candid admission that China had handled the outbreak badly. A senior Indonesian diplomat who has met the premier describes him as "open and communicative."
With the United States -- Asia's biggest investor and trading partner -- preoccupied with the war on terrorism, the U.S.-Asean Business Council's president, Ernest Bower, noted something perhaps even more striking. "I've never seen a time when the U.S. has been so distracted and China has been so focused," he told the REVIEW. "China is focusing on Southeast Asia like a laser."
China's more friendly diplomatic style and its willingness to accelerate trade concessions and market access under the proposed free-trade area has Asean rapidly sounding more like an ally than a wary neighbour. "China wants to be seen as cooperative, friendly and economics-orientated," says Asean Secretary-General Ong Keng Yong. "It qualitatively wants to change Southeast Asia's mindset about China, which is heavy, big and overwhelming." On a visit to Beijing in September, incoming Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi dismissed the idea of China as a military threat and even echoed Wen's insistence that his country wants to be a force for peace and stability in the region.
In reality, no one believes that fear of China as a future military power has evaporated. It's more that economics is the priority. In a speech that won him a standing ovation, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra sounded the alarm. "For all of us in Asean, there is no time for complacency, no time to waste and no time to delay. With the failure at Cancun and the delay of the Doha Round, Asean should quickly shift gears into offensive mode for economic integration," he said.
Singapore and Thailand, in particular, have warned that unless Asean moves faster, it will lose the opportunity that China presents as a market of 1.3 billion people and succumb even further to the threat its giant neighbour poses as a competitor for investment.
However, as China boasted about the growing size of its investment in Asean, Japan was also reminding Asean leaders of its own important economic role in the region. India's prime minister, too, attended the Bali summit and, in a move that could eventually see it balance China's influence, also signed on to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation.
Pursuing consolidation, Asean leaders endorsed a blueprint to create a European-style economic community, which envisages a single common market and a single production base with the "free flow of goods, services and investment and the freer flow of capital." Although 2020 started out as the stated target date, Singaporean Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong and Thaksin want it implemented much sooner -- and are prepared to force the pace ahead of a more cautious approach by countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.
By failing to set an earlier deadline, Bali's Concord II declaration appeared to reflect that division and fall just short of being declared a historic document. But in pledging the removal of non-tariff barriers and authorizing significant new steps in harmonizing customs procedures and product standards, the leaders committed themselves to a 2004-10 implementation target for 100 priority sectors, ranging from wood-based products and cars to air travel and tourism.
The urgency of restoring relevance to an organization that still struggles with its own economic disparities and competing national interests effectively consigned the war on terrorism to a back seat. A year after bomb blasts tore through two Bali nightclubs, killing 202 people, Asean leaders merely pledged to strengthen national and regional capacities to tackle terrorism and the other so-called "nontraditional" crimes of drug-trafficking and people-smuggling.
And with that, Asean seemed ready to move on. Anxious to make its mark after watching its leadership role erode over the past five years, Indonesia's concept of a "security community" provides what is perceived to be the necessary balance for the economic community, launched last year. "Most of us agreed that progress had to be made on two legs, not one," explains Secretary-General Ong. "We can't have economic integration without a secure Southeast Asia."
In a significant breakthrough, the leaders declared that the security community should be promoted within a "just, democratic and harmonious environment" -- the first time that "democracy" has entered the Asean lexicon. Officials were anxious to dispel the image of a military pact, saying the community will essentially just tie together existing policies and agreements. It will also steer clear of formulating a common foreign policy or changing current operating procedures that hinge on consensus and noninterference in each other's domestic affairs.
Central to Jakarta's still-threadbare proposal, however, is the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, which prescribes a high-council mechanism to resolve border conflicts among member states. It has never been used, and Jakarta would like to change that. "Since we have it, let's make it work," says Indonesian presidential adviser Ali Alatas. "Up to now we have succeeded in damping down conflicts by shelving them and sweeping them under the carpet -- but not solving them."
Critics say that as long as the high council is a political body and not a legal one, it will lack essential credibility in trying to resolve territorial irritants -- perhaps one of the reasons why China felt comfortable about signing the treaty.
中国成为东盟首脑会议的主角
随著经济的快速增长，中国在地区事务中扮演的角色也日益重要。但要衡量中国外交的有效性和长期性，可以看中国10月初在印度尼西亚巴厘岛召开的东南亚国家联盟(Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 简称：东盟)年度首脑会议上的表现。
这个由10个成员国组成的联盟长期来有效地抵御了外部干预。该联盟目前发现，其在经济上存在的意义在很大程度上依赖于中国经济在其中的介入。中国在1976年巴厘岛召开的首脑会议上签署了《友好合作条约》(Treaty of Amity and Cooperation)，并促进实现和东盟的自由贸易协议。中国的举措正在推动该地区联盟向更深层发展。
对中国来说，东盟是表达其良好意愿的国际舞台。自1997年亚洲金融危机中中国承诺人民币不贬值以来，其一直在该地区扮演著建设性的经济角色。
温家宝总理在巴厘岛首脑会议上一再强调，中国是好邻居及合作伙伴。他在东盟首脑会议前的商界峰会上表示，一个更加发展和强大的中国将为亚洲其他国家带来发展机会和实际利益。会议组织者称，中国最初计划有400名商界管理人士出席巴厘岛会议，但为了不挤占名额，最终出席的人数被减至约100人。
温家宝称，中国－东盟自由贸易区(China-Asean Free-Trade Area)是一个双赢的协议。并补充说，到2010年，世界上将有一个人口近20亿、GDP约3万亿美元的自由贸易区在亚洲形成。
中国更加友好的外交风格，以及在计划的自由贸易区内加快贸易优惠及市场准入进程的意愿使得东盟觉得更像是一个同盟，而不是一个存有疑心的邻居。东盟秘书长王景荣称，中国希望表现得合作、友好以及关注经济事务。
新加坡和泰国表示，如果东盟不加快发展，则将丧失进入中国13亿人口市场的机会，并将进一步面临中国作为投资竞争对手的更大挑战。
但就在中国强调其对东盟不断扩大的投资规模时，日本也提醒东盟领导人其在地区经济事务中所扮演的重要角色。印度总理也参加了巴厘岛首脑会议，并且也签署了和东盟之间的《友好合作条约》，以此来最终平衡中国的影响。 为了加强联系，东盟领导人签署了一份蓝图，旨在建立类似欧洲的经济共同体，即构造单一的共同市场，统一的生产基础，实现货物、服务和投资的自由流通以及资本更加自由的流动。虽然最初预计实现上述目标的时间为2020年，但新加坡总理吴作栋和泰国总理他信(Thaksin Shinawatra)希望该目标能更快实现。两国也做好准备将这一进程在印度尼西亚、马来西亚和菲律宾谨慎的态度上向前推进。
由于首脑会议未能制定一个更早的期限，《巴厘协定II》(Bali's Concord II)反映出各国在期限上的分歧，未能成为一份历史性的文件。但各国领导人承诺取消非关税壁垒并批准了协调海关及产品标准的重要措施，从而使得各国将在2004至2010年间首先放开从木制品和汽车到航空和旅游的100个行业。
东盟仍在努力解决内部经济的不平衡以及各国间在利益上的竞争。恢复东盟存在意义的迫切要求使得反恐战争退居次席。在巴厘岛两家夜总会发生爆炸，导致202人死亡的1年后，东盟领导人仅承诺加强各国及地区力量，打击恐怖主义以及毒品走私和人口贩卖等其他所谓非传统犯罪活动。
在上述基础上，东盟似乎已经做好了更进一步的准备。印度尼西亚领导层的作用在过去5年内受到了侵蚀后，该国急于发挥其作用。其提出的安全共同体概念为去年提出的经济共同体提供了一个必须的平衡。王景荣解释说，大多数成员国都同意东盟必须在两方面都取得进展，而不止是一方面。没有东南亚安全的环境，经济上的融合将无法实现。
首脑会议实现了一项重要的突破。领导人宣布安全的共同体需要建立在公正、民主和和谐的环境基础之上。这是东盟字典里第一次出现民主这一概念。各国官员都迫切希望摆脱军事联盟的形象。他们称，东盟将把现行的政策和协议结合起来。其将不会制定共同的对外政策或改变目前以各成员国达成共识及互不干涉国内事务为中心的合作模式。
然而印尼计划的核心仍是《友好合作条约》。该条约旨在通过一个最高委员会机制来解决成员国间在边境问题上的冲突。但该机制从未被使用过，而印尼希望对其作出改变。印尼总统顾问阿里?阿拉塔斯(Ali Alatas)表示，既然有这个机制就应该利用它。到目前为止，对于冲突的处理方式还只是暂时搁置，而不是解决。
评论人士表示，只要最高委员会是一个政治而不是司法机构，则在解决领土争端时将缺乏威性。这也可能是中国愿意签署该条约的原因之一。
